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Old 11-28-2015, 07:11 PM   #26
Sneaky Pete
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Emphasis of my previous posts was that you're just not asking the right question.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
Lets change it up one last time and see where this goes.

Lets say your only options are

1. Limping
2. Raising to $7.

Which is better and why?
Either could be good.

If you have AA and V behind you has raised for 10bb 70% of hands in the last hour at the table, then limping may be better.

If table has been playing super fit-or-fold and will fold flop with just about anything, then raising to $7 may be better.

I can go on, but your questions are just really really bad.
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:15 PM   #27
ZuneIt
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
I did make a mistake.

.92*(2*185 + 105) - 185 - 15
.92*475 - 200
=$237 when we hit, -$15 when we don't

To figure out per hand we multiply -15 by 7.3, add 237 (times 1), and divide that total by 8.3. Which gives +15.36 per hand.

Redoing it for $7 preflop I get +17.94.

The point I was trying to get to was that even though we think of set mining as raking in a big sexy pot with ease, in the end it still comes down to only a few dollars per hand profit, and something as unsexy as raising pre, getting one caller some of the time, realizing your equity with position and getting a little bit of value can be more profitable even if you're just trading $80 pots.
Ok. So we are now closer to 100% agreement. However, I still don't understand your method for finding the net, which is coming up with a different number than me.

Let's say we were the only ones to put money in the pot pf, $100 each & we're all-in. For simplicity sake, we were the blinds.

I have AK: & you have JJ

You are a 56.4% favorite. So you are going to win $100 *.564 = $56.40
& lose $100 * 43.6% * $100 = $43.60

Net profit is $12.80

0.48% is a tie.

So how come we don't use my method in the above scenario where we flop a set 12% of the time & multiply the amount we can win by .12 & the amount we can lose by .88?
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:40 PM   #28
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

My method is just multiplying the total pot by your equity, then subtracting what you put in.

In your given example they have the same result: .564*200 - 100 = 12.80

I find my way is less prone to error especially when dead money is involved. They should work out the same though
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Old 11-28-2015, 08:06 PM   #29
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Ah!! I see now! In the first calculation you were going by 8.3, which is 12.04819277....% that we flop a set & I was just using 12%. PLUS, I didn't add in our $15 in my calculation.

All is well in the math world now..........I think.......I didn't redo my math.
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Old 11-28-2015, 08:15 PM   #30
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by venice10 View Post
If we raise to $25, we eliminate just one villain and have to play a bloated pot with a SPR of 2 (100 BB stacks). There's no room the maneuver and any TP hand is justified to just shove it in. With 3 villains, someone will have a better hand than 99 on the flop over 70% of the time.

Given these facts, it is a limp AINEC.

If I could get it to HU, I like raising better.
No way. We're ahead on way more than 30% of flops against 3 Vs. Making a pair is a 1 in 3 shot! 3 V's = 1 has a pair - the others? Nothing. Maybe a draw.
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Old 11-28-2015, 10:27 PM   #31
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
Lets say your only options are

1. Limping
2. Raising to $7.
If those are really our only options then $7 is better with a few exceptions. The $7 bet is going to be a family pot and hero will be mostly set mining, but it also makes the pot big enough hero can get paid when hero hits.

The exceptions are total stations, aggro maniacs and when stacks are short. When effective stacks are <$100 hero doesn't need to inflate pot to get stacks in. Against aggro maniacs hero doesn't want to raise preflop because of the risk of limp/raising or reraising and the aggro villain will do hero's work for him by raising with top pair and bluffs post flop. Total stations will call off near pot sized bets on every street so hero doesn't need to inflate pot any.
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Old 11-28-2015, 10:36 PM   #32
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Stupidbanana View Post
No way. We're ahead on way more than 30% of flops against 3 Vs. Making a pair is a 1 in 3 shot! 3 V's = 1 has a pair - the others? Nothing. Maybe a draw.
Hero may be ahead more often then not but the flop is mostly going to be -EV. Hero will be pot committed in a situation where better will rarely fold, worse will rarely call and worse hands are rarely betting but hero will have trouble folding to a bet. The statistical analysis is actually fairly complex here because villains will mostly be playing high cards, so they have some chance of blocking each other but when they do hit will mostly be beating hero.
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Old 11-28-2015, 10:45 PM   #33
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post
Actually it is.

