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Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5

03-05-2014 , 12:52 AM
I have the nuts. Would you change the sizing at any spot?

5/5.
Hero $950 -- Played tight at table.
v1 -- Has 5k in chips. Is probably playing 25/21 and has played several draws aggressively.
v2 -- today he has been tight and has $165.


Hero raises to 20 with 99.
2 calls
v1 calls on button
v2 calls from bb.

Flop: (100) 984

v2 checks
hero bets 65
v1 calls 65
v2 raises to 145 All in
Hero ??? (hero raises to 395)
v1 calls 395

Turn ($935) 2

hero ??? (hero shoves $535)
v2 calls.


Spoiler:
V1 has AK and rivers an offsuit K and loses. I only point this out so people don't think I'm only asking because I lost to a flush here. Just want to know about my sizing.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 01:45 AM
This looks good to me because we need to focus on the draws in his range. What's the plan if the turn is 2?
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 01:50 AM
subtle brag
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 01:50 AM
I was planning on C/Cing a spade. Full house draws aren't quite enough to make the call, but if you include some other hands (eg. lower sets/bluffs/overpairs with 1 spade) in the range, then it becomes correct IMO.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 02:18 AM
What position are you in? I'd raise to $25 pre. As played, $75 on flop because of the draws and you have blockers to top pair. As played reraise to $300 on flop. Shove any turn including spades
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999
What position are you in? I'd raise to $25 pre. As played, $75 on flop because of the draws and you have blockers to top pair. As played reraise to $300 on flop. Shove any turn including spades
I want to point out a mistake that is a function of your sizing...

In spots like this, it is vital that we pay attention to how much the short stack has so we can bet and the short stack can shove and his shove reopens up the betting so we can raise again.

if you lead out for $75 and the short stack shoves all-in for 145, then he is $5 short of the amount needed for you to re-raise...

This is an advanced observation that a lot of thinking players actually overlook. Whenever there is a short stacker in the picture you want to be cognizant of them. Its amazing how often we will miss an opportunity because we were $5, $10, or $15 off in our sizing....

********

OP,
as played, I think your flop re-raise is a bit too big. Our objective on the flop is to get a call that will pot commit our villain so that when we shove turn he 100% has to call with his entire flop calling range.

In this regards, raising to $295 serves the same objective as raising to $395 except that a raise to $295 should get a higher frequency of calls than a raise of $395.

If we raise to $295 and V calls, pot will be 800-ish on the turn and we will have $600-ish behind and thus when we shove V 100% has to call it with his entire flop calling range.

Basically, there is a bit of fish psychology at work in spots like this. $295 is an easier bet to call than $395 and both bets are identical as far as our objective is concerned. Once he calls the re-raise he has to play for stacks on the turn. So getting him to call a re-raise on the flop is more important that the actual raise amount as long as that re-raise pot commits him on the turn.

Last edited by dgiharris; 03-05-2014 at 05:56 AM.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris

f you lead out for $75 and the short stack shoves all-in for 145, then he is $5 short of the amount needed for you to re-raise...
Was thinking bet $75 when this popped into my head. Smart call dgi, and OP if that's the thought behind $65 otf.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 07:41 AM
65-70 otf is fine.

Flop raise a little too big. $320 is about what id make it
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
65-70 otf is fine.

Flop raise a little too big. $320 is about what id make it
I like a raise to $295 instead of $300+ for the same psychological reasons car dealers use when pricing a car for $19,995 instead of $20,000

I know, sounds silly but it does work...

that extra $25 you are raising can literally mean the difference between a significant percentage of calls vs folds (like say 15%) while in the views of our objective, that extra $25 is actually insignificant...

whenever we have the opportunity to use psychology in our betting, we should do it.

The reverse is true, lets say we are bluffing to get a fold.

If we are bluffing $295 to get a fold it is better to bet $305 for the same reason, crossing that psychological barrier threshold in the same way that Marketers cross it when pricing stuff at $19.99...

or put another way, there is a reason why a soap bubble is round... there is a reason why that marketing pricing crap works.

food for thought
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 01:10 PM
I agree about the flop raise. Why would we wana isolate the short stacker by chasing away the button?

It's not too often that we flop the nuts and when we do, we need to get the most money out of our opponents that we possibly can.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 01:13 PM
Grunch
Looks good but $395 seems huge to me, looks like you wanted him to fold, Reasoning?
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 03:15 PM
Bet was at 145 and I made it 395 (or 250 more). I didn't think it was huge, especially with someone with 1000bb in front of her and has been putting in a lot of money with draws (granted, generally she's been the one betting the draws).

Said a different way, she had to call 330 more to win 705. I think I'm getting this call with nut flush draws fairly often and then giving them another tough choice on turn (535 to win 1500ish). She's never quite getting odds, but its never an easy muck either. Also, if she thinks that her two over cards may be good (when King spiked on river she thought she way have won pot), now pot odds are very close to being worth a call.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 03:17 PM
Also, I knew other villain's stack was below 150, but I couldn't tell if it was 135-145 across the table and didn't want to bring attention to it by asking, hence the 65 bet that I knew would allow me to reopen pot.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote
03-05-2014 , 04:47 PM
Standard, well played.

I'd feel the same even if he spiked a flush.
Bet Sizing w/ nuts at 5/5 Quote

      
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