I have been reading some of the stickies around playing good pre-flop poker and 'fold more pre', some great content on here.

I want to throw out a theory for discussion as I assume I am wrong but am not sure why.

First Assumptions
1. Talking about 1/2 and 2/5 LLSNL
2. Assume we have a skill edge vs the field

Train of Thought
1. Pre-flop decisions/mistakes magnify into larger post flop decisions/mistakes. I think this is fairly self evident.

2. We want to magnify the $ involved in skilled decisions or mistakes where we have a skill edge. What I mean by that is if we have 55%/45% skill edge against a player; we would rather that edge show up in a $200 river decision vs. a $20 pre-flop decision.

3. Making imperfect pre-flop decisions in situations where we have a skill edge, can allow us to maximize skill edge on turns/rivers where the $ is much more significant.

4. This will obviously end up being a much higher variance approach than playing perfect pre-flop poker.

5. I don't believe this approach should be taken to the degree of playing horrible pre-flop and is villain dependent based on the perceived skill edge

6. Many people (probably including me) likely overestimate skill edge vs. field so this approach becomes an excuse for poor pre-flop play vs intentionally working towards +EV spots where we can exploit skill edge




I guess my personal experience (not GTO or 'perfect' poker) has shown that LLSNL is more about getting villains to make material mistakes in big spots than playing each decision especially PF and Flop based on GTO or perfect EV analysis.

So in net, I find making some slightly/moderately bad pre-flop decisions that would be net -EV in a 5/10 or higher game, may be only bad preflop but actually +EV overall in a 1/2 or 2/5 game.



I am probably not articulating this very well, and I hear so much 'fold pre' in these forums that I am guessing I am either flat out wrong, or at very least that most folks disagree with the above, so I'd like to understand why so I can tune my approach at lower limits.

Flame away...

Yea theres some spots you can open wider range of hands in the right circumstances against some weaker players but in general no.. Stick to a solid range of hands and do not get too much out of line preflop, post flop is where 95% of outplays happen

Also players make biggest mistakes on flop and river, least amount of mistakes preflop. And 1/2 and 2/5 and even 5/10 live play the same. Of course the higher up you go the less noobs you will find. Played some huge whales in 5/10 and some sharks in 1/2.

Sounds to me like you are trying to justify playing a wider range of hands preflop. Instead of making mistakes like flatting with A10 off my advice would be to 3b more often in position with suited connecting cards/1gappers or suited aces. I've 3b as wide as K7suited against some more inexp players

To take it even further, you will lose your edge against tighter players over a large sample if you continuously make -ev decisions preflop, theres a reason why the best players in the world all have a similar range of hands..

I really disagree. Ed Miller makes this point, and I agree from my own observations: by the time you reach the 2/5+ blind levels, you're left with players that have some hand reading abilities as well as fold buttons. The biggest difference between solid players and capable recs&regs is in preflop ranges.

The biggest mistakes players make in terms of monetary value(Dollar amount) are on flop and river

Can't remember I the last time I played in a 2/5 game and people didn't seem solid/competent preflop aside from maybe a few outliers. People just play preflop more so even the rec players will have more experience in preflop spots. Most value comes from post flop, specifically flop and river. Very surprised you think otherwise Quantum.

Also you seem to be a huge Ed Miller fan, just so you know the books he wrote in 2004 are different games then the games we play in today. The game has evolved and is continuing to change

I'm actually going the opposite route lately with my strategy, and basically slowly moving towards a super nit preflop strategy. Mostly this has to do with how my table has evolved over the years, but overall I think (a) it is loose and aggro preflop (creating lottsa small SPR multiway pots than to some extent play themselves out automatically), (b) there's not nearly as many clueless postflop morans (especially opponents who will hurp durp in stacks in high SPR pots with one pair, etc.), and (c) the ever increasing rake just rapes everyone dicking around in small pots postflop. All of these points really bring into question exactly how much of a postflop edge I have on many of my opponents, so basically my big edge against most opponents is preflop (so long as I can get in significant chunks of stacks with my TP type hands).

Gplayingashortstackstrategyina100bbgameG

I think there is a good premise in the OP, but we're getting hung up on "definitions." Let me make a couple of declarations to see if people would agree.

1. The greater the skill advantage you have over the field, the more hands you can play profitably.

My own personal example was prior to Black Friday, I would play 2nl for ****s and giggles from time to time. My VPIP was 85% and I was beating the game easily. I'd only fold to a 3bet. Lots of hands because playable because I didn't really need a hand to win enough. So I think you can open up against a weaker field. But you want those hands to remain profitable. So you aren't playing -EV hands. You are playing hands that at that table become +EV, even if much of the time they are -EV for you.

2. The four elements of winning poker are: Hand Strength pf, Initiative, Position and Skill.

Have three of the four elements and you are likely to win the hand. Have two and you need to have an overwhelming advantage in those two areas. LLSNL players believe they have a huge advantage in Skill a lot of the time. They are mostly wrong. Most of the HH where people run into trouble is where Hero assumes they can out play their opponents with a mediocre hand in early position. They add insult to injury when they decide to limp in because they don't want to bloat the pot.

