I'm 100% with getting the money in on the turn. I think either of your choice of $150, or a "tank" shove are both good lines to take, and you can't cry too much over missing an opportunity to squeeze a few more peanuts out of him with a deceptive call. I would probably lean a bit more to the shove because: first it might be viewed as a semi-bluff with a drawing hand, and second the stack to pot size is too small for you to effectively place a large bet and give it up on the river. I think a flat here is pretty horrible.

Totally agree with the exploitation. That was the "good" that came out of this hand.

I guess if he's folding to a 4x raise, he's folding to a shove, and vice versa if he calls the raise he calls the shove.

I probably am leveling myself here. It's a case of my image, on the button, against a villain with a fair amount of history, that thinks, I'm always getting paid off in this spot. Since I didn't, I've convinced myself that my line was poor, my thinking was off, and I must play it "better" next time.

In actuality it was probably more of thinking nit isn't willing to stack off w/ one pair (AA,AK) here.

I suck at math, can someone help?

what would villains equity be w/ a range of AA,AK,TT,KK,88,KTs vs AQs, AJs, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs, J9s,T9s, T8s, 79s, 86s, and a few combos of just oesd's, and a few small diamond draws?

I don't know how to calculate for card removal, like I could have AdQd, AsQs, but if he has AA, AK, how do I remove the combos? Does that make sense? If not I'll try to explain it better. I'm still trying to figure out why he folded.

I never tried to imply that he wasn't a "good" or "solid" player. If I gave that impression it certainly wasn't intentional. In reality I give him plenty of credit.

I said he's on the nittier side of tag. That doesn't mean anything other than, he plays tight and doesn't get out of line. He's a solid, winning player.

Why do you think a shove looks more like a semi bluff than 4x raise? I'm not arguing with you, other posters have said the same thing, I'm just curious as to why. To me, I think both bets can rep both draws/value equally.

If it's a consensus that shoving looks more bluffy, I'll start shoving value hands as opposed to the bigger raise, 3.5-5x more frequently.

I guess it depends on how you've seen people play. I play low stake home games, not casino, so I am not the one to trust here. But in the games I play, the guys with the decent draws in spots like this like to maximize their fold equity by shoving; mainly I think because they know they are going to feel sick when they put in the large 4x, essentially stack committing, raise, they get called and brick the river, and are now faced with a really tough decision; so they will avoid putting themselves in that spot. Making the 4x raise with only a pot size bet left just comes across as stronger to me, it is more often the strong made hand than a semi-bluff. That's just how I've observed people playing at my games.

OK one more question then I'm going to jump out for awhile,

So we play this villain fairly often. We know his range in this spot to be AK+ once bets again ott.

say we have a hand like Kc Qh, top pair no draw. I would think we would be calling a lot of turn bets with the intention of repping diamonds or spades on the river. Since Villain is known to be tight and known to have a made hand ott, we can probably steal easily.

We've all agreed that diamonds and spades kill our river action.

If were always raising/shoving the turn w/ the nuts and some semibluffs, Were pretty unbalanced when we just flat, right? What do we do about this?

If were never flatting w/ the nuts I'd guess we have to raise KQ, KJ some % as well?

My question is don't we have to have a bigger flatting range ott? If not, do we need to be raising top pair here some as well? Seems to me like you would have to in a case where your playing against a guy often. Any thoughts?

I think the question to start with is, what hands do you think it makes sense to just call the turn with, totally independent of balancing, and what hands do you think it makes sense to raise with? My guess would be that once you figure this out, the "balancing" adjustment is probably pretty minimal.

+1 to jam turn. Too many action killing cards to come on river among other reasons.

If his range is AK+ then I don't know why you differentiate KQ from other draws; KQ is just a ****tier draw to 2-pair or trips which may or may not be enough to win the hand if it hits. So your question is: is it okay to flat the turn with some draws and then rep other draws on the river? Sure. Your range will be a bit polarized (assuming you shove air ever, if not then yeah "unbalanced" is a better word), but I don't think it's a huge deal considering there are enough different medium-strength draws here you can flat that he'll have a hard time exploiting you on the river.

Well that's kind of my point. If were never just calling the turn w/ the nuts, we have to change how we play everything else, right?

Personally I would call Kx, air a good amount to bluff river against this villain. But I'm thinking I'll need to raise these some as well.

yeah I'm on board w/ KQ being basically the same as whatever else. I'm fine with shoving air otr to rep a flush, I was just thinking that I'll need to play the turn more agro with these hands to make the river bomb more believable. Again this is based off the assumption that we're never flatting the nuts ott.

Unless I was seen to play some big draws like say AdQd the same way. flat flop flat turn bomb river. I guess a spade draw would make sense to play this way more so. Like flop a pair w/ backdoor draw/pick up the draw ott/call a bet getting an ok price and then pop the river when spade hits. I'd think he would be bet/folding diamonds/spades, bluff catching bricks otr after a turn call?