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Old 04-27-2013, 03:14 AM   #1
Bremen
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Bet sizing on the river

Villain has done some fishy stuff like calling 2/3 of his stack preflop and then folding flop. Other than that I haven't noticed much.

1/2 NL, effective stack $350, villain covers me.

5 limpers to me in the BB, I check the mighty K3.

Flop: K83 ($12)

I lead for $10. Folds to villain on the BTN for raises to $25. SB folds. I call.

My plan here was to just call 3 streets as I didn't want to blow him off worse hands. I felt only 83 would pay me off and of course better hands are unlikely to fold.

Turn: K83T ($62)
Check, check.

River: K83TK ($62)
I bet $40 and villain raises to $80. My action?
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Old 04-27-2013, 04:01 AM   #2
fogodchao
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

tbh, i just shove and hope Kx calls me. if he's calling off more than half his stack pre flop he should easily be more than willing to get it in here with trips.

Last edited by fogodchao; 04-27-2013 at 04:18 AM.
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Old 04-27-2013, 04:11 AM   #3
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Im ok with shoving over the top here, I think he raises river here with most of his Kx hands and the only hand we have to be afraid of is K8, and even that is low because he would have bet turn with it most likely.

All sets are betting turn here and all premium kings are paying us off.

Nh
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Old 04-27-2013, 04:38 AM   #4
Bremen
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

heh, two responses and they both say all-in

I know it too, but in the moment I felt my stack was just slightly too large to get it all in.
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Old 04-27-2013, 05:43 AM   #5
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

raise for sure, maybe to 200? i agree that shoving is too much
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Old 04-27-2013, 07:21 AM   #6
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

Any raise is super polarized to boats. Just shove. You only lose to K8. His turn check then river raise is so odd. Based on the flop action I guess he has K good kicker, 88(3 combos) 33(1 combo) and K8 (3combos)

He's probably never folding his boats, and can probably call with just trips plenty. I don't see much difference in villain seeing a smaller river 3bet or a 3bet shove other than the shove looks so much more FoS to most live villains and it makes you more money.
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Old 04-27-2013, 09:35 AM   #7
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

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Originally Posted by SuqAta8 View Post
raise for sure, maybe to 200? i agree that shoving is too much
how is it too much?

Once vil raises the flop and minraises river he is never going to fold, but there's a good chance he flats a lot of his range.

A huge mistake llsnl players make is that they will seldom make value raises deep without the absolute nuts, and yet will call off practically any amount with any sort of "monster" because it's just too good to fold. When you identify that villain has a big hand and you are ahead of his range, you can make crazy huge bets and get called because people aren't laying anything down in this spot -- look up the COTM on Overbetting for more on this.

I'm insta shoving this river and expecting a call all the time.
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Old 04-27-2013, 11:38 AM   #8
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

Grunch

Nice cat, OP. Do you think that he can fold a K? If your read is "no," then shove. Shoving has the added benefit of getting calls from hands that he def won't fold, like 88 or 33.

If you think that he can get away from a bare king, make it 180 or so? Doubt he'd ever fold trips for 100 more.

His hand really looks like Kx, so this is a sizing issue.
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Old 04-27-2013, 11:59 AM   #9
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

I agree with most in this thread, overbet shove looks good here. He almost never has you beat and based on description I doubt he folds any of his Kx hands. As far as sizing, most player's call/fold decision here isn't going to change whether your raise is $100 or all-in. Anyone that would fold Kx to an all-in here would probably also fold to a standard raise. I be jamming.
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Old 04-27-2013, 12:04 PM   #10
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
how is it too much?
because we still have 300 behind
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Old 04-27-2013, 12:52 PM   #11
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Arrrr in.

If he's bluff minraising you, then he'll obvy fold to your RR of any size.

Any players gonna struggle to find a fold with 33/88(read, never finding one), and the type of fishy Vil that calls 2/3 stack pf and folds flop won't find a fold with Kx

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Old 04-27-2013, 01:12 PM   #12
JoeyyyyyG
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Min-raise 160$. I bet it'll piss V off enough for a call
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Old 04-27-2013, 01:27 PM   #13
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

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Min-raise 160$. I bet it'll piss V off enough for a call
min raise is to 120
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Old 04-27-2013, 02:22 PM   #14
Bremen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jambre View Post
min raise is to 120
Depends on the room. This one minraise would be to 120.
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Old 02-18-2014, 08:55 AM   #15
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

A shove is fine here i think. This guy will stack off here most of the time. He is never folding I don't think. He seems pretty Level 1ish given your description, i.e. he will stack off with trips without thinking too much about it.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:12 AM   #16
au4all
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Re: Bet sizing on the river

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Originally Posted by SuqAta8 View Post
because we still have 300 behind
The pot is 222. If we shove the Villain will have 245 to call. It's not exactly a MASSIVE over-bet.

If he's folding much over half the time we can profitably be shoving missed draws.
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