Quote:
Originally Posted by Case2
Curious about this. I wouldn't overbet the turn here. I very much want calls from the draws, especially the flush draws, which could be a good time if they pair the board. Don't we lose a ton of value if we overbet and let draws correctly fold?
The reasons why an overbet looks especially tempting here are:
1) turn is likely the last street of value
2) villain often has a combo draw. This is different from A
7
2
4
where he only has a flush draw or A
T
9
4
where he only has a straight draw.
3) we heavily block worse value. This is different from holding T
T
on A
T
9
4
. This is why #1 is true. If we block value he only has draws, if he only has draws there are no good rivers for us besides the T
/4
. He either misses or hits, either way no more value on many rivers. So in a spot where we dont block so much value (if we held TT for example), a more normal sizing is fine.
As for not wanting to overbet unknowns...im not sure the reasoning. Dont bluff unknowns sure, but for value it is a safe assumption that it brings villains physical pain to fold.
I overbet twice this weekend, once $600 into $200 and once $900 into $300. Both vs. unknowns, both snap called. The $600 into $200 got called by a bare Q high flush draw on 5
6
7
8
. This villain had shown no sigh of being a station or whale, seemed like a standard player.