1/3, 400eff., villain is a good player, will make moves and fight for pots, but I still don't know him too well.

folds to me in LP with 89, I raise 16, V calls in BB.

Flop (35): KK9dd

He checks, I bet 25, he calls.

Turn (85): Ao

Check, check.

River: 4o

He leads 55.

Hero?

I'd think you can range V better than I, but going with the following range, we're getting 32.5% equity > 28.2% required.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Kd9dKsAh4c
Equity Win Tie
67.55% 61.82% 5.73% { TT-22, K9s+, Q9s, J9s, T9s, AdJd, QdJd, AdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Qd8d, Td8d, Ad7d, 8d7d, Ad6d, 7d6d, Ad5d, 6d5d, Ad4d, 5d4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, K9o+, Q9o, J9o, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AsJd, AcJd, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AsTd, AcTd, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ad9c, Ah9d, As9d, Ac9d, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ad8c, Ah8d, As8d, Ac8d, Ad7h, Ad7s, Ad7c, Ah7d, As7d, Ac7d, Ad6h, Ad6s, Ad6c, Ah6d, As6d, Ac6d, Ad5h, Ad5s, Ad5c, Ah5d, As5d, Ac5d, Ad4h, Ad4s, Ad4c, Ah4d, As4d, Ac4d, Ad3h, Ad3s, Ad3c, Ah3d, As3d, Ac3d, Ad2h, Ad2s, Ad2c, Ah2d, As2d, Ac2d }
32.45% 26.73% 5.73% { 9h8c }

Not sure how many Ax combos float this flop, so I included ones I w/ a diamond. This also assumes his plan was to trap and let you double barrel. Some of the stronger hands might lead at some point.

EDIT 2: Vs someone I still don't know though, I'd err on the side of caution & assume there's less FD & low pockets in his range. In that case, we're crushed.

I don't think ranging really helps us here. I believe there are enough possible value hands and enough possible bluffing hands in his range that whether we should bluff catch depends almost entirely on his tendencies and his reading of our hand.

So let's read our hand.

We opened with a raise in LP. He should put us on two valid cards, probably not complete junk but a pretty wide range here.

Comes a dry flop and we cbet. That almost certainly means we still have two valid cards (i.e. we would likely bet our entire range here).

Then an A comes and we check it back. If we were bluffing, we might bluff again, since it's an OK bluffing card. We might check back a monster (because the A is likely to get fold, which is what makes it an OK bluffing card), but we might also continue betting the K, hoping that he has an A. From his perspective, the A and our check doesn't really clarify our range -- we still could have nearly every hand we had pre, but it probably does slightly shade our range away from monsters.

V then fires out about 2/3 the pot on a completely blank river. Given that he probably thinks we have nearly our entire preflop range on the river, this is a good bluffing opportunity. We're likely to have at least 40% of our range snap folding here, which is all that's needed to make the bluff profitable. Our turn check slightly tends to cap our range, making the bluff slightly more appealing.

I think we have to snap this off. This is probably roughly breakeven. Against a player who's actually playing with nearly the right frequencies, we'd need to call this 60% of the time to make him indifferent to attempting to bluff. In this case, I'd call because I think the board and action have likely tended to increase his bluffing frequency.

Pre is way too big from LP. And unless you are the BTN, fold pre. Even if you were, I'd recommend most players to just fold pre anyway.

AP, call

This is reallly close.
My thoughts:
-This is not a super dry flop because there are some gutter draws +FDs possible.

-If we're opening 98o then we're likely opening a lot of Kx which puts us pretty low in our range.
-Checking back the turn really caps our range. If V is smart like you say then he knows this, and I am probably stabbing a lot of rivers to this action also. If you had Kx then you're certainly betting turn.
-Tbh because NFDs playing this way + Kx, we may just be behind too much. But if he bets all his busted draws on the river then it's a call. However, some busted FDs may have been 3bet pre based on his tendencies + your image. Would he 3b 67s? A5s? This affects his postflop range in an SRP. I think without knowing this info then I fold but it's very close. If I have more info then I could easily find a call.


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Just fold and silently berate yourself for playing this hand.

