$1/3. BTN is an older dude, very passive but has been running like god.

Utg $13, EP calls, Hero calls Q♠️J♠️, CO calls, BTN calls.
$65 Q♦️7♠️J♣️
UTG bets $30, fold, hero calls, CO folds, BTN calls.
$150 3♠️
UTG checks, hero bets $65, BTN $165, UTG folds. Hero tank calls.
$470 3♦️
Hero checks, BTN bets $200, hero tank folds

I block effectively every possible semi bluff hand on the turn. Only hand I beat is AT♠️♠️ Unlikely Or 9T♠️♠️, slightly more likely?

Thoughts?

Raise the flop

You block set of QQ and JJ and the river 3 decreases the possibility of a set of 3s. So you lose to 3 77, 1 33, 1 QQ and 1 JJ (although the two latter are very unlikely as he probably raises them pre).

So really, there are 5 or 6 hands that beat you at most, more lilkely 4. So even if you assign him just AT and 9T of spades you are very close to having the odds for a call.

Question. DOes he call wide enough to call with Q7 and J7? If he does and is likely to play them this aggressively, it's probably a call, although you have to take into account that he might be playing suited trash like Q3- although that would be 2 combos of that.


OTOH, if he never semibluffs and only plays aggressively the very top of his range and not two pairs, then it's a fold.

There are 4 combos of QJ where we split and get $235 profit on the call, and 5 combos of 77/JJ/QQ where we lose $200. So the call is losing $60 per 9 calls so... $6.67 per call average if he only ever has those hands. Any time he ever has any draw or random nonsense it's huge profit so it seems clear to call absent some specific read that he'd have to have QQ to do this, or something.

You haven't made many laydowns if this is the biggest you made. However, the mistake is first made pf. You're almost certainly not getting odds to play it, especially if you are even considering folding top 2 without an obvious straight or flush on the board.

The biggest mistake though is calling the turn raise, then folding the river. A passive player raising on the turn is going to bet on the river with a blank. That's as much of a guarantee as there can be in poker. Your FD is worthless if it comes. This player is x/f even with a set. So if you are ahead on the turn, you're still ahead. If behind, you should have folded.

I would have re-raised flop or gii on turn.

BTW for those who missed it, we also lose to AA and KK -- BTN is "very passive" and could have limped with these hands.

Folding turn is massive mistake. You are giving old men way to much credit. It is $100 call to win $470. Need 21% (also need to know effective stacks). I expect to get paid by trips always (image in play), random player can expect to get paid by set more than occasionally.

We have 27% vs only QQ, JJ and 77. Which is profitable call.

Going to felt if we hit any of our made hands. He has very few spade draws. He would have to of floated with gutter and backdoor spades. If he is capable of doing that. He likely is raising worse on turn also sometimes.

So it is a call on turn. Fairly easy one at that.

Very passive players. Have zero flush draws here. As they are getting easy profitable call on turn.

He has QJ, or set 90% of time. Weird Qx rest of time

Your turn sizing is awful. We have effective nuts. Way to many bad river cards to get value on river. A,K,10,9,8 and spades. All make river tough to play.

$120 on turn, even betting full pot gets us value and charges draws more appropriately

easy fold pre flop

as played
V had AQ and you folded the winner

Agreed turn is too small.
Also think flop raise is appropriate. Thoughts at the time is it likely goes to the turn heads up IP and it’s there I raise a second barrel healthily.
Villain actually showed 77 to my fold, which was helpful. I just couldn’t see him floating with a spade gutshot type hand then raising the turn, which meant 77, QQ, JJ and AQ mostly.. clearly a call against a lot of other villains

Not sure I would raise flop here. Don't have bluffs to balance it here. Prefer flat with entire range. Expect Button and Co to fold mostly because we block QJ.

Expect UTG to check most turns. At which time I am betting all my Jacks and Queens along with 910.

But if we are in hand. Where we can expect UTG to continue to raise or CO and Button to continue with Qx. Then I would put in a raise.

Did I miss it, or are there no stack sizes here?

What's hero's stack?

I normally agree with a lot of your opinions, but I disagree both of these

Calling with QJs here is completely fine, especially since we aren’t afraid of getting squeezed. We are likely to go multiway, and pfr aren’t going to cbet bluff OOP into multiple players.

To say that we have to call brick rivers because we called turn is bull**** in live poker. That is a more accurate statement playing online, facing proper bluff frequencies.

I think making an exploitative fold OTR is fine.

Also, you contradict yourself. You say V will xf a set on a flushing river, but you also suggest the same V is capable of barreling turn and river with bluffs. This suggests he is both passive and aggro in different situations...





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Sorry, effective stack sizes are $620, which is the heros. BTN covers.

Because i folded top two on this specific board run out, facing this specific action from this specific opponent this specific time i should never play QJs?

Preflop is fine, stacks are deep enough to play this.

I'm raising this flop most of the time.

AP, I don't think we can fold river on a brick after calling the turn raise. It's either fold on the turn or GII on the turn.

I've seen too many fishregs try to bluff river here with their busted draw that I think we're good here at least 1/3 of the time.

That’s not the only two options on the turn. We can call turn, call river.

I didn’t say he was a fishreg I said he was an older guy, passive. I don’t think this villain type raises and bluffs busted draws much

Stacks aren't mentioned, but I fold to the preflop raise. If you're going to loosen up and call with a hand that is often dominated by an EP raise, at least wait until the Button, and yet we're not even in the CO.

Assuming big stacks, I'm fine with the flop call. I'm hating life when the old guy calls behind me.

I'm fine with the turn bet. I would actually nit fold to the turn raise if our read on this guy is correct (he's never getting aggro with a draw) and assuming this guy can never show up with wonky two pairs (right?). QQ- is flatted preflop *far* more often than it is 3bet in my game, so all sets are easily in play, so we're basically just hoping for a chop.

I don't get to the river, but I also check/fold against this guy.

I find a lot of money at this level is made making "ridiculous" folds, but whenever someone is happy moving towards playing for 200+ bb stacks, that's mostly what we should do, imo.

ETA: Didn't notice we picked up a flush draw on the turn (man I hate those graphics, they're unreadable to my old eyes), in which case I'm actually cooler with the smaller bet so we can perhaps make a call if raised. Unless guy is the biggest fish in the game, there's is no way he is raising TP/overpair putting 200bb stacks in play. I'm actually fine with the whole hand postflop.

Gnicehandpostflop,imoG