Hero is in the BB with KJ. Villain in the hand is an older guy, long time regular in the local $1/2 game. Knows everyone in the room, generally plays tight passive low risk poker. Effective stack in the hand is $200

Villain UTG makes it $7, 4 calls, Hero calls from BB.

Flop: A46 ($40)

Hero donks $15, V calls, CO shoves to $45 total, hero tanks and calls, V calls.

Turn: T ($175)

Hero donks whole stack for ~ $140

Questions I have are:

- How to calculate how often we need to generate a fold to make this play profitable?

- Was this line fps?

Thanks for your time!

This looks pretty standard to me, with two draws to the nuts we have about 3-1 to hit our draw, so we need roughly around 25% fold equity here.

Everyone agree?

To calculate how often you need a fold to generate a profit is fairly simple

Pot sized bet = 50% for break even

1/2 = 25% for break even, so on and so forth.

A player is all in correct? Why are you donking into a dry pot with a draw? Scared to get more value if you hit? Sick read that villain who shoved has a lesser draw that didn't hit the ten? Value betting vs lesser flush draws that didn't hit ten?

Thanks, yeah that makes sense about the fold equity calculation. You think it was standard to donk twice like this with K high? I did not like how I played this hand at all, though after thinking about it a while I decided it might have accidentally been profitable.

I think this is definetly profitable, given the description of the tight passive table, >PSB and a nutted combo draw im getting it in here all day. Sorry if you missed your draw.

What do you mean by dry pot? I wasn't happy with my decision to donk shove right after I did it. This line is really weird and doesn't look very strong, but I think my reasoning was to get UTG to fold (put him on an ace) to try and get heads up against the short stack for the pot who has a lot more draws in his range than UTG does...

I also didn't want to check to UTG because I wouldn't be getting good odds to call him off if he shoved (which I was expecting him to). I felt like shoving would give me some fold equity to make it +EV... Like I said above I don't like the line but I think it may have accidentally been ok.

I would really like check raising a player who prefers low-risk scenarios with your draw because he folds his ace pairs a lot. He also folds his draws when he's getting the wrong odds. Making the pot too big for the likely 1 pair seems like a good strategy.

Unfortunately one of your villains is all in, so he's not folding his likely ace. We have a sweet draw but I'd want to play it more passively here. I'd just be check/calling with the right odds.

This is an interesting play. You do have two draws to the nuts, however this play is best made in position in my opinion. 13 outs give you the best hand which gives you 26% equity on the turn. So if you don't include fold equity in the math you're not quite getting the correct odds. 175 in the pot, you bet 140 and v has to call 140, at this point his 140 has to be counted as implied odds if he makes the call. So you're putting in 140 into a potential 315 pot which is 2.5 pot odds, you're equity needs to be at least 40% to make this profitable. Now if we add the potential fold equity, then this could slightly work out to your advantage. However, I don't think this shove is a good move purely because if v does call you are not getting the right odds on your hand to make it profitable.

What makes you think villain is going to bet you off your draw when he could have raised turn? I think most times turn goes check check. FWIW, I like your line in that spot if there wasn't a player all in.

BTW, given your position relative to the original raiser, I prefer a check-raise on the flop (or check call depending on what everyone else does).

Finally, I don't think the T changes much and if you are going to open shove there why not just raise the flop when you have better equity and go heads up against the player whose range you think you dominate? You do lose $30 in value, but I would think the reason you would call the flop is because you would like to get value from the other villain when you hit.

it is not recommended to jam your stack into a dry side pot with king high. in this case, you risk all on a bluff where you still lose the pot 75% of the time even if the villain folds. it's not a good situation for you.

as for villain's hand and action: competent villains are rarely raising this flop spot. so, his range is still wide open. if you shove you MIGHT fold out some Ax, you pay nutted hands off, and I'd say you fold his flush draws out but based on your description he barely has any (you hold both K and J of the suit).

overall it's a pretty bad shove

What he means by "dry pot" is that CO is AI for the main pot and cannot be folded out (and can almost assuredly beat king-high), and there is no additional side between you and V so you don't immediately profit by folding him out, you're now all-in against CO with king-high and a bunch of outs.

To put it another way: the pot to which you claim fold equity of is zero, so there's no overall equity gained by shoving vs. calling.

There is, however, additional risk: what if V just has a stubborn top pair hand and decided "the pot's too big to fold", calls down and holds out? Your risk has now cost considerably more than if you'd just checked.

You might wanna run the numbers again on the profitability of this move.

This is very spewtacular. Why are you betting a dry pot with k high

On further analysis of this I have to change my statement, with CO being AI and no side pot I think its a bad move to ship. Sorry for the bad post.

Main question for me: you said bigger stacked villain is tight passive, will he stack offwith anything other than a set or AK here? If he's putting it in with AQ or worse, I think its a bad shove.

On a side note, if he's tight passive why not pick a better spot to steal over and over with little risk then jam a combo draw hoping the guy can fold A10-AQ in that spot, especially if he's the type that will call off 50 or so on the river when you hit.

I went back and read, especially with you tank calling flop, your line screams draw. With a guy reopeningfor you on the flop, if you had a made hand, you are isolating there and not on the turn.The only non drawing hand you could be put on that makes sense with the action is A10.

Thanks for the analysis guys! I knew I didn't feel good about the hand and now I realize it was deservedly so.

Results:

V calls with AK

River is Q and hero sucks out.