Only 1 ace left and 7X combos are limited given pre flop action. I'd check to induce, let FD combos "catch-up", perhaps an under pair stab.

If opponents have AX/7X, we can still get value (V1 stack) OTT.

unfortunately I always forget who you are. there is this one redfronting guy who appears every few months, gets banned and reappears.
but I sincerely do hope that you are here to stay this time

I've only been here for about a week. Been reading for a long time before that though. Finally had to join and post when I saw someone advocate calling a raise with 87s multiway pre-flop in position, wrongly, for like the jillionth time.

I've seen red-fonting before, mostly in political discussion forums when people want to respond point by point to someone else's rant. I'm sure I've seen it on 2+2 before too. Maybe we're thinking of the same posts

I can't imagine what I would be doing that could get me banned. All of the animosity and name calling has been directed AT ME!

Might fold on flop, but not turn, DUCY?

If H cbets flop, what can V beat?

It's LOL to suggest that OP has wider range cbetting a lockdown flop than checking.

People check when weak and bet when strong, plain and simple. If you want to argue otherwise, at least have some substance.

If V isn't calling with JJ unimproved, checking flop at least gives it ~4% chance to be stacked, and therefore checking is superior, DUCY?

Ya, so flop the nuts and target the smallest part of V's range is what you think is most profitable?

So if we're checking one street, and betting another, are we projecting weakness or strength?

Bet flop/check turn
Check flop/bet turn

Which shows more strength. I believe it's the latter. But if you disagree, I am anxious to hear the substance of your reasoning.

We wouldn't know because V folded flop. DUCY?

You can't seem to tell the difference between a lockdown board and others.

Second nuts, and all of the other parts of V's range are targeted already anyway. Betting the flop will get calls from A's, 7's, and PP's.

Victimizing diamonds, though a small part of V's range, is just gravy.

Everybody likes gravy.

I might agree that we victimize the PP's more by checking flop if the hand was not 3-bet from the SB. In a single raised pot, you can check top pair for deception and get paid from smaller PP's later. That's a good strategy if you raise A8s in the cutoff and the flop is A94r and you wanna get paid by JJ

But here, we 3-bet, from the SB. We're not fooling anyone. If we check the flop, and then lead turn on a board of 77A5, or 77AK, or 77A7, how in the world does JJ find a call???

Put yourself in V's shoes. Pick any turn card you want. Tell me what hero's perceived range is, and what we could expect to beat if we call turn with JJ

LOL to think that V is calling with PP unimproved on A77 board.

Even you said it yourself, just that you're so caught up with the idea that betting is somehow weaker than checking.

Like I said, flop nuts and target smallest part of V's range???

You kept dodging the question. How is JJ going to call the flop?

It's a lot easier for V to interpret a c-bet as harmless when it's made on the flop than it is on the turn.

If the concept of V's peeling when faced with a small bet, on paired flops, is foreign to you, then I don't know what to say. You play in tougher games than I do.

I think the mistake you're making is that you're assuming because there are more combos of 99-JJ that it's a "larger" part of V's range than diamond draws.

However, diamond draws are going to put money in the pot with more frequency and volume than PP's, so ignoring them would be a mistake.

Your line targets hands that are unlikely to call no matter what. You can target 90% of his range, but if it only calls 10% of the time, then it's LESS EV than targeting the 10% of his range that calls 100% of the time. DUCY

Simple question:

How do you compare how V is going to perceive a turn bet if he folded flop?

You said it yourself, no one is going to hero call with JJ.

Umm...again, you said it yourself:

How is V going to call flop with JJ in a 3bet raised by SB pot?

You just kept shifting the question to turn and keep dodging how V is going to call flop.

What you failed to understand is that if there are 3 combos of diamond draws and 18 combos of 99-JJ, that 3 combos would have to put in a lot more money and more often to beat value of targeting those 18 combos.

It's really simple math.

What if that 90% is calling 15% of the times? Oh snap...

Not in a 3bet multiway pot, it's not. No Hero would ever bet this flop with QQ/KK in this spot, and Vs aren't brain dead, they know that. So they will fold all PPs to a flop bet.

But they might consider repping Ax by betting behind.

Plus there is a ton of value of V stacking off if his PP improves on turn. Enough so to more than cover the value we lost from not betting flop against that 3 - 4 combos of flush draw.

I never said I was expecting to get called by PP's a ton. But you're overestimating how many folds we will get.