If you're a decent post-flop player, you can probably limp an entire range pre and be profitable.
True but your leaving a ton of money on the table!
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Old 11-28-2015, 10:47 PM   #34
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

We're having this discussion again lol I raise to $15 in first situation. Raise to $7>limp in second situation.
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:05 PM   #35
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Willikizz View Post
I'll start with the fact that if you are trying to thin the field you reckon 7 and 15 will not work and If you are only going to set mine you might as well just limp.
This is kind of the point that people have argued in the past. If $7/$15 will not thin the field, why not limp?

I find 2 major reasons to raise x amount instead of limping.

1. Initiative. Post-flop OOP Villains will play more passively than they already are. Check to the raiser.

2. When you bink the nuts, the pot will be large enough for you to stack off on the river (maybe the turn). This is much more difficult with a limped pot.
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:06 PM   #36
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Lets run 2 examples for the $7 raise with 2 callers (flop) then one assuming Hero binks set.

$7 with 100 BB eff.
Preflop 7 callers
Flop $49 Hero bets $35 and gets 2 callers.
Turn $154 .... Hero has exactly 1 PSB ($158) remaining.

$7 with 100 BB eff.
Preflop 7 callers
Flop $49 Hero bets $35 and gets 1 caller.
Turn $119 ....

Here it gets a little more tricky. With $158 remaining, you need a good assessment of the range of the villain. If the board is static, I would bet smaller to make a river shove an easy call. If the board is more dynamic, I would size larger because many Villains will just check/fold the river when they miss.


As we can see, getting it in is fairly simple with a $7 raise when we hit. We are risking much less than the typical sizing in 1/2 live games with the same end results.

I guess what I am asking is why risk more money preflop with a raise than necessary?
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:11 PM   #37
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by QuadJ View Post
If those are really our only options then $7 is better with a few exceptions. The $7 bet is going to be a family pot and hero will be mostly set mining, but it also makes the pot big enough hero can get paid when hero hits.

The exceptions are total stations, aggro maniacs and when stacks are short. When effective stacks are <$100 hero doesn't need to inflate pot to get stacks in. Against aggro maniacs hero doesn't want to raise preflop because of the risk of limp/raising or reraising and the aggro villain will do hero's work for him by raising with top pair and bluffs post flop. Total stations will call off near pot sized bets on every street so hero doesn't need to inflate pot any.
well said. yea I went back and read it. OP is talking about a table where people have like 100-300$ in front. I agree limping along with 99 even in LP is best here but as stacks go up I think betting just enough to get callers is best. A good question I think is "at what point do we stop set mining in this spot?". do we raise TT? JJ? or limp and mine those.

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Old 11-28-2015, 11:17 PM   #38
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post

1/2 Live Table is limp/call happy up to $15 preflop. Over that, you can thin the field to maybe 3 Villains.

4 Limpers Hero has 99, OTB should you

1. Limp
2. Raise to $7
3. Raise to $15
4. Raise to $25

Please assume all the information given is fact and give your reasoning.

Thanks for helping.
if 15 thins it to 3 villains, I would want to thin it to heads up or two villains so I would raise to 20.

You should generally raise to 4x and start adding x's for additional limpers. If there are several limpers, pot x 1.5 usually works well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneaky Pete View Post

If you're a decent post-flop player, you can probably limp an entire range pre and be profitable.
that's called spew.