So why say "fold pf?" It is often clear in the lack of reads of the villains or the decisions the Hero makes prior to the final decision that Hero lacks the skill to play that hand in that position. It doesn't mean I wouldn't play it. For example in a 100 BB game vs. mid position raise of 6 BB, I'd advise an inexperienced player to fold 76s in late position. The reason is they are often playing fit or fold poker post flop. They won't hit often enough to make it profitable. An experienced player would know a lot of how the PFR plays his hands and would be able to win some hands without the best hand.

So how do I tell that the poster is inexperienced? The experienced player wouldn't have created the thread. He or she won't ask what they need to do.

This just isn't true though is it....and when we look at the 'best players in the world' they invariably play really wide, messed up ranges, and as op eluded to. Use superior posy flop play to make better decisions than there proponents on the streets where the big bets go in.

Standard tight pre-flop raises will help you become a small winner, if you want to go beyond that you have to be willing to mix up your game..

The most profitable poker at low stakes is nothing like GTO poker. There is generally more fishing for good flops because villains are bad and a lot less reraising and bluffing because villains are stationary. Does this mean playing some hands that are not straight value? Yes. Does it mean calling/making raises wide OOP all the time? No.

If your opponents are letting you play a super nitty strategy and still paying you off when you hit they are terrible. It may still be the right adjustment for your situation. I run into that sort of game every so often. Where the table is loaded with rec players who are determined to see a decent number of flops in the couple of hours they get to play and are not giving up with any part of the board or any draw to a single bet.

I think we are looking at this all wrong. I cater my preflop ranges to my opponents. If they play straightforward, we can play a huge % of hands vs them IP and print money. If they are capable/adjusting/thinking players, we can't. Luckily until you play 5/10, the latter is very unlikely. Target straightforward players and exploit.

No, that's not true at all. What is true, is that when you look at televised poker, especially from years ago, the hands they chose to put on TV often involved the 74 suited against AK type hands because they made for good TV.

Right now there's a 25/50 game running on pokerstars filled with great players. Nobody is showing down T8o or A7o on the river.

They ignored the 90% of hands that ended pre-flop or ended on the flop with a fold to a continuation bet.

It's important that when you're trying to apply point 2 to your opponents that point 1 doesn't apply to you. If you expand your preflop range too much, you're the one who starts to get into tough spots on the flop/turn/river and you start to be the one making the big mistakes.

Surprised nobody has brought up stack sizes yet.

You can't and probably will not be accurate in estimating the skill edge you have over your opponents because the nature of randomness and variance in this game is of such a magnitude that you see things distorted unless you have a large data base of events.

Make it simpler and manageable: Attack weakness and avoid strength. If villains are infrequent action players they involuntarily tells you how to play against them because they're mostly fish. They will advertise loud and clear telling you "come in and smash my head into the ground" and some other times will just tell you they have a big hand and you should avoid them.

They will split their hands in two big categories. One, the limping hands, although weakness, so we can attack. Two, the raising hands, strength, we get away. Also they have the very special group for 3! (AA/KK) or shoving. The very very big ocean fish go so far as to never release the AA or KK and jump into the deep end of the river at the showdown regardless how the action is or how deep the stacks are or how scary the the 4 card str8 or str8-flush looks to everyone looking at the board.

Just do an experiment and notice when some of them limp sometime or raise other times. You just raise every time they limp and get away if you don't have a hand that can withstand a raise or 3! yourself. See for yourself how easy it is especially in 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5 games. Also don't forget that in small games 3! are very rare also the big turn bets and river big bets represent strength. So, keep those small detail in mind and go for the experiment and may as well make some extra cash for your wallet in the process and have your game tune up to be a better player. Way way way above the high end of the average of good players..., Trust me.., Just do the experiment and see for yourself the results.

Take a look for about 1/2 hour or more and put an X on the forehead of 2-3 limpers and sometime raisers. Focus on that group of players. Raise every time they limp and get away when they come raising unless you got a raising hand that fits the GAP concept. (you know what that GAP concept of David Sklansky is all about ..., Don't you?)

Go for it and come back here and tell us about.

My table has slowly evolved to a weird state that most opponents aren't paying me off (or anyone else, for that matter) postflop. However, it is very loose preflop and very aggro, so the "payoff" really only occurs on the one street: preflop. Thus the super nit strategy, one that is mostly just about taking down all the huge dead money preflop (and would mostly be fine with never seeing a flop).

It's something I harp on all the time here, but 6way pots for $20 each with $300 effective stacks pretty much play themselves out automatically postflop. If anyone thinks they are "outplaying" anyone postflop in those situations, they're mistaken; you're most likely playing the exact same guessing game they are.

GsupernitG

UTG opens for $15 in a 1/3NL game. He is 65 & tilty as he has been sucked out on a few times & doesn't like the way seats 7,8,9 play so loose against him. He is in seat 10, with a $325 stack.

Seat 2 [$400] calls; folds to seat 7 OTB, who calls with 95; he knows his cards are live & calls. He knows Tilty has AK or big pair; