your point is both that it's a marginal spot and that you can make up the equity later. my point is that it's not a marginal spot and that you've lost that equity forever. we are diametrically opposed on our opinions. I doubt that makes either of us crazy or pathological

You could not possibly be any more wrong. I don't mean to call you out or anything, but the only thing I can say is you're way off. It's difficult to overestimate the value of position. You should rethink everything you think you know about position because you clearly do not understand it's value. It's vastly greater than 2-3% and the more skilled and aggressive the opponent, that number just keeps going up.

No that's the point. They don't notice. They also don't know what you're folding. It's not like you're turning your cards over and saying, "look I'm folding AJ to you here." You're tryingto tell me that the LLSNL masses are all of a sudden paying attention to my fold to steal stats? Cmon man.

Pretty sure NO ONE said that.

I can almost guarantee you're losing more than -1BB/hand in the BB. I can't prove it, but if I could somehow track your lifetime BB stats, I'd say it's much worse.



By your logic, I can't always fold 72o because I will only break even with those who always fold 72o. It's like you've gotten lost in some twilight zone of poker theory. You've twisted the idea of reciprocity to the point where I don't even recognize what's going on.

There's also the matter of you insisting that this is a +EV spot. It's not. Just playing it, is a losing proposition. By folding i this spot, you're acutally MAKING money vs. the field who will likely play it and lose more than -1BB on average.

Believe me, I'm a guy who believes in taking EVERY edge you can find. If there was a way to search all the times I told people to call shoves with 50.5% equity, you'd be amazed. However, if we fantasize and say that this is indeed a +EV spot (it isn't), you're also trying to tell me that you can't beat the game by passing it up. If this is true, then you're so close to a break even player otherwise, that you have MASSIVE holes to fill and blind defense should go right out the window because you clearly aren't capable of pulling it off.

I'm not trying to be harsh, but you need to hit the restart button man. Go back to the basics. Equity. Position. Aggression. You've gotten mixed up on some theory and I think you're missing the forest through the trees.

This should be posted in the mhsfr forum. Change the hand to 5/10 w/ correlating stack sizes. See what kind of advice is given. I'd be interested to read the replies as would others I think.

This is quite possibly the most damning thing you've said in this thread.

You do not appreciate nor understand the value of position and you are just dead freaking wrong.

Your stance that surrendering blinds in marginal spots in LLSNL is tantamount to being unable to beat the game is just flat out wrong. In your mind, you have a distorted view of what LLSNL is and where your profits in LLSNL come from.

You sound like an online player who is pretending that he plays 1/2nl live.

This would be a much more interesting discussion if this were 5/T no-limit. If this were 5/T I would probably agree with you.

But this is LLSNL and 1/2nl at that and as such you could not be more wrong in your views here concerning blind defense vs a competent villain vs beating the game.

There will be no meeting of the minds here.

Enjoy leaking money from the blinds like the Titanic enjoyed that iceberg

EDIT: I posted this without reading Spike's comments. Funny how we reach the same conclusion, that basically, you have some weird twisted view of what LLSNL is. One of the things I did 18 months ago that resulted in an easy and IMMEDIATE increase of my winrate by 15% - 20% was to fold more from the blinds.

DGIHarris, you are a respected poster in my opinion who seems like a good player, however I could not disagree with you any more about this hand. Folding pre flop is wrong. This topic and discussion seem more appropriate if we had A2o instead. I'd argue that A2o can be playable quite frequently in this situation.

A typical button opening range is 25-35% of hands. Against villain as described, it's probably far higher. The fact that he showed J4o means in reality it's probably near 100%.

Over about 6 hours, if you start with a 100BB stack, you will lose approximately 25BBs of your stack to just the blinds if you ALWAYS fold your blinds. That's also assuming we never win a limped pot from the blinds, just to make the math simpler.

Blind defense is not always -EV...here A7s is a much stronger hand than necessary to defend.

I didn't read all the replies in this topic, but noticed someone said OOP counts for less than 5% of a disadvantage. I'm not sure how one would quantify this, but I'd estimate it's much greater than 5%...perhaps 15-20%. Being OOP is a huge disadvantage, but not unsurmountable.

Anyway, I saw the results. Before seeing them, I suggested never folding on the flop, mostly calling, and sometimes raising. This might be biased now that I saw the results, but check raising this flop actually seems like it might be the best line.

A HUGE percentage of villain's range is two over cards. These have 25% equity to beat us. Not only that, but they have great bluff equity on later streets since they can rep high cards. Check/raising protects our vulnerable pair. If villain calls the c/r, we can then narrow his range to over pairs or 8-X and get away easier on the turn or river.