Sounds like this is the last guy we want to be involved in the pot with (even with our position), especially one that is getting bloated, and since he's the BB he's likely going to be our opponent. I probably just fold preflop unless I'm Button/CO in which case I might just open limp to encourage idiots to get into the pot and keep the pot as small as possible until I decide I want to make it big.

I check back the flop against this guy. Against someone like this with this mediocre of hand, I'm looking to get to showdown for as cheap as possible. Getting check/raised on the flop or him donking the turn (which he'll often do) sucks so much. Even though our hand is likely best and we risk giving free cards, I'd much rather risk that than building a huge pot and/or getting blown off it.

Like our turn check.

A draw did bust, and this guy seems like he could be aggro against weakness, so I'm probably leaning towards a call on the river. Not in love with it cuz I think a flush draw often checks/raise the flop to rep the K, so might be pretty meh.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think as played you have to call this, if villan is a good player he will recognise our line, and will use this line to defend vs pre-flop raise +c-bet relatively liberally, knowing we can turn up at the river with a bunch of air as played it's a good spot for villan to bluff steal,I therfore pay this off, but recognise Its probably just a break even call in the long run....
If your going to play 89o your going to find yourself in this sort of spot pretty often...
I personally like a different line here and would Check back the flop alot of the time, I Dont feel like betting accomplishes a whole lot and it allows us to control the size of the pot, it also keeps our range wide, as we can easily check back a king here for deception also...
This allows us to call a turn bet if villan fires pretty comfortably.... It will be a balls out play for villan to fire two Streets without a king, so we of he fires turn and river you can fold river pretty confidently...
If villan checks the turn, we can decide weather to go for a spot of value, or check back and see the river deciding weather to value bet then....
Being in position allows us to control this pot, we don't want to put more than 1 Street into this hand, and checking back the flop gives us more manovrability and Information than betting does...

Fold pre and call. All the draws missed so should be slightly +EV

Why did you open to $16? If you are on the BTN and want to play this hand make it $10-12. Otherwise just fold pre.

all villain dependent here. on paper we fold cause low limit players dont bluff enough for this to be profitable.

sidenote- i got an indian friend named evvy who goes by kler hahaha. i know you are not him.

I'm fine the with raise and bet on the flop. Connectors provide lots of ways to hit the flop and you aren't really looking to get to showdown anyway. Paired flops are also good, especially in this case where you have a piece of it. A pair of 7s isn't thinking they are good against your range.

However, lots of players decide to slow play a king in this situation. So if you have the tendency to slow play trips or the villain doesn't know you well, you'd be better off to check the flop and fire on the turn. You'll get the easier fold then.

On the river, all you beat is a bluff. It just come down to how often you think he'll bluff in this situation. If he's bluffing 30% of the time, you call. That is a high % of the time.

This flop contains many draws which missed

Interesting responses; I (op) am actually inclined to think it's pretty surely a fold. I'm betting flop to get called by draws and A-highs, maybe some little pairs. Checking back flop and calling turn/folding river seems okay to me too, but I don't like just letting him try to hit and then hoping he'll bluff if he misses, it's too passive.

His A-highs got there (probably he has quite a few of them), and I actually think the A makes it a bad board for him to bluff his missed draws. I could easily be checking back an A, planning to snap off river, if I had air it's a good card to barrel... my check in general suggests I want to pot conrol and get to showdown, more so than that I'm just giving up on the hand. Right?

Is it a good way to bluff though? floating OOP, then firing when I x/back the turn? It makes the river bet so easy to call, it doesn't hold much weight, and the check on the turn might suggest I have showdown value just as much as it could mean I have air, especially when the turn provides barreling opportunities, such as here. Personally I don't often try take this line when OOP, though sometimes I find myself there on favorable boards (low cards, draws coming in).

As for betting the flop, I think I probably have the best hand a ton of the time. I agree I only want one street of betting, but here on the flop I will get called very wide, since I'll be c-betting very wide on this board; now I happen to have a hand, and can get value. On the other hand, perhaps your right; I could do the same on the turn, although there is always the chance V will draw out

Against aggro players who are capable of making moves and fighting for pots, a passive line with a showdownable hand is often the nut line.

GimoG

Excellent post!