So I am sitting with a rather competent player to my left who is currently waiting for a 2/5 seat to open up. Effective stacks are Hero: $350 Villain $250.

He limps from MP pre-flop and I bump it to $12 from the CO, with 109


Blinds fold and he calls and we see a flop

A64

He checks, I bet $18 he calls.

Turn: 3

He checks to me again and I fire out $40

He thinks for a little, and calls again.

River: Q

Board: A643Q

He checks again rather quickly and I fire out $75



Do you think this was a good line to take considering my pre-flop action (last hand I raised I showed down with AK in big pot) and the board texture including the turn and river?

Corr, guv!

Did you show TP in that previous AK hand? Fist barrel obv good over a l/c pre. Second barrel is a perhaps bit small small. Would you really bet just over half pot with a big ace here with the FD out? River is fine. It's consistent with your previous sizing, and unlikly that even FDs that binked a Q will call. However, the NFD is a large part of his range, and that is unlikely to fold its TPNK for half pot, but the amount you would have to risk to get that to fold is likely diminishing returns.

i'm pretty much always shuttting down after the turn there. there's no way he's calling the turn bet and not calling the river

You don't think there's any FD in his range? I think there's a ton, most of which beats us, and only the NFD is likely to call river.

Yeah, I raised preflop with the AK from EP and got called in two spots.

Flop came like A94 two diamonds and the first caller open ships for about $60, a little over a psb. I call and he flips over AJ no diamonds, I scoop the pot.

If he had NFD here he isn't the type of player to just call in two streets, he would throw in a raise to test the waters- build the pot. With the preflop action a smaller suited ace makes sense, but not with just calls on the flop and turn IMO

i like a bigger bet on the flop. probably around $25 but as played id probably give up on the turn tbh. why get involved in a big bluff vs one of the few competent players at the table. i don't try too many triple barrel bluffs at 1/2 unless i know my opponent plays draws very passively and a fd is a huge possibility. then i might fire on all three streets if the river misses like it does here.

I like a bigger raise preflop. Maybe 16? At that amount you might not even be playing this hand to the river.

Well, you have given us no idea what range you are putting him on calling the flop AND turn. In order to determine whether to bluff the river, you have to decide if his range is bluffable. Don't just bet. Bet with a plan.

Only thing he's folding is a busted draw.

I give you a 0 out of 10. Would have given you a 1 if you bet smaller on turn and river.

I would take most flush draws out of his range when he calls the turn, if the read is accurate. But I'm pretty sure the read is wrong, so IDK what to think of this play.

As usual, we have a triple here where hero was button clicking.

The thought process behind bluffing this river should be to identify his range to get to the river, decide what fraction of it you can fold with various size bets, and make the bet that yields the highest EV.

For ex:

1/2 pot folds all busted J, Q and K high draws, plus under pairs. That's x combos, but gets called by top pair +.

2/3 pot folds out top pairs. That's Y more combos.

Overbet shove folds out two pair worse than AQ, that's Z more combos.

Or something like that. Obviously, this is too much combo counting to actually do at the table, which means that you have to grind poker stove or flopzilla or something to get a feel for this.

A sort of down and dirty way to do it in game is on a dry board like this, count up the realistic number of set and two pair combos, and assume you can't fold them. Then compare that number of combos to a guesstimate of his busted draws and other crap you can fold him off of.

So this guy can have maybe 6 combos of sets. There are a bunch of 2 pair combos. Say all available suited combos of A3, A4 and A6. That's maybe 14 combos you can't fold him off of.

We can fold him off of suited diamond KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, T9 and J8 (if he plays it) with any bet, but these need to be discounted as he should raise at least 3 or 4, and usually will not l/c the 2 or 3. We beat most of his other suited connectors, except for 56, 76, 86 and 96. 56 should be discounted b/c he didn't c/r flop. These hands will all fold to the same bet that will fold K high.

He has a ton of one pair aces in his range, so this is most of his range. Probably all ace rag combos up through A9o.

So bluffing to fold better draws is probably bluffing say 40% of pot to fold something like 6 or 7 combos while losing to a zillion. It's going to be -EV.

That means to profitably bluff here, we need to target top pair, so we need to bet enough to fold out that part of his range. Probably at least 60% of the pot.

If we think we can fold all of his top pair hands, bluffing enough to do that is very +EV.

