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08-27-2014 , 12:54 PM
I'm neither villain nor hero, but found this hand interesting to think about.

Villian - mid 40's asain man. Casually dressed and obviously a reg. Lots of folks knew his name. An hour early had been trying to get a table change (not sure why as i had just sat down). Ended up staying at this table. Mostly quiet but on occasion would talk in a way that others would think he is a gambler, but his play was anything but that. Would limp a fair bit and fold to pre and post flop agression. Every time he showed aggression he had a strong hand. Never observed him to recklessly chase.

Hero - mid 30s white guy casually dressed. Quiet but friendly. Definite thinking TAG. Rarely limped. Didn't play a lot of pots, but those that he did he was aggressive. Think is also a reg, which means he may have previous history with villian.

Villian straddles utg (450ish)
Ep random makes it 12
Hero mp (800-900) calls with two red 9s
2 callers and villian calls

Flop (63) Q,9,6 all hearts
Checks to hero who bets $90
Folds to villian. Thinks for less than a minute and then shoves.
Hero asks for a count of bills (hundreds play and villian had 2 bills under his stack) then tanks for several minutes and then does....

What is villian doing? What would you as hero do?

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08-27-2014 , 02:01 PM
As hero I would ask the dealer why there are two 9h in the deck.
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08-27-2014 , 02:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pharaohofFUNK
As hero I would ask the dealer why there are two 9h in the deck.
Well yeah this...

Very Villain dependent. With the villain as described I think this can be a weak flopped hand such as a small flush, a set, or two pair. Drawing hands include some combo hands like AdQx as well as some pure drawing hands like AKd.

If the villain is looser we can add in more combos of AdX. I think we are ahead of this range as we have outs against a flopped flush which is the only thing I am really behind other than QQ. I am leaning towards a call.
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08-27-2014 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pharaohofFUNK
As hero I would ask the dealer why there are two 9h in the deck.
Yea i messed hero's hand up. He flopped middle set of 9s, so one of them must be black.

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08-27-2014 , 08:22 PM
Quick result post. Hero ends up calling, villian has bottom set and hero's middle set holds for a big for pot.

As this was playing out in front of me, the only hands i could put villian on were bottom or middle set (didn't know what hero's cards were yet) or a scared middle sized flush.

Set of queens was unlikely as he probably would have 3bet preflop, but still was within realm of possibility.

Didn't think he would make that huge over bet with nutish flush and had only observed him to be aggressive with already made hands, so thought a naked flush draw or even combo draw was unlikely.

Putting myself in hero's place, don't think i could have made that call.

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08-27-2014 , 09:55 PM
This is a pretty easy call.

You're getting 1.7:1 on your money ($348 to call, pot is $591), and if he's flopped a flush, you're a 2:1 dog, so calling is only a small mistake (EV of a call is around -$26). The only hand we really fear is QQ, and I heavily discount that due to no 3-bet pre.

Against anything else, folding is a much much larger mistake. If he has 66 (like he had), you're a 19:1 favorite and folding is a huge mistake (EV of a fold against 666 = ~-$544). Against Q9 (or, for that matter, an overpair), folding costs you ~$496. Against a pair + flush draw, folding costs you $309, and against an OESD with one , you lose $196 by folding.

Absent a read that he's a mega nit (he isn't) and only has QQ or a flush here, it's a snap. He doesn't have to have a hand we're beating all that often to make folding a sizable mistake. Plus, if he's got a one-card straight-flush draw, you're around 200-400:1 to hit the BBJ!
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