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Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Big draw on the turn facing an aggro

12-26-2018 , 07:40 PM
Live £1/2 Full ring

Opened to £10 with Th8h from c/o
Btn 3b to £25
BB called and I called
Pot: £75

Btn has been 3b very frequently so far in the time I have seen - he also has a very wide 3b range from my observation - he went to showdown with some small suited connectors and small pairs that he 3b pre from what I have observed

Flop: JsTc9h
BB checked and I checked
Btn cbet £35 - BB called I called
Pot: £180

Turn Ah
so we now have a flush draw to go with our open ender
Checked to Btn again
He bet £100 this time BB quickly folded and it is back on to us

We started this hand with about £450 deep

Thoughts?

I am slightly more towards jamming as I do believe we have some FE here - also - if we flat and missed - he is almost surely going to fire based on how he plays - he could easily be FOS by barrelling hands like a small pair
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-26-2018 , 10:21 PM
Stick it in. Ton of value hands we would play same way.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-26-2018 , 11:17 PM
There are some places where "sticking it in" will get us STD.

Shortstack trouble disease.

Bluffing erratic players is one such risky place.

Bluffing better players usually has more FE.

IME.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 12:21 AM
Flat. BTNs line is kind of polarizing here, like he's presumably not going to show up with KJ for that turn bet into two players, and I don't see the point in shoving into a polarized range.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Flat. BTNs line is kind of polarizing here, like he's presumably not going to show up with KJ for that turn bet into two players, and I don't see the point in shoving into a polarized range.
Kinda how I feel too. When V fires the second barrel into 2 opponents on an A turn I don't think he has many 1p hands aside from AK/AQ, and I think AK/AQ would elect to check back with at least some frequency. I'm all for leveraging our combo draw equity into a semi-bluff when Vs line represents weak 1p hands, but to me this isn't one of those spots. With a pair + combo draw here I think I'd rather just call and realize my equity against what is a really strong line from V.

Last edited by branch0095; 12-27-2018 at 03:04 AM.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 03:13 AM
You could argue that all the bad two pairs are in his b/f range along with perhaps AK and AQ. I'm not sure how thrilled I am about trying to get this guy to fold that stuff.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 06:09 AM
just call and c/f rivers you miss
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 06:37 AM
Most likely just calling and folding bad rivers
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 01:49 PM
If OP read is correct. And we have a ton of fold equity.

Shipping is more than fine. We have 30% vs calling range for -105 EV.

Betting $405 to win a pot of $1k. We are getting folds way more than 60% of time. To easily break even.

Flatting is fine too.

Very player dependent. Since he seems to think V is weak. That is info we should incorporate. Sure it is torching money vs a lot of competition we face.

Also getting snap folds from a lot of guys who would bet/fold a lot here. Even calling with top 2 is hard to do when faced with $300 raise.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 03:32 PM
I'm with mikko. Flatting is OK, but I prefer shoving vs. this guy with OP's read.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote
12-27-2018 , 04:21 PM
I mean, I guess a shove is fine (maybe even preferred) if we believe H has as much fold equity as he states he does. Vs line leads me to believe we don't have a lot of FE, but I guess we have to go with the reads provided to us by OP.
Big draw on the turn facing an aggro Quote

      
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