As played, on the river, I'd strongly consider folding. I don't think we have the equity we need to call. If he has Jack-X (which is a large percent of his range), he's v-betting the river 100% of the time. If he just has ace high or king high, he will be bluffing that river less than 100% of the time, thus we can skew his range to more Jack-X hands.

One of my posts (you may have skipped over) talked about what I would have considered a "better spot", namely a situation that had more dead money in the pot and an opportunity for me to squeeze/rep a bigger hand.

In the case of defending here. The reason I don't like A7s is simply because our villain was described as competent and if we call here it seems like our plan is nothing more than to hope we hit our hand and just call down.

That is my objection.

If we were/are going to defend our blinds, then I'd much prefer to 3-bet or to lead out or commit to any other aggressive action that wins us the hand.

Basically, from what I gather from the OP and the tone of this hand, our "defense" is nothing more than being passive, hoping we hit our hand, and calling down vs a capable opponent. And that isn't winning poker.

What I find happens more often than not in these situations is that Hero defends and makes the call. Whiffs flop but c/c, then folds on a whiff turn because in this spot odds are we whiff our ace and there will be 2 or 3 overcards to our 7 on the board all of which will be in V's rather wide range...

Lastly, alot of my advice in this thread directly stems from the OP and the tone of his post. In this spot, V was described as competent. He has position and is aggressive and stacks are deep. This is just not a good spot for hero, particular this Hero (OP) which is a big reason why my advice is to just fold.

yes, I am saying that, and that's where we disagree. I honestly and truly believe you can't beat any stakes if you always fold here

lol, of course I am. EVERYONE loses money in the SB and BB. There isn't a single player who doesn't. The best player in the world can't make a cent off a random players button from the BB,. It's also the highest variance spot so it takes years and years and years of play to find your true loss-rate from the BB. That isn't the point at all

no, it can't be this high. 15-20% would be insurmountable. if it was this high poker would be unplayable

This is the post that leads me to believe you truly don't understand what you're talking about, OR you're trolling big-time.

Should we play the way you're suggesting, defending with A7 and losing more than 1BB/hand from the BB (like EVERYONE does, your words above), or should we simply fold every single big blind 100%, losing EXACTLY 1BB/hand? Who is winning more money?

Back in post #67, you say they it's very hard to make money back once you've lost it because you folded A7, and then later in the thread you say we have to play this way even though it loses more money overall than it would to simply fold.

DGI - do you have a BB flatting range after a competent button open?

JFC, this is so not true at 1/2nl and 2/5nl that I want to punch my laptop for merely displaying that absurd statement. I mean seriously have you ever played 1/2nl ? I am now, honestly convinced you either do not play LLSNL poker or you do not beat LLSN and are a horrific losing player.


What would your equity advantage be on a flop where you have TPGK or better vs an aggro's wide range which includes underpairs and airballs?

Would this advantage be greater than 15% - 20%?

What about a preflop range of TT+, QT+ vs ATC?
Hint

I think I do know what I'm talking about but I don't think this should be some sort of war. If you aren't calling pre, fine, you don't have anything to say about post flop. You've made your point.

Needless to say, I probably won about $120 back on this hand, since I would have probably c/red the turn, and can now fold my big blind 25 more times and only break even. It's going to take you a long long time for you and my BB loss to even out if we assume both of us have the same skill

you don't lose every hand from the big blind, you lose overall, but you lose more if you don't defend with hands that are way ahead of villains range, you lose more if you don't resteal sometimes, and you certainly lose more when you are folding hands that do no worse than break even vs any std button open range

coincidentally or not A7s happens to be the bottom hand to defend with vs an "optimum" button opening range, that's why it's an inflection point

It is really dependent on his raising frequency and my image.
Assuming he has a high enough frequency I feel he is raising me really light / stealing and I have a decent image I will flat 75s - J9s with the plan to lead out or raise flop or turn-- that is, my plan is to win post flop almost no matter what (obviously I have to have a handle on V's post flop tendencies).

I will generally raise with JT+, 88+ ( and lowball SCs and S1Gs 5% of the time)

But I am going to cherry pick when I defend.

Lastly, I probably defend w a ratio of 1/3 light hands and 2/3 big hands.

It's unproductive to think of "waiting for better spots". The only thing we should focus on is are we winning or losing long term by calling pre flop. Villain was described as competent, sure, but presumably we are competent as well. And you're right, our main plan is to "call, hope to hit our hand and call down". We'll flop a pair or better probably somewhere around 40% of the time. And we don't even need a pair or better to continue post flop. A flop like 10103 for example is fine to continue on.

We'll often be bluff catching post flop, but we don't have to auto-call down if we hit anything, we'll be "playing poker".

If we totally whiff flop like you describe, we can just check/fold flop. When I mean whiff I mean we get something like K J 8 rainbow.

