1 took a 1BI 'shot' at live 200, now after ~200 hours my biggest downswing is around 900. pretty sure that a 2k downswing would happen if u played long enough, live games get very deep and very crazy.

still, if u can put up with the scummy atmosphere and **** chat from old dudes, it is like printing money.

edit: also OP, if ur worried about BR don't worry about buying in short. u'll get a few dirty looks but **** them imo, ur here to make money

A 2k "downswing" at 1/2 live is not a bad run. It is obviously tilt. Everyone is different, some can completely forget that it is even money and play on a 5 buy in roll. Others can have 100 buy ins in their roll and still go on crazy monkey tilt when the lose what is barely a flip for a buy in. This is what makes these games so juicy. I played with good reg last week that has a substantial roll for the stakes he plays. He was about 300BB deep, lost a 80BB pot when somone hit an open end straight on the river in a totally standard spot, and he went on tilt for a hour before getting his head together. He tilted away another 250BB because he couldnt handle losing $40 that way. So it has to be player dependant. I cannot remember the last time I tilted playing live, honestly.

Also, suggesting that playing differently while on a short bankroll is what leads to compounded losses. If you cannot play "your game" on whatever roll you have, you should not be playing. If you are someone that pushes small edges, you have to be able to do that to make other aspects of your game work. Just saying, play tight while on a short roll will fail miserably for someone who plays like this. Just like telling a nit on a big roll to lag it up will fail miserably. If you are not comfortable playing a certain style, you shouldn't play that.

Also the player that lost 300BB in an hour, recouped those losses and made a profit within the following 3 hours that I played with him. He did it without any huge pot that I can remember. Just a lot of good value betting and well executed bluffs. These games are sooooooo soft. If you keep you head right, it is like printing money.

Actually it can just be a bad run not tilt as I buy in for $500 a long with a lot of other people. By 2:00 am it is not uncommen for 4 or more people to have $1200 or more chips in front of them. Bad beats are going to happen and situations where both players have to get the money in.

If you don't mind advice from a fish 3 buy ins(BI) because after you lose the 1st BI we call them worms and say we can beat them.So we get baited out and find out they are not worms but a decoy to get us for the 2nd BI. !oh and after you lose the 2nd BI u should be bust and go home because as a fish you should not plan to win. Real talk 3rd BI is for the *wink wink* you were looking at all day. THE LIFE OF A FISH

UGH!

tisk tisk.

every 1/2 game you've played in ever had a 500$(250BB's) buy in?

why are you 3 betting to 100 in a 1/2 game? is that not excessive. You cause your own demise with a bloated pot.

In the second hand if you knew aggro fish was shoving in that spot enough of the time you should have checked behind and taken a card. After said turn card you would have known your 18 percent to a flush and would have had a much cheaper look at the river.

4k is excessive. way excessive for a 1/2 live game. if your worried about losing that much then you probably shouldnt play a game that you dont think you can beat.

If ur playing 100 BB stacks thats losing 20 buyins. you suck basically. you dont run bad for 20 buyins.

I've enjoyed this thread.
Might as well offer my story.

Since establishing a bankroll during the wonderful days of party poker, I've played live B&M casino poker ever since. Have always remained, at least slightly, ahead of the game; still, the swings can be devastating. A little more than a year ago, I won 3,000 over the course of a month, only to lose 2,000 over the next two weeks. I left the game for 10 weeks. Simply couldn't take it any more.

In just the last 15 weeks, though up 6,800 I've experienced two different 1,100 downswings Even while making better than $35/hour. After the first one, I was right on the edge of my breaking point, but won 1,000 with my next buy-in. I hope I never experience another 2,000 downswing (or, for that matter, a 1,100 downswing) but I know they happen.

The biggest change in my game is I've slowly come to terms with the fact that they do.

If you play poker for 10 years with 20 BI the chance you will be broke at least once during that time is about 100%.

I think most players would need at least 100BI to get the chance below 90%.

1/2 more action than 1/1, interesting....

WAT?

I agree with what most people here said, 20 buyins for 1/2. That's $4000. But if you want to play LAG you'll need more, something like $7000 or more.

My friend has been playing 2/2 nl all month live (buying in for $200) to test the waters and wants to know what his bankroll should be. He has 154 hours logged and has kept track of sessions. I don't know how to plug in his numbers (std), but here they are so far. What should I tell him?

What should you tell him about what?

What his bankroll should be for that game.

Lol the 9 cards have a higher chance of coming on the turn then the river? maybe you meant 32% by the river

What if He considers his 2 overs as outs, so he thinks he has 15 outs?

50 buy ins if you plan to play poker to make a living and have no other income. So, for 1/2 with $200 buy in probably $10K will do the job. For 2/5 I would recommend $25K if buying for $500

I agree with the first part. I don't know anybody who's played at a stake where they could make a living, played full-time for that living, and done it for 10 years straight who never went on at least close to a 20 BI downer or the rough equivalent in limit games.

