I was just wondering if I'm over thinking the idea of maximizing value in every hand here. This is purely a question based on best decision based on a strong read of the villain.

1/2 at Casino Niagara.

Hero is on the Btn with 89

Limped 5 ways (myself included)

Pot is $31

A8 K

BB checks, UTG+1 leads for $10 (everyone folds, I call (floating) and BB check/folds)

Pot is now $51

Turn is a 10

Board now reads: A8 K 10

Villain checks, I check behind.
(I've played with the Villain for 5 hours in this session and have seen many of his showdown hands. He has played mostly a loose passive style where I've seen him check/raised the nuts on the river 4 separate times. At this point, I put him on a weak top pair holding like A2-A7 (mostly because he made the bet and hasn't done so with much else thus far). So, I floated him to try to take advantage of his non-folding style (if the situation presents itself deeper in the hand). Effective stack is 300bb's

River is: J

Board now reads: A8 K 10 J

Villain leads with a $15 bet.

My read on him is that it feels like a blocking bet on the 4 flush. I can now beat a weak ace or even 2 pair with my 9 high flush. Although I'm losing to the A, Q

I thought about it for a bit and went through his prior HH so far this session and felt pretty good that he didn't have the nuts, because he would have checked oop (to induce a bet, or a bluff by me so that he could make his signature check/raise). I also couldn't see him doing it with the 2nd nuts (Q) but I wasn't convinced that he wouldn't value bet a Q high flush either... but he was passive.

I felt like all I had was basically a bluff catcher. He appeared to "look" relaxed. Even strumming his fingers on the table. I thought to myself "Is he posturing and trying to "act" comfortable here?"

So I reached in my stack for calling chips and noticed from my peripheral that he froze mid strum and when I turned my head to squarely face him, he resumed strumming. I felt very strongly that he was bluffing and that my hand was very likely good, so I hesitated for a bit (debating wether i should min raise to induce a bluff shove) but I elected to go with the safest play. So, I called and he flipped over A 5

My question is. When I have a strong read that I'm being bluffed on a scary board when my hand is middling strong, (like a 9 high flush)... should I have min raised him with the intention of inducing/calling an over bet bluff/shove? Am I missing an opportunity to extract more value by his $15 call, or spewy re-bluff or would that have been too high risk/low reward of a play?

Before I read this post I want to say that you should almost never check or bet to induce a bluff at LLSNL... No one ever bluffs, and they are surely not gonna check raise bluff on the river. Anyone who thinks this leveling themselves.

First of all, fold pre. Second, you floated and Villain showed weakness of the turn and checked behind? Third, no, you shouldn't raise small to induce a 3bet bluff on the river. The first thing you wrote is 'villain is passive' when he bets this river that means he has a flush, most likely an Ax hand. If you think you're being bluffed then call, don't raise because your only gonna get called by worse, no one is ever going to re-bluff you.

LLSNL players think either at level 0 or level 1 which means they are only playing their hand, they aren't thinking about what you think they have or what you think they think you think they have. That means your thought process should only be at level 2 and never higher. When you are raising the river small to induce a 3bet bluff that's level 3 and it has no place in LLSNL. You are just leveling yourself and losing.

How can we be "floating" when we have a piece of the flop? Additionally, if we are really "floating", then why aren't we betting the turn when he checks; that's the whole point of floating. Floating is when we have nothing on the flop, call the flop bet IP, and then plan to take it away it on the turn.

Little confused how the pot is $31 after 5 limpers preflop.


I'm ok with limping the button here, but just fold the flop. There's really no reason to continue here. You have no read on villain's range, you have little invested in the pot, you have a passive villain betting into you, and you have bottom pair. let it go. There's no reason to get tricky in a small pot.

Sorry about the numbers. I tried editing that mistake after posting, but it wouldn't let me.

The reason I said that I was "floating" was because he was passive and his flop bet told me that he had top pair (which meant that my bottom pair was "nothing" ... just yet) and I felt that my read on this guy was pretty accurate.

His MO was that he limped weak, raised only premium hands pre flop, did not bet his draws, has only limp pre/bet flop with top pair (thus far) and has always check/raised the river oop with the nuts. Basically, I just wanted to get into pots in position on this guy at every opportunity.

