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Bet sizing on the river

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04-27-2013 , 03:14 AM

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

Villain has done some fishy stuff like calling 2/3 of his stack preflop and then folding flop. Other than that I haven't noticed much.

1/2 NL, effective stack $350, villain covers me.

5 limpers to me in the BB, I check the mighty K

.

Flop: K

($12)

I lead for $10. Folds to villain on the BTN for raises to $25. SB folds. I call.

My plan here was to just call 3 streets as I didn't want to blow him off worse hands. I felt only 83 would pay me off and of course better hands are unlikely to fold.

Turn: K

($62)
Check, check.

River: K

($62)
I bet $40 and villain raises to $80. My action?

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04-27-2013 , 04:01 AM

fogodchao

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 3,429

tbh, i just shove and hope Kx calls me. if he's calling off more than half his stack pre flop he should easily be more than willing to get it in here with trips.

Last edited by fogodchao; 04-27-2013 at 04:18 AM.

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04-27-2013 , 04:11 AM

oNste

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 2,155

Im ok with shoving over the top here, I think he raises river here with most of his Kx hands and the only hand we have to be afraid of is K8, and even that is low because he would have bet turn with it most likely.

All sets are betting turn here and all premium kings are paying us off.

Nh

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04-27-2013 , 04:38 AM

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

heh, two responses and they both say all-in

I know it too, but in the moment I felt my stack was just slightly too large to get it all in.

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04-27-2013 , 05:43 AM

SuqAta8

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 21,876

raise for sure, maybe to 200? i agree that shoving is too much

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04-27-2013 , 07:21 AM

jambre

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,181

Any raise is super polarized to boats. Just shove. You only lose to K8. His turn check then river raise is so odd. Based on the flop action I guess he has K good kicker, 88(3 combos) 33(1 combo) and K8 (3combos)

He's probably never folding his boats, and can probably call with just trips plenty. I don't see much difference in villain seeing a smaller river 3bet or a 3bet shove other than the shove looks so much more FoS to most live villains and it makes you more money.

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04-27-2013 , 09:35 AM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuqAta8

raise for sure, maybe to 200? i agree that shoving is too much

how is it too much?

Once vil raises the flop and minraises river he is never going to fold, but there's a good chance he flats a lot of his range.

A huge mistake llsnl players make is that they will seldom make value raises deep without the absolute nuts, and yet will call off practically any amount with any sort of "monster" because it's just too good to fold. When you identify that villain has a big hand and you are ahead of his range, you can make crazy huge bets and get called because people aren't laying anything down in this spot -- look up the COTM on Overbetting for more on this.

I'm insta shoving this river and expecting a call all the time.

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04-27-2013 , 11:38 AM

bob_124

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,297

Grunch

Nice cat, OP. Do you think that he can fold a K? If your read is "no," then shove. Shoving has the added benefit of getting calls from hands that he def won't fold, like 88 or 33.

If you think that he can get away from a bare king, make it 180 or so? Doubt he'd ever fold trips for 100 more.

His hand really looks like Kx, so this is a sizing issue.

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04-27-2013 , 11:59 AM

peckx063

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 412

I agree with most in this thread, overbet shove looks good here. He almost never has you beat and based on description I doubt he folds any of his Kx hands. As far as sizing, most player's call/fold decision here isn't going to change whether your raise is $100 or all-in. Anyone that would fold Kx to an all-in here would probably also fold to a standard raise. I be jamming.

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04-27-2013 , 12:04 PM

#10

SuqAta8

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 21,876

Quote:

Originally Posted by DK Barrel

how is it too much?

because we still have 300 behind

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04-27-2013 , 12:52 PM

#11

checkrepublic

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 15

Arrrr in.

If he's bluff minraising you, then he'll obvy fold to your RR of any size.

Any players gonna struggle to find a fold with 33/88(read, never finding one), and the type of fishy Vil that calls 2/3 stack pf and folds flop won't find a fold with Kx

Sent from my SPH-D700 using 2+2 Forums

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04-27-2013 , 01:12 PM

#12

JoeyyyyyG

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 297

Min-raise 160$. I bet it'll piss V off enough for a call

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04-27-2013 , 01:27 PM

#13

jambre

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,181

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeyyyyyG

Min-raise 160$. I bet it'll piss V off enough for a call

min raise is to 120

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04-27-2013 , 02:22 PM

#14

Bremen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 15,799

Quote:

Originally Posted by jambre

min raise is to 120

Depends on the room. This one minraise would be to 120.

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02-18-2014 , 08:55 AM

#15

Devtastic

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 24

A shove is fine here i think. This guy will stack off here most of the time. He is never folding I don't think. He seems pretty Level 1ish given your description, i.e. he will stack off with trips without thinking too much about it.

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02-18-2014 , 09:12 AM

#16

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuqAta8

because we still have 300 behind

The pot is 222. If we shove the Villain will have 245 to call. It's not exactly a MASSIVE over-bet.

If he's folding much over half the time we can profitably be shoving missed draws.

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