2/5 game
Ran into a tough spot here
Hero $1300: been quite active the last few orbits
Villain about $600-650 joined the table about an hour ago, been playing quite tight but has opened the 2-3 hands he has played.

Preflop:
Villain in MP tanks, limps in, btn limps, sb completes
Hero is in the bb with AcTc and raises it to $30
Villain tanks then calls, btn and sb folds.

All the tanking made me a little suspicious that he was thinking about making move or was slowplaying a big hand

Flop: $70
Ad6h3h

Hero checks, MP tanks... bets $40, Hero calls

Turn: $150
4d
Hero checks, MP tanks... bets $85, Hero calls

River: $320
5d
Hero checks, MP tanks... bets $350, Hero????

Gross runout, but this guy isn't repping too much. I don't think that this particular villain is going to be betting his 2pairs for this size or his sets. So he either has a flush, a straight, or air. I also don't know if he would bet a straight to this size. Really polarizing spot. He also left himself with about $75-100, why did he not bet ALLIN? The runout is perfect for a bluff and I have a hand that doesn't block any of his bluffs so I go into a deep tank...

Weird spot but I don't see how you can fold at any point. Your hand kind of looks like KK and this is up near the top of your check/calling range. That river bet sizing is going to be bluff heavy, you'd think. He could have made his hand OTR with 76s or something, but if he had something like a set it would be very weird to bet halfpot-ish twice then size way up on this river. I doubt he backed into a flush, for one thing I'd expect him to size larger OTT if he bets a flush draw there.

yeah his sizings do not make much sense. Also idk what kind of hands this player is going to be open limping when he plays a mixed strat of limping and open raising. I feel like the limps are heavily weighted towards small pp 22-66. Then maybe some scs and some Kxs, Qxs.
I think his turn sizing is to bluff me off all my PP 88-KK, which I doubt I would fold on this drawy-heavy board anyways. Esp to that sizing.

This is a fold. V simply has way more value combos than bluffs.

Just because we don’t block the nfd OTF does not mean we have to call down that rare 3rd barrel from Llsnl players.

I think you played it well, but this guy has to be pretty aggro for me to call down here.

Llsnl, someone is going to have to show me they are capable of taking this line as a bluff for me to consider calling, because population wise 3 barelling with an overbet on the river they just have it the vast majority of the time.

Yeah, this feels right.

Turning a medium strength hand in to a bluff catcher isn't a horrible strategy, but I find a more straightforward approach usually works best here. Just c-bet the flop and go from there.

On this board it's not too difficult to pull the trigger though. The board ran out perfectly to run a big bluff. I also find his barrels quite weak as they are half-pot bets. If I had a draw, I would be betting a lot larger OTT so I could setup a nice pot-sized river shove. It seems like this V was betting small to get me off my 88-KK and then might have realised I am not one to fold so fast and then bombed the river when it got very scary.

Yeah but you need a read that V is super aggro to pull this off. Your V description was that he was tight. Are you really giving some low stakes abc player the credit to run a 3barrel bluff when he never gets involved in hands as his standard play?

Only hyper LAGS are going to attempt this, and still is less likely on A high boards.

I'm not sure why you think Villain couldn't have 2-pair or sets. All of his actions from PF forward are consistent with hands like 33/66/small aces.

I'm folding the river and feeling OK about it.

He's never overbetting that river (4 straight and 3 flush) with two pair or sets. LLSNL players basically always check those behind on this river, regardless of how rarely we actually have a straight or flush.

Tough spot, I'd likely find a fold given his descript. Especially so if you can put hands like Ah2h/Ah5h/Ah7h in his pf calling range. He's probably not over betting river with A5, though if he puts you on the typical AK, he may.

Pre - I'd squeeze higher, at least $40.

Villain doesn't really rep 2-pair or sets because of his bet sizings on the previous streets. Why is he half-potting when there are lots of draws out there that can kill his action and when one of those cards hit the river, he decides to bomb it?

Pre, absolutely go bigger, I would make it $45 as oop, and 3limpers (mp, btn, sb). I don't agree V is slowing play a big hand, it is like a marginal hand trying to see flop cheap.

Flop - AP, I would bet small.

River is fold, V could have 67dd, 57hh, 78hh or so. I don't think most V would pot size with a single 7, bdflush or 78 is possible.

I guess it comes down to which is more likely:

1) Villain makes some awkward bet sizes with a hand that is either a flopped set or flopped/turned/rivered 2-pair?

2) Villain has a worse ace or busted draw and decided to bluff-shove the river?

Do we really believe #2 happens more than 1/3 of the time when he makes this river shove?

I'm folding.

More pre and bet the flop.

As played, fold. You lose to pretty much every limped Axs as well as any 7x, 2x or backdoor diamonds.

starting with pre flop

limp range here is a lot of low pocket pairs, every one of which beats you

you are right that this is a good bluff line but this flop really nails his open limp range imo and we got maybe second worst card in the deck besides the 5h on the river. give him the pot imo, can't fault you for being a non believer tho, this flop actually just flat out misses all drawing hands and hearts missed on the river too, and it's so obvious a bluff/value spot that even the worst players should recognize it. i want to call too

Results
I folded cos being a hero isn't really going to make you a lot of $ at low stakes but instantly regretted it as I am curious cat and his line smelled like a bluff. He did the whole phew I was bluffing thing and mucked his cards which at the time I thought was genuine but now im pretty skeptical of it.
I saw this guy do a suicide bluff the other day vs someone that obviously had trips. It was in a much smaller pot and he ended up betting half pot on the river after a small turn x/r. He was attempting this suicide bluff vs a fish though so i dont know how to read into it....
Guess I will never know about this one. I think in theory this should be a call atleast some of the times. Maybe next time I will just flip a coin to reach my decision

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I also think I normally would bet the flop here but this guy was tanking like 30-45 secs per decision which made me curious what he would do if I checked it to him.

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If you want to take a street off I’d make it the turn or ideally the river. I think the hand plays a lot more smoothly and straightforward when you start with a flop bet.

im betting flop and betting turn... you hand looks like TT-KK, scared of the ace.
if he called me twice and this river comes, i might still check/fold.