Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel
I think with 99 we do want to "thin the field" for that reason.
Nope. We don't want to 'thin the field', we want to keep all that J6s, A8o, 23s in there. We make more money postflop by taking A8o to valuetown, by letting J6s chase his FD, 23s her GSSD, not by folding out those hands. Then, a small part of the time, when J6s makes his FD, we convince him it's not the NFD and get lay downs from bigger hands. This is how to dominate weak tight players that limp call too wide.
As you increase the bet size your likelihood of picking up only 11$ increases dramatically (past 15 or 20$ IMO) while your likelihood of being dominated to the flop also increases. At the extreme you're only winning pots you take down pre or flop a set.
So the formula is something like z = 11x + $$(0.11y) - $$(0.89y); and x+y = 1
You pick up 11 x% of the time, you see a flop y%, and you flop a set 11% of y. Your profit is z. It's not a linear relation, ie. there is a maximum and therefore optimal bet size.