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bluff AI on turn? bluff AI on turn?

04-06-2014 , 06:53 PM
1-2 sat night at local
been at table for 30 mins. Been fairly active, raised ip twice ($14) with follow through and won (V2 was in one of those hands)... showed tpgk for another small pot i have around $260

V1 reg asian guy prob better than me post flop has around $1200
V2 unknown guy 30/40ish also with around $1000

limps to me in co, I raise to $14 with 10 j
V2 bb calls
V1 mp calls
2 other callers

flop (80ish)
8KQr

chks round to me...

I bet $50 (so here I'm b/f and AI if no scary cards on the turn)
V2 bb takes a while n calls
V1 mp takes a while n calls
fold, fold

Turn ($230) 8

Chk, chk...

I take a little time (10 sec) and ship it....

So this is me trying to lol 'expand' my game a little. I think I have a pretty good read on both V's.

Reg V1 would defo raise in mp with AK, AQ, KG and also rr flop bet with top 2... I also know he can make a fold and doesn't see me as a bluffy kind of player .

New guy V2... saw me raise IP and take it with a cbet twice... would that make me 'tricky' to him? he also has a lot of chips and i guess he could just think its no big deal and call with Kx...

Am I even vaguely on the right track here with my thinking/planning? or waaaay of....
thx
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-06-2014 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calidesto
1-2 sat night at local
been at table for 30 mins.
Been fairly active, raised ip twice ($14) with follow through and won (V2 was in one of those hands)... showed tpgk for another small pot i have around $260

V1 reg asian guy prob better than me post flop has around $1200
V2 unknown guy 30/40ish also with around $1000

limps to me in co, I raise to $14 with 10 j
V2 bb calls
V1 mp calls
2 other callers

flop (80ish)
8KQr

chks round to me...
...
everything in red is why I don't like your line.

what range of hands do you put them on to call your flop c-bet. Everyone at 1/2nl instinctively puts the preflop raiser on AK, so what does it say when the board hits K Q 8r and you c-bet and they BOTH call.

Their ranges are primarily Kx and JT and 88 and "maybe" a few gut shots that are just trying to turn gin so they can stack the other big stack...

Anyways, come turn, just take the free draw. Its highly doubtful they called your flop bet with Qx and you just don't have enough to fold out Kx if Kx felt like calling your flop bet...

So overall, for the bolded reasons alone I hate your bluff shove here. Never try these sorts of plays against unknown players and this goes double for when you have an active image and only been at the table for 30 minutes. I expect all Kx here to look you up especially since they have the chip stacks to do it with.

Its one thing to put a rec-fish all in with your shove, quite another to try to bully two 500bb stacks that called you preflop and on the flop...

Last edited by dgiharris; 04-06-2014 at 08:39 PM.
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-06-2014 , 08:31 PM
I think shipping it is fine here. You're still open ended and have a lot of fold equity with the turn pairing the board. AK still probably calls you here, it's still fairly strong given the board. Even Kx probably calls, imo. AQ almost definitely folds.

That being said, checking through and seeing the river is also fine. I actually prefer this. If you hit your card your shove will look weak on the river and likely someone will look you up.

I don't know if V2 sees you as "tricky". Taking down a pot with cbets is pretty standard, I would think he more likely has no read on you as of yet. Keep in mind, though, you've only been at the table for 30 minutes. That's like 15 hands, at best. You can't have been "fairly active", you're still a relative unknown to everyone there, imo.
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04-06-2014 , 08:32 PM
Also, they're SO deep (500+bb's), you're unlikely to move them off even weaker made hands. These guys might just both call down and then check through, and there you are with King-high. Just not a good place to spazz shove with air.
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04-06-2014 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
"everything in red is why I don't like your line."
Yes, I do see this... I seem to have a problem incorporating these details into my game. I know they're important, just lack the discipline to be fully aware of the dynamics in red, does it come with time?... I need a check list to go through before EVERY action...
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-06-2014 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
what range of hands do you put them on to call your flop c-bet. Everyone at 1/2nl instinctively puts the preflop raiser on AK, so what does it say when the board hits K Q 8r and you c-bet and they BOTH call.
Heheh. Not relevant to the hand but how many times have we all been called down 3-streets by KJ on a K high board, and hear "Yeah, I figured that's what you had" when we table AK.

Like dgi said though, don't make this play vs. an unknown. It gets even harder when there's two players in the hand. Don't stop looking for these opportunities though. I sometimes fall in to the trap of being so focused on value betting vs. fish that when I get in a hand with a decent player I forget to range him and miss a great bluff opportunity. There's money to be made by abusing position when you can put your opponents on a narrow range that can't handle a big bet.
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-07-2014 , 12:52 AM
I think it's an iffy spot, kind of a gamble since you don't know your villains yet. There are a few things that I see as in favor of this move though.

First, we have no showdown value with jack high, so when we bluff with this hand, we add a lot of value to it. Contrast this with AK which has much more showdown value. AK is a stronger hand here but we gain nothing by shoving with it, only getting called by two pair and sets which crush us.

Which leads me to my second point. This hand is not crushed by sets. If they do have the rare set and call us, we have a decent chance to suck out. These first two points come directly from Ed miller's most recent article in card player. Basically, you have an ideal hand to bluff with.

Third, their hesitation in calling. It can mean a lot of things but I would range them more towards one pair hands than two pair hands because of this. Also their preflop actions mean that they are unlikely to have sets or two pairs, on this board.

Fourth, they can't put you on a flush draw, so calling isn't as easy for them if they have one pair hands. Your line is convincing and straightforward enough to fold out many one pair hands on this board.

Fifth, if they call and you lose you will get looked up lighter. Just be sure that, if this happens, you adjust by weighting your raises more toward value later on.

Overall I'd say this move is not safe and it's a gamble, but it doesn't look like a bad one. Your cards, the action, and the board are in favor of it. The only missing piece is villain reads. While writing this I convinced myself that it was better than I initially thought (after being influenced by the posts from people who don't like it).
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-07-2014 , 01:55 AM
Quote:
Don't stop looking for these opportunities though. I sometimes fall in to the trap of being so focused on value betting vs. fish that when I get in a hand with a decent player I forget to range him and miss a great bluff opportunity
This is partly why I took this line. Should've given V2's 'unknown' and stack size more consideration obv... I was very sure about V1 (reg)
V2 called, V1 folds...River is a J and V2 shows K2
I'm new to making these kinda plays. I can see they need much attention to detail that I missed here... But I think I was almost there... I mean K2!!
bluff AI on turn? Quote
04-07-2014 , 03:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
...Don't stop looking for these opportunities though. I sometimes fall in to the trap of being so focused on value betting vs. fish that when I get in a hand with a decent player I forget to range him and miss a great bluff opportunity. There's money to be made by abusing position when you can put your opponents on a narrow range that can't handle a big bet.
I absolutely agree. However there is a strong prerequisite to this though.

First we have to make sure V is good enough to fold
basically we have to target the right players

the types of players we want to target are scared money players, thinking players with tiny testicles, and players that are constantly saying stuff like, "I know I got you beat, but I'm going to wait for a better spot" or players that say, "I know you got nothing" and then they fold...

those are the types of players we should ruthlessly exploit, bend over, and just repeatedly violate with all 12 inches of our awesomeness, absolutely...

but against unknowns and players who we haven't determined are capable of folding... and also against big stack players who called our flop bet and are sitting at 500bb and the pot is now equal to our piddly 100bb stack????

no, that is not the ideal situation by any stretch for trying a bluff...

And to be fair, this is one of my biggest leaks. And every single time I make an awesome move only to be called down by some donk who calls me 100% believing that he is beat, I want to just kick myself in the nuts for paying off a super station
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