The second part is ridiculous. I come pretty close to the requirments and have never gotten close to 100 bi's or the equivalent when I played limit. You're not 10% to have a 100 buy in downer even if you're just barely beating the game. The statement might be correct in that most people would need a ton of buy ins to never go broke because most people are losing players but in the context of the thread I don't think it makes much sense.

The sentiment is true though for all the people who play the local 1/2 game every other weekend and think it's impossible to have a losing session much less go on a downswing you play enough the cards will do you wrong in some pretty brutal ways for a nice stretch at some point (I'm talking about if you're playing square games obviously).

The bigger thing is just the life management as well. I'm not saying you always have to be a nit but if you're saying you want to make a living on the turn of cards that you're able to put slightly in your favor you better put money away. Life happens. You have a parent die and find out they weren't prepared at all and have to shell out a nice chunk of your own change for the funeral. You get really sick and can't work for 4 months. You face some insane frivilous law suit from an ex who turned psycho and have to go lawyer. You get robbed. Whatever. You never think this stuff will happen but something happens to just about everybody. If you're asking what is the bankroll for making a life out of this the answer is pinch those pennies or hope you've got a great guardian angel. You live the baller life when you're up no purely on felt risk of ruin analysis is going to save you from some trying times in a trying enough when things are good industry.

I don't think your numbers can be correct, it has his standard deviation at $46/hr and it should be more like $150/hr I think.

If these numbers were correct and a representative sample then you only need about 1 buyin to have a 5% risk of ruin. I think we can agree that's not reasonable so there must be a mistake, or the sample is too small/skewed in some way.

If he had the same win rate (which is possible but it's pretty high, sample's too small to know) and $150/hour stdev then to have a 5% ror he'd need a bankroll of about $2500. For a 1% ror, more like 3500-4k.

Of course, you'd really rather have a loooooot larger sample than this. 154 live hours contains less hands than many online grinders play per day.

I find this hard to believe, you are basically saying that a good player will get it in bad ~10 times in a row and not ever drawing out. This does not sound like a decent player. It sound like a casual river donk who want to have fun. While I do know that you can have huge swings I just cannot see a good player ever getting it in this bad. Is he playing AKS into AA 10 times or some other crap that doesn't make sense in real life outside the bubble of mathematical models? bigtuna is correct with what he say, if you go on a 2k downswing in a NL1/2 you should seriously consider quiting the game and only play for fun in home games for nickle and dimes.

I have come across a few players who have some serious swing but I would not say that anyone of them are any good. They are decent at best and just sit in feeding the games. To get loses at the size some say WILL come is not variance but a bad player at the table. While there may be some theoretical probability for this happening I cannot see this happening that often, in fact I would say these are unique events.

You will need to run really bad! I'd say chances are higher that you suck if you lose 2k at the NL1/2 (100 cap) then running bad. Flips aren't as hot as some think and they have some intrinsic values in them that few can evaluate properly. Flipping with a 400BB stack isn't as hot as doing the same with a 100BB stack. The amount of bad luck one would need (as a good player) to sit down and lose 10 buy ins at the 1/2 have probably not been heard of in real life. That a bad player will have these swings is only natural and really not anything a good player should consider when building his BR.

You do not recognize that a lot of player over value their skills at the table. They can't get a handle on why they have the huge swings and why they seem to get in behind more then others. I'd say you won't ind that many playing the 1/2 for 10 years, they either quit the game or move up to higher levels where they can make a living. The win rates you need at the NL1/2 playing a 100BB cap is insane and probably not achievable by many players out there in a game where you have at leas 2 other players who don't suck big time at a 9~10 man table.

I do however agree that life-roll-management should be a much bigger concern for a poker player then the bank-roll-management. But still, a bad player will never make money no mater what strategy they take toward their game. A bad player is a losing player and cannot by default be a winner (albeit they can be whiners).

For OP: Finding your true skill level should be a bigger concern then finding the proper BRM strategy for your game.

7k-10k. Strict stop losses.

Of course people do win the lottery, I guess. You could 200bi with 1k, run like gawd, brag to everyone how your so good TAG/Nit and went from 1k-4500 and its possible, when in reality, that's the exception, not the rule.

Role yourself properly most good players say, and then you have more room to play properly.

Good luck though, wish you the best. Stay in the game.


edit- thread is old

First, I do recognize a lot of players over-value their skills and even said in my post a BR isn't going to save a losing player. As for higher levels I didn't say 1/2 nl I said profesional poker as I was responding to a guy who seemed to be talking about that. I have no idea what the BR requirements for $100 cap limit hold em are in the current environment I don't play or even observe that game.

Oh, and I finally read the op the answer to his original question just about has to be something like "not much". I was responding to another post in the thread obviously.

I was going to invite him to Hawaiian Gardens.

Isn't that half the point?

i was thinking 20 buy ins was not enough...but i like to play LAG...but if your not playing the same people frequently and playing LAG won't help your image to get action then yes 20 buy ins should be more than fine. The problem is it sounds like if you do play well and win 10 buy ins youd take a shot at 2/5 with 6000 and thats nowhere near enough for 2/5 unless you are the nittiest person alive which isnt good either