I've been able to put him on hands and was pretty spot on (the many times I got to see his holdings) at showdown. I recall tne guy to my left commenting to me how Villain never bets out with his strong hands on the river when he's out of position. Preferring to check raise (which I noticed already)

Since he was passive, and I had a strong feeling that he hit ... I didn't think he would fold top pair even if it was a weak ace, (so I wasn't prepared to put more money in the pot on the turn, or at least just yet).

When he lead out on the river with a bet on a 4 flush, I couldn't see him holding the nuts or 2nd nuts, because I felt that he would've checked it to me (to c/r). Had he of checked, my plan was to check behind and give up, but the fact tthat he did bet and froze the instant that I reached for my chips, I was convinced that he was bluffing.

So, aside from the way the hand played out or how we got to the river (because it wasn't how I was hoping the hand would unfold anyways)....

My question is, (and the purpose of this post is) if you are confident about the reliability of your live tell on your opponent and feel very strongly (almost positive) that your opponent's river bet is a bluff AND you have a middling hand that can beat bluffs... is the correct play to:

1: Call his bet and win, or ...

2: Make a raise (such as a min raise) that a proven "calling station" will likely make (reluctantly) with top pair for razor thin value, (or to simply re-open the betting to hopefully bait him into running a bluff on you)?

My gut feeling was that 70%+ of the time I could've gotten a crying call out of him and 25% of the time... he finds a fold for his weak ace (less likely in this particular hand because he happened to have the 5 ) And maybe 5% of the time he makes a gift wrapped, spewy bluff shove???

I dunno. Just wondering when a tell is verified and you're confident that your read is dead on... just call to catch his bluff or go for thin value? Am I missing something for even considering this or is that what the margin is to be successful at maximizing every hand?

Yes? No? Why, or why not?

Fold pre, definitely fold flop. Raising river is terrible. Nobody is going to bluff reraise at 1/2.

Thanks for posting.

I was just brushing up on my poker terminology here on 2+2 just in case was incorrectly using the wrong term when I said one thing, but might have meant something else?

Here is what it said about floating:

Float - You call a bet with a marginal hand or draw, usually on the flop while in position, with the intent of stealing the pot on a later street.

So to clarify, I put him on top pair and even though I had bottom pair, I floated his bet in position to outplay him later in the hand (not necessarily on the turn).

Anyways, I hope this clears that part up for everyone.

I may have confused things by recreating the hand, because the way in which we arrived to the river was not the point of my post.

To simplify... speaking strictly in terms of going for thin value... is it best to call (what strongly appears to be) a bluff on the river with a hand that you feel is best, or to make a small raise knowing that the majority of the time they will b/f and sometimes call?

(As in this case. Say we saw his cards. He had TPWK to a 4 flush where his weak kicker backed him into the bottom end of the flush. Which happened to be the 5th lowest flush). Is there a case to make a small irritation raise for the slim chance of eeking a bit more value from your hand?

That is all I'm interested in knowing. I agree that (in a vacuum) that I should have folded pre flop, then post flop. But in truth I wasn't really playing my hand so much as I was just trying to play in position vs someone who I felt was a transparent player. Maybe that was bad, prolly was but that wasn't what my post was about.

Thanks Dre. I've never heard the term "float" used when one has a "marginal hand or draw" If we have a draw and call, I don't really consider that a float. I've always heard the term "float" used when we have, as Norman Chads says, "Squadoosh".

And yes, your right about "...later street". I should of said the turn or the river.

The one street you have focused on in this thread is ironically the only one you haven't butchered.

I don't think you can induce at these limits.. having said that its quite possible to get called by worse. You have to evaluate whether that is a reasonable expectation. Based on your perceived value raising range and bluffing frequency. Put more simply .. how much of a station the villain is.

in general i wouldn't make a habit of raising this river and expecting to be shown worse.

more importantly fold pre, and fold flop... these are the important consideration you need to take on board.

yeah pretty much this

pre is a fold unless deep but its whatever tbh.

fold flop
turn is must bet given the flop call, perfect turn

river call or fold raising is bad. prob leaning towards call vs most bad players lately ive seen offsuit Qx here and just any club betting otr because they have a flush like even 2 srs

EDIT: lol just saw result

trying to induce a reraise from air on this type of board is suicide. However the former thing you said about turning hand into bluff is sort of ok in some spots. turning the bottom of your range into bluff might show a bigger profit but not relevant in this scenario since he never folds better or doesnt fold enough.

Thanks guys!