Villain's raising frequency is high (we've seen him play J6o before) and our image is bad according to OP. These two factors are a wash. So what you've said above totally contradicts everything else you've said in this thread.

There has been some math thrown around that is a big overestimation of the edge you have in poker. If villain is on ATC pre, a 61/39% is enormous. It's a larger edge than Phil Ivey has over any of us.

I don't think anyone has ever converted the value of position into an equity %, but it can't possibly be more than 10%. That is just an opinion of course because I've no clue how to do it. If two players are equal skill, the value of position is only the river bets. There are actually very very few hands that go to showdown on the river. So if you think the value of position is high, or that 61/49 isn't an enormous edge in poker, you are probably over-estimating your own skill.

Here is the "optimum" opening button range 9handed (sorry but I've never done 10 handed)

44+, A7o+, KJo+

A7s vs that range is 52%

the value of position for equally skilled players = 2%

if you think it's more than that, you are probably wrong

total equity = 50% = an inflection point

source: my mathematical intuition

you don't think position is helpful on the flop?

Ben- I think what he's talking about is waiting for a spot to make a play in an otherwise suboptimal spot. If the play is +EV every time then he makes it every time, but when you're looking to balance, you want to pick the most profitable spot to do so i.e. dead money, good speculative hand. DGI correct me if i'm wrong.

Attention- you're so far out there on this one, you're going to have a hard time getting anyone to take you seriously in this thread anymore.

This thread is complete and utter AIDS IMO.

Attention- you are all over the place. You claim that positional advantage isn't that great and that if you can't "defend" here you are incapable of beating llsnl. That is such an outlandishly LOL statement that it is hard to respond to really. I happen to believe that this is a 3b against a lot of opponents but this thread has sort of morphed into something beyond that.

To me calling is the least attractive option AINEC really. Why on earth would I want to play a HU pot OOP with a hand like A7s against a described LAG (although later I think the read is proven a bit wrong and this guy is clicking buttons but that is not the read). That makes no sense at all.

well the math of this spot pre is actually quite complicated, hence, no one has ever done it, and non math people get frustrated with it

understand that if you were offered a 61/39 edge in any wager, you should bet the size of your edge and 12% of your bankroll. Believe me, if you actually had that kind of edge, you would be Victor Klom.

I actually hope this thread dies. I'd never post it in anything but a low stakes forum because I really don't want ppl to know. But it's interesting to me mathematically, and i think my numbers are right and dare anyone to refute them.

I wouldn't mind continuing or not with the thread, but the number venice and dgi threw around at the beginning are completely wrong, and over-estimating edges

Part of the "art" of poker is knowing when to be awesome. My game isn't some static stats/ranges push fold chart I apply in all situations. My game is more fluid than that. You can't take my general ranges and answers on a general question and apply it to this instance and say, "aha, you are contradicting yourself!!!"

Based on what OP said, I have no problem folding my A7hh here preflop from the blinds with no dead money in the pot vs a "competent" villain in position.

Will I occasionally defend here? Sure, i've outlined my conditions for defending upthread and or more aggressive lines I would/could take.

Here is my last argument to somehow get you to see how you are flawed.
You are claiming that the positional disadvantage from playing OOP (i.e. the blinds) isn't that much.

Then riddle me this.

There was a thread where everyone submitted their stats and the thread revealed that EVERYONE is a losing player from the blinds. Not just fish, not just rec players, not just aggros, EVERYONE including the players that crush their level.

In fact, the goal of everyone was to lose the "least" from the blinds.

If what you say is true, why aren't the best cash game players crushing the blinds with a winrate of 2bb/100 ????

In the thread, the trend of winrates increasing as a function of position was very compelling, with the biggest winrates coming from the later positions

If what you say is true and position is a 2% edge at best, then the above wouldn't be true would it? Nor would everyone's stats increase nicely as a function of position.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...thread-158015/

I don't know if you have played online and tracked your results with PT or HEM but you can look at your own stats and it will align with the above.

My very last post in this thread.

You have now morphed this thread into an argument of "taking an edge vs not taking an edge".

For the record, we all are big fans of taking edges when we find them. Its just that we disagree on "if" there is an edge here. Those of us who disagree believe that whatever equity edge we have with A7hh is not enough of an edge to counter the disadvantages of being OOP vs a competent villain when we lost the initiative by merely flatting.

If you are a math guy like you said, then look at the statistics of winning players and look at the position trends. They are irrefutable and prove just how powerful position is and just how much you are under valuing it.

Just saw this thread, this x 1000. A7s vs an agressive V is perfect to 3bet here imo, calling will really get you into difficult spots. What did you plan to do with an A high board and a barreling V?