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05-01-2014 , 10:12 AM
UTG loose fishy reg, chases draws, doesn't like to fold. Stack $280
SB is a very bad, has been calling reraises with K3o and calling down people with Ace high. He would def shove the flop if he had a Q on the flop. $120 stack

Hero has a solid image and has a big stack but not sure if these guys care.



UTG $6 straddle, 2 callers, SB calls, Hero makes it $30 with AJ, straddler says its his last hand so he will call with bad cards, SB calls

Flop QJ4 (Pot $102)
SB checks, Hero bets $60, UTG calls, SB tanks and calls

Turn 7 (Pot $282)
UTG has $190 left, SB has $60 left
SB checks, Hero?
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05-01-2014 , 11:06 AM
Tough. Cant give a free card but i dont see any bet that this guys gonna fold to. SB is either hollywooding or hes on a draw. I think you shove, giving V1 a chance to fold & let SB gamble with his draw
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05-01-2014 , 11:18 AM
This is actually an insteresting math problem balancing utgs draws vs better hands. Could lead to some interesting stove analysis. If he folds his draws to a shove in this huge pot but always calls Qx then I like 100 on the turn and check river. If he is bad enough to call with a draw then shove now.
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05-01-2014 , 11:24 AM
The decision is on the flop. You should be thinking something like "If I bet 60% of pot here that means the pot ott will be ~$280 and V's stacks will be $60 and $190 and I'm shoving brick turns because neither of these guys will play Qx passively to the turn."

SB is getting ai here, as for UTG, if your confident he's on a draw, I've noticed guys don't like to call ai ott but will call off huge chunks of their stacks. I might bet something like $160 ott, expecting UTG to call way more often than if we put him ai and we're not giving him direct or IO with just $30 behind.
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05-01-2014 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
This is actually an insteresting math problem balancing utgs draws vs better hands. Could lead to some interesting stove analysis. If he folds his draws to a shove in this huge pot but always calls Qx then I like 100 on the turn and check river. If he is bad enough to call with a draw then shove now.
If he has 190 left, is he ever gonna call 100? Feel like he either folds & keeps his 190 & keeps playing or gets it all in.
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05-01-2014 , 11:27 AM
Do we want them to fold? From the description, you should put UTG all-in if he does not fold draws. Unless he has some monster draw, aren't we happy with him calling $190 OTT to hit his draw?

If we don't think we want the players to call, then I do not see a point it betting and making a larger pot. It seems like you will get loose calls and can get some value from these two on this board.

I think focusing on UTG is more important here based on stack size. SB maybe trapping, but you would be getting almost 6:1 to call him OTR with cb OTT. I am leaning towards GII OTT based on your reads.

UTG said it was his last hand, so he is looking to either GII or go, imo. I think considering balance may be a level here, too. If UTG is fishy, should we consider he is balancing his range here?

Last edited by Logwyn; 05-01-2014 at 11:34 AM.
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05-01-2014 , 11:38 AM
Even given V's descriptions, I'm not happy about getting 140bbs into a hand with 2nd pair TK. Based on how the hand is playing, it is much more likely short stack is on the draw and UTG-straddler has a naked Q. You say UTG is very sticky and chasey, how aggressive is he? If you let turn check through, is he bombing it with a Q? Is he betting with a J?

If UTG is not very aggressive, just check the turn and bluff catch on the river. If we had AQ here, I'd be willing to blast this turn and if I get coolered so be it. But I really don't want to bloat this pot anymore when I'm WB Q3o.
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05-01-2014 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
This is actually an insteresting math problem balancing utgs draws vs better hands. Could lead to some interesting stove analysis. If he folds his draws to a shove in this huge pot but always calls Qx then I like 100 on the turn and check river. If he is bad enough to call with a draw then shove now.
What if he leads out OTR? We would be getting about 6:1 to call here assuming SB calls OTT.
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05-02-2014 , 11:01 AM
I think this is a shove and it's not particularly close. UTG has roughly 2/3 pot in his stack. If he had more I would want to know:

Does he often play top pair aggressively on the flop?
Is he generally very loose pre-flop (in other words how bad does a hand have to be before even he thinks it's bad)?
Have you seen him call off his stack with second pair or worse?
Are you young?
Are you wearing a hoodie?

The more questions you answer 'yes' to, the more likely you should shove.

However, his stack is too small for any of that to be too important. We have enough information to know that you're well ahead of both opponent's range and that they both likely have outs (if one has a flush draw and one has a 4 they'd have 12 combined outs). No need to put yourself in a tough spot on the river by checking or betting small.

UTG's comment about playing a 'bad hand' makes me think that we can eliminate roughly half of hands with a Q from his range here - he would probably not have better than Q8. We can also probably eliminate all pocket pairs which means we don't fear a set. He certainly could have a Q, but I think it's at least as likely that he has a J or a 4; and more likely that he has a flush draw (or maybe T8).

And I think the fact that this is his last hand makes it much more likely than normal that he would call with any pair or draw. Give him a chance to make that mistake.
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