Personally, I rarely try to bluff players off of an ace. The best time to do it is when the board ran off in a way where it's hard for a limp caller to have two pair. This is sort of one of those spots, because we would normally expect a flop c/r from him if he had A3 or A4, and AQ should be heavily discounted by his preflop action.

(I haven't discussed the possible straight, but that's probably only 1 combo--7d5d, and since it's the nuts, we can't fold it obv).

(all combo counting ottomh, and subject to correction. No math was harmed in making this pot, everything that might look like math is a wag.)

The only problem here is that there is a busted FD on board meaning that players tend to be sticky and put "you" on the flush draw and call you down lighter.

Whether your line makes sense or not is largely irrelevant. Players at this level are notorious for not folding which is why about 18 months ago I severely cut back on all my double and triple barrel bluffs at 1/2nl unless I have history with a villain and I KNOW 100% he will fold to a decent bluff line.

I can't tell you how many times I'd take the above line and on every street villain would say, "Man, what do ya got? AK, AQ???" and then he'd call all the way down till river and I'd blast the pot on river for 3/4 pot sized bet and villain would say, "Damn, you got AK huh? Man I know you got me beat... okay nice hand I call..."

and then villain would show AT and I would muck my hand and villain would laugh and say, "Man, I thought I was beat..."

just sayin, I'm not a fan of triple barrel bluff lines at this level without some serious HHs (hand histories) and reads.

Speaking for myself, I don't triple barrel bluff at 1/2nl and probably do it less than 2% of the time in 2/5nl.

After a tough think-through, I will say "I call, nice hand." But now I feel more like a fish for saying it.

Nice hand. Other posters are clueless. Bet bigger on river though

Results oriented much?

You're being influenced by the fact that you know the hero's holecards. This line is indistinguishable from a monster range.

A competent opponent is never folding a pair here? That's crazy, and again, is a statement you can only make because you know the hero has air. In fact, it is the complete opposite of the truth. The better our opponent, the more FE we have. Good players are capable of folding a pair of aces when hero takes a bet, bet, bet line, because they know that this is a polarized monster/air line, and that NOBODY at LLSNL has enough air in his range to make bluff catching this river +EV.

The argument against this bluff, to which I subscribe, is:

1. Hero's read is that villain is competent/good.

2. The preflop action suggests hero's read is wrong, and that the villain is a pretty typical loose passive limp/caller.

3. As a loose passive, the villain is less likely to be able to fold a pair of aces.

4. Villain does not have enough < top pair hands in his range that he will fold to justify the bluff.

AQ, also. And if hero can have 44, there's 0 reason he can't have 33. And if he can have 33 and 44, there's no reason to exclude A6s from his range. And, while it's not a monster, hero can/should take this line with AK as well. Given this action, I'd triple AJ, too.

By 1bb


My recollection is that the turn bet was $40 at $63 minus rake. Size was fine, if my recollection is correct.


Agree, but that makes it a good card to bluff at against a competent villain, and increases our FE against him. It's a bad card to bluff if the villain is bad. But even against a bad player, it's not terrible, because it folds lots of flush draws. It's really only terrible if the villain is a horrible stationy ace and flush miner 40 vpip whale.

This isn't so much a rule, but more of a general strategy.

When I am the PFR without an ace in my hand, and the flop comes AXY, I am generally willing to cbet the flop, but I do not double barrel unless I can beat AX.

I am finally starting to get it through my thick scull: There are too many morons at 1/2 and 2/5 who simply cannot let go of a paired ace. It is simply unprofitable to try to bluff even the few who you think are good enough to let it go, because you'll run into the sticky ones just too often.

So just protect your stack for the time when you actually do have AJ+ and you can get three streets of value from your moron du jour.

But now specifically to your line. I don't hate it in general. Though the turn is probably a bad card to bet since it hits the lower suited connectors in his range (e.g. 65 and 43 just improved lots).

Checking back the turn and then bluffing a decent scare card on the river might be good optional line.

Remember this hand next time you have AK and villain folds to your turn bet...

i was going to ask what part of the V range are you targeting, and here i see MP has done a masterful piece of work on just that.

So THIS

Sorry the spoiler cover isn't working on my
Phone, but villain tank folded on river he said with a weakish ace. With his preflop action, my slightly tight image, and his reluctance to call the turn, a decent sized river bet IMO would knock him off the hand since he is a step above the normal droolers at this level. He assumed I had a set, aces up, or a better ace and laid it down.