Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-13-2019, 04:42 PM   #1
pokerlifeever
stranger
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 11
Bad spot to bluff ?

Hi all. 1/2 game
Fold to me in LJ(800$) К 10 saw the Cut off grab chips well before the action (15$) I limp 2$
Cut-off(Main Villain) (450$) raise 15$ plays fairly straight forward however is not a nit.
BB(300$) call ,
I call as well
3-way Action
Flop (45$) Q 10 6
We both check . Main Villain C-bet 40$ , BB fold , I call
Turn (125$) A
I check. He bets 100$
Hero raises to 400$

We block the nut flush, if villain is competent, he will be able to fold a smaller flush/set .
AA or QQ
AQ ?
Did I choose a bad spot to bluff with my specific hand?
what better bluffs have in this spot/
pokerlifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 04:53 PM   #2
jshah
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 107
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

I think this is a fine spot to bluff, with the 3rd diamond dropping you're representing a flush. Even if you get called, you have a redraw to the nut flush on the river.
jshah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:20 PM   #3
browni3141
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: South Florida
Posts: 2,954
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Why would you play this hand at all pre, especially knowing there will be a raise behind you? Fold pre twice and fold KTo from the LJ as a standard.

I would play post the same way, but don’t expect small flushes to fold.
browni3141 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:23 PM   #4
twitcherroo
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 1,131
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

I like the concept, but I think the stack sizes make this a little awkward. You’re repping a L high or Q high flush? Would you really over PSB jam the turn with the effective nuts? Or with a smaller flush? I think a thinking V would look you up with AQ+, maybe as low as A10. Certainly V is calling with a set or straight. I think generally multi street bluffs work better than a single bullet but the stacks don’t really allow for that here. Probably works because the absolute size of the bet is large but I wouldn’t attempt it versus a moron or thinking player. Nitty, Mubsy players surely fold.
twitcherroo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:37 PM   #5
wes c. addle
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 324
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Def fold pre. *Especially* when you sense he is raising. Playing this hand out of position is a leak (and many would dump it on the button).

On the turn, you mentioned 'raise to $400', but this is actually 'all-in', correct? He only had $295 after he bet $100 on the turn... Probably fine I suppose...
wes c. addle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 05:56 PM   #6
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 8,070
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Also wondering why you played this hand pre, especially knowing CO was going to raise?

Turn is fine. I hope he believed you or you spiked a diamond. How does he see you?
Javanewt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 08:18 PM   #7
Spanishmoon
centurion
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Northeast
Posts: 172
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo View Post
I like the concept, but I think the stack sizes make this a little awkward. You’re repping a L high or Q high flush? Would you really over PSB jam the turn with the effective nuts? Or with a smaller flush? I think a thinking V would look you up with AQ+, maybe as low as A10. Certainly V is calling with a set or straight. I think generally multi street bluffs work better than a single bullet but the stacks don’t really allow for that here. Probably works because the absolute size of the bet is large but I wouldn’t attempt it versus a moron or thinking player. Nitty, Mubsy players surely fold.
I agree with you because of stack sizes. But it's close.

Hero: "if villain is competent, he will be able to fold a smaller flush/set"

Really?

I seriously doubt whether a competent or incompetent V would fold a set or a straight or even a small flush (which I think he'd jam ott). V's range/line suggest he's ahead. He's raised pre-flop, c-betted and led turn with something other than napkins presumably.

And V is getting ~1.8:1 to call H's turn xr (as V has 295 behind here if I'm adding correctly) effective jam, so V may like his chances.

That said, jamming is high variance but has more EV than calling. I think H has maybe 20-25% FE against V range (targeting JJ/KQs - 9 combinations) of (AA-TT, KQs/KJs, AK/AQ/AJ/ATs) and maybe 27% actual equity against this range. And H is never getting paid for his NF if he hits it so the hand is mostly over ott.

I'd rather try this move against a deeper V who would feel less pot committed and where my FE was likely higher.. But that's what makes a horse race. AP I think V will find a sigh call.
Spanishmoon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-13-2019, 11:20 PM   #8
twitcherroo
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 1,131
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Spanish moon - agree completely that V's stack size and turn bet sizing really limit our options and the expected outcome from V post H's shove.
twitcherroo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 02:00 AM   #9
Minatorr
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 3,837
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerlifeever View Post
Hi all. 1/2 game
Fold to me in LJ(800$) К 10 saw the Cut off grab chips well before the action (15$) I limp 2$
Cut-off(Main Villain) (450$) raise 15$ plays fairly straight forward however is not a nit.
BB(300$) call ,
I call as well
3-way Action
Flop (45$) Q 10 6
We both check . Main Villain C-bet 40$ , BB fold , I call
Turn (125$) A
I check. He bets 100$
Hero raises to 400$

We block the nut flush, if villain is competent, he will be able to fold a smaller flush/set .
According to whom.....?

A straightforward guy is going to play straightforward on this turn.

Trying to get low-stakes players to fold sets/flushes is pretty optimistic and should most definitely not be your default play, no matter what your hand is.
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 02:03 AM   #10
Minatorr
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 3,837
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Fold pre both times. Calling the 7.5 iso-raise OOP is much worse than the initial limp. If you want to play it, at least come in for a raise. But it doesn't seem like your fundamentals warrant that this'll be at least a BE open, not trying to be mean

Turn is a call.
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 04:05 AM   #11
Badreg2017
old hand
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,824
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Fold pre. His raising range crushed KTo and we will be OOP.

You can bluff here if you want but he has a lot of strong hands on this board and people don’t like folding. The good news is we have 30% equity against AQ. I did a quick breakdown so I’m sorry if I got the numbers wrong but it looks like we need V to fold about 30% of the time for our shove to be break even. Then again, call is going to be +EV so we need or shove to be better than break even.

V also shouldn’t be folding flushes on the turn unless he thinks you are a nit and is trying to exploit you. Even his sets should be calling against a strong opponent.
Badreg2017 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 06:59 AM   #12
venice10
Referee
 
venice10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Nowhere special
Posts: 22,967
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Fold pf twice. A competent villain in not going to fold a set/smaller flush as played. If he was over-worried about the flush draw on the flop, he would have checked the turn.
venice10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 02:28 PM   #13
jtm1208
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 525
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

0% chance V is folding a flush herem. you'd have to have limp called KJdd OR K9dd preflop first into the pot as in the LJ...unlikely you're limping those there.

If you're gonna bluff in this hand, at these stack sizes then i think it's best to flat turn and shove river. I'd expect all straights and flushes to call, most of the sets probably depending on the river.
jtm1208 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 03:00 PM   #14
pokerlifeever
stranger
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 11
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
Fold pre both times. Calling the 7.5 iso-raise OOP is much worse than the initial limp. If you want to play it, at least come in for a raise. But it doesn't seem like your fundamentals warrant that this'll be at least a BE open, not trying to be mean

Fold pre, I agree with you

Turn is a call.
never getting paid for NF if he hits it so the hand is mostly over ott.
pokerlifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 03:08 PM   #15
pokerlifeever
stranger
 
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 11
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

[QUOTE=twitcherroo;54828782]I like the concept, but I think the stack sizes make this a little awkward.
+1

he ended up having a Q 9.


We spiked a diamond on the river
pokerlifeever is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-14-2019, 03:15 PM   #16
jtm1208
grinder
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 525
Re: Bad spot to bluff ?

Bad play gets rewarded haha

Sent from my VS996 using Tapatalk
jtm1208 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online