I'm a very good player post flop and I hardly ever limp pre. If I started to limp every hand my hourly profit would go down the drain.
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:24 PM   #39
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by QuadJ View Post
If those are really our only options then $7 is better with a few exceptions. The $7 bet is going to be a family pot and hero will be mostly set mining, but it also makes the pot big enough hero can get paid when hero hits.
I play against villains who often think about the bets they call in terms of absolute dollar amounts. You're not going to get them to call bigger bets on the river by building the pot on earlier streets, but instead they will start playing passively and check-calling with hands like middle set and non-nut straights and flushes. Playing a set against a typical opponent at 1/3 who is sitting on a 400 stack, I'm usually not expecting to get more than 250 of it, regardless of preflop action, if they have TPGK, but I often expect to be able to get them to put in at least 120-130. In a protected, multiway pot, they are capable of bailing with top pair if an opponent who they view as competent is obviously trying to build a pot to GII, which is why I have more success in building a huge pot to take down when I can represent a draw in that situation.
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Old 11-29-2015, 12:12 PM   #40
QuadJ
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Stupidbanana View Post
well said. yea I went back and read it. OP is talking about a table where people have like 100-300$ in front. I agree limping along with 99 even in LP is best here but as stacks go up I think betting just enough to get callers is best. A good question I think is "at what point do we stop set mining in this spot?". do we raise TT? JJ? or limp and mine those
If a big raise will still get multiple callers I'm fine with set mining with TT. With JJ I would raise from LP but set mine from other positions. Of course if hero is actually stuck not raising more then $7 then hero is playing a lot of implied odds with every hand and has to be able to get away from from AA/KK/QQ when things go badly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit View Post
I play against villains who often think about the bets they call in terms of absolute dollar amounts. You're not going to get them to call bigger bets on the river by building the pot on earlier streets, but instead they will start playing passively and check-calling with hands like middle set and non-nut straights and flushes.
Either they will fold to big bets or they wont. If they won't pay off big bets on later streets without nut hands then they are vulnerable to big bluffs. If they are more passive stations then it's harder to exploit but you can take advantage of getting to see who has the best hand with your moderately good hands more often and you can fold very good hands when they make big bets on the river.
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Old 11-29-2015, 12:37 PM   #41
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AisanNit
I play against villains who often think about the bets they call in terms of absolute dollar amounts. You're not going to get them to call bigger bets on the river by building the pot on earlier streets, but instead they will start playing passively and check-calling with hands like middle set and non-nut straights and flushes.
What is wrong with taking the approach in bold vs. an aggressive player I have position on?

Say the ES is $500+ & you raise, [with JT suited in MP] 3 limpers to $22, get one caller & I'm on the Button with 98 & call. Maybe a limper calls.

Maybe you wouldn't raise pre with JTs but it happens.

Flop comes JT5

check to you, you bet & get a caller & I call.

Turn is JT57

Check to you, you bet, guy folds. Why would I want to raise here? You just bet a healthy % of the pot. If the River comes 2, would you c/f costing me $$ since I didn't raise ott?

Should I have even called pre?
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Old 11-29-2015, 01:52 PM   #42
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Originally Posted by Stupidbanana View Post
well said. yea I went back and read it. OP is talking about a table where people have like 100-300$ in front. I agree limping along with 99 even in LP is best here but as stacks go up I think betting just enough to get callers is best. A good question I think is "at what point do we stop set mining in this spot?". do we raise TT? JJ? or limp and mine those.

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I picked 99 specifically because it is clearly a set mine PP.

TT and JJ seem to be the hands that give players more issues because it is less fit or fold.
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Old 11-29-2015, 02:11 PM   #43
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

If you're going to raise to anything that doesn't get it heads up you better know what your plan will be when you get three callers and 10+ flops. In many 2-5 games in CA Vs will instacall 25 with J10+ . This is why your question is difficult to answer in a vacuum. Judging this situation requires a few orbits.
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Old 11-29-2015, 02:22 PM   #44
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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that's called spew.
You should look up what spew actually means.

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Originally Posted by Playbig2000 View Post
I'm a very good player post flop and I hardly ever limp pre.
Not based off what I read of your posts.

Not limping pre is fine, but the idea of limping is to get opportunity to play more pots. In a lot of shallow games, creating more opportunity is profitable.
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Old 11-29-2015, 03:23 PM   #45
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

I play with many, many poor players at 1/2. Many are passive/weak and raise very little pre. My favorite players though are the ones that raise more pre without a plan. Players who frequently bloat the pot preflop then stab when they flop middling hands. See what I am saying?

With 99 otb here there has to be a good reason to raise. Questions I mull over quickly: who is in the blinds (if they call small raises esp)? Is anyone capable of lrr? Stack sizes (duh)? Which players will lead the flop when they hit (especially those that donk if we raise)? How many limpers limp loads of non suited cards? My image (this is last for a reason)?

If I raise it is $10 or less normally.

Then flop a set and enjoy.
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Old 11-29-2015, 09:53 PM   #46
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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Not limping pre is fine, but the idea of limping is to get opportunity to play more pots. In a lot of shallow games, creating more opportunity is profitable.
I didn't say I never limp. You said good post flop players can limp every hand and be profitable which is laughable.
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Old 11-30-2015, 01:21 AM   #47
Sneaky Pete
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Re: Bet Sizing for Dummies.

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You said good post flop players can limp every hand and be profitable which is laughable.
If it's so laughable, then the opposite must be true.

"Good post flop players cannot limp every hand and be profitable."

"Good post flop players can limp every hand and not be profitable."

Are above two statements true?
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