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Bad Sizing When FD Hits Turn Bad Sizing When FD Hits Turn

09-14-2020 , 06:04 PM
This is great. I've heard marginal utility discussed before, but have not heard the title of it used. Knowing a short and sweet title helps me keep the concept in my mind so hopefully I can be mindful of this particular pitfall.

Sunk Cost Fallacy is another good one. I heard it said on the "Hidden Brain" podcast that economists are just about the only people who regularly leave a theater before the movie is over if they are not enjoying the film. The rest of us value the ticket we have already paid for. Economists realize the ticket is already spent and their time is more valuable than completing a task they aren't enjoying.

Obviously sunk cost has applications in poker as well. Like getting too attached to premium pockets or strong hands when the board gets super wet.
Bad Sizing When FD Hits Turn Quote
09-18-2020 , 12:54 PM
I probably lean to a preflop fold but that's nitty me. If we knew it was going to go this multiway then I'd be finer with the call, although we are in bad spot relative to everyone (first to act after the preflop raiser), plus didn't even end up in absolute position.

I don't mind a bet here on this flop. We should have loads of equity and have some small FE even this multiway. Could possibly setup a free card play versus double barrel play depending on what we think is going on. I might bet smaller but whatever.

Turn is mostly stack and opponent dependent for me. If I need to bet twice to get stacks in, then I'm betting and just hoping for the best. If I don't need to bet twice to get stacks in, then I could consider checking, especially if he's one to bluff scarecards.

ETA: Knowing that effective stacks were $500, that means the pot is $165 and the remaining stacks are $440. If we PSB the turn, that'll leave $275 into $495 for the river (just over a 1/2 PSB which he'll have a hard time folding to at that point). If we bet $100 into $165, that'll leave $340 into $365 (pretty much a PSB which he'll have a harder time calling). Plus on the turn it's possible he has a hand he can't fold at this point (set, smaller flush, perhaps a big two pair) but will be able to fold on the river (when a fourth club comes or something stupid like that). So I would aim to larger here and think upwards of a PSB is fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Bad Sizing When FD Hits Turn Quote
09-18-2020 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
the hallmark live fish plays too many hands preflop and continues too liberally on the flop. The turn is where a lot of these people begin folding out trash that should’ve never been there.
This is the key point for me. At this point, just target the hands that can continue and don't really worry about the crap. It's very unlikely the crap was continuing to a $80 bet and folding to a $125 bet on the turn anyways, so just target the big hands with a big bet.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Bad Sizing When FD Hits Turn Quote

      
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