And you still haven't proven why you'll get so much money from a PP on the turn. What is a V with JJ hoping we have when we lead the turn?? Give me a pre-flop 3-bet range for a middle aged lady in the SB. Pick any turn card you want, other than a J, and tell me one good reason why JJ would call our lead on the turn?

Or they may decide to do that after we seemingly 'give up' on the turn


That's a reason V might use to justify a peel on the flop. If he hits, he'll have two streets to extract value, and the pot will already be bigger. If he misses the turn, it will be alot harder to justify such a peel for the river.

Still haven't heard what JJ expects to beat when he calls us on the turn.


And now we've gone back in circles.

Do you realize that flush draws are 4 and a half times more likely to stack-off than a pocket pair. 9 outs vs 2 outs.

How are you accounting for that in your equation?

And again, I'm not new to this game, and players peeling flops with pocket pairs on paired boards is not a rarity.

LOL...you still can't grasp the idea that you can't compare check/bet vs bet/check if V folds 100% of his range to a flop bet.

Uhh...easy.

% of flush draw in range * % of 9-outs

vs

% of PP in range * % of 2-out

And it's not 4.5x because there are far fewer combos of flush draw than there are PP's. It's really basic math...

Whether you're new to the game is irrelevant.

I was pretty clear from the get-go with analysis using combinatorics and some math, and you seem to have been stuck with your "experience" and how "betting after 3bet pre" is weaker than "checking flop."

Here's a simple question:

Hero 3bets pre to $75 with KQdd and flop came Ad7h7d.

Would you recommend cbetting or checking?

When you're playing with people you have a lot of history with, I think the meta game becomes the main factor in a spot like this.

Against most opponents I would check the flop, since that's what I would do with most of the weaker hands in my preflop 3-betting range (lots of pocket pairs that I would play for showdown value). I would do this mainly to induce bluffs.

However, given the OP's description that both villains are somewhat station-y, and view her as someone capable of bluffing, I would bet the flop. If someone calls I would check the turn, trying to make it look like I'm giving up, in order to induce bluffs from hands that villains float the flop with, and also to try to get them to value bet with weaker aces that might fold to a second barrel.

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That's a terrible analogy. But a pretty clever trap to get me to say "check", if that's what you were going for. Good try.

I understand checking in that situation as it could set up a check/raise, which leads to the distinct possibility of ending the hand and winning with K high.

In this thread, we're talking about a hand where we most definitely will NOT be check-raising, and we most definitely do NOT want to end the hand.

Not even close to the same thing.

How is it not the same thing?

Question is how V perceives H's range...

So checking induces a bet...interesting...

Your combinatorics aren't exactly relevant when you simply discount flush draws because of the fact that there are fewer combos. You aren't recognizing how much more likely they are to make a hand and stack off

You are 4.5 times more likely to make money against a flush draw. You've cited 18 combos of PP's. 18/4.5 = 4. So if we can come up with more than 4 combos of diamond draws, then betting flop is preferable. Go back and re-read the OP. She has stated for us, that she believes that all suited broadway hands are in V's pre-flop calling ranges. KQ, QJ, JT, KJ, QT

Since you like math, and logic, and reasoning so much. Here's some:

Five is more than four

And if we can ever include 9T, 98, or 78 suited....that's gravy.

And everybody likes gravy.

in your example, there are cards that V's could have that generate action.

In the original example in this thread, we hold two of the aces!

Pretty clear check.

Let villain perhaps hit a 2 outter on the turn with their small pair and they will snap put us on TT-KK.

It's a little bizarre that this post even exists and completely wacked that it has generated three pages of responses.

An old woman three bets you from the SB. What's her range? Pretty much KK+, AK exactly. Then she c bets an A high flop. Are you ever floating her? No....

Pretty much the only way to get money from any hand that isn't a 7 here is to check it down and hope someone spikes a boat.

If both Vs have PPs there is a about a 17% chance of them boating. I can't imagine there is a 17% chance that you will get a caller on the flop.

That's being way too nice to Ax and diamond draws.

Point of combinatorics is to consider number of combos...should I be giving flush draw more weight even though there are far fewer combos?

To give it more value is a different equation outside of combinatorics.

This is just flat out wrong. If there are equal number of combos in flush draw and PP, then number of outs would make sense. Scroll up and read my breakdown.

Sorry dude, there is no argument here, just plain math.

You can keep manipulating range to come up with more combos, but at one point, you kind of have to realize that if you're stretching it so hard, you're probably wrong.

LOL, everyone likes bacon and math is bacon.

Really? You want to continue down the road of ignorance?

LOL, and yet you are still arguing that betting is best.