1/2 live

Curious if you make this river call, or if not, would you do it for a cheaper price, and was not raising turn criminal?

Villain CO ($370). Late 20’s male. I have about 5 hours of history, he plays a little loose pre, generally has it when he bets big but saw him spazz once. He opened QTs from +2 to $17 over a limp, blinds call. Flop KQ6r. Flop checks through. Turn 3. Sb nit type guy with QQ bets $20, fold, V raises to $70, sb folds.

Hero BU (covers) has a fairly tight image but just got caught throwing out a sizable double barrel with QJdd on 8-5-2 one diamond and A turn. Guy floated flop with AJ...oops.

Limp, villain raises to $12 in the CO, hero decides to just flat the button with KQhh. Thought pre was close, I’ve been randomizing these spots based on suit lately and hearts was a flat.

We take a heads up flop.

Pot: 27.

Flop: Q42r.

Villain checks, I bet $12, he calls.

Turn: Ks. Brings bd spade draw.

Pot:49.

Villain leads for $25 I thought about a raise but decided I could get a river raise in against AK on most rivers so decided to just call.

Pot: $99.

River: offsuit J.

River gives him some two pair combos but also could be a little scary for AK as it completes AT and two pairs. I decide to stick to the plan, but for a small sizing.

Villain bets $35, hero raises to $80, villain jams for $320 total.

I think for this price I can fold, but what price would you call here? I feel like this line is almost always the nuts but it’s hard for him to have AT here, except for ATss, but it’s 1/2 and I’ve been giving him a cheap price.

Any idea how he plays vs a 3bet pre? If he's not folding much, you might think about that as an option w/ a very playable KQs if he's opening stuff like QTs, Axs, 22-66, etc. before the flop w/ position & relatively deep stacks. Even if he's folding alot to a 3b pre, using our hands blocker value is a thought too. Can't really argue with a flat though.

Flop your bet sizing seems sort of small, but the board is dry and villain is basically saying they missed/have SDV w/ AQ/AJ, 77-JJ, etc. so it has some merit. I still probably go at least $15 regardless, as I'd want to use similar sizing w/ a bluff to create some scare equity, leverage, etc.

Turn IDK for sure. I'm back and forth on this. I've found myself flatting these spots w/ varied success. Turn donk leads are typically quite strong though, so usually we shouldn't be too worried about folding out worse. However, some villains do actually do have a bet/fold strategy in spots like this, which is strange, but also makes it a little more confusing for as to whether put in the raise now or later.

As played I think raise/fold this river is a nice play. No way you're getting bet/3bet w/ AK, QJs, etc. IMO, but they will likely feel priced in with these hands.

Side note: lol nit with QQ

I don't think I even raise this river. I would for sure fold to this 3 bet.

I hate to hijack, but is this hand history correct? Did SB fold face up?

I actually did **** up the history for the hand that I wasn’t in. It was KT6-3. So, same spazzy type raise with second pair by the villain, but yea, no one folded middle set.

flop sizing too small, need to bet at least 50% and balance it our floats on air.
turn i will raise if he leads and might fold to a reraise because he is repping set here.

AP, I will just call his river bet. so fishy line but screams set or AT.

I would deffo raise turn here and would never have raised his river bet AP. Did you have any plan on what you would do OTR if he led/3! you? Gotta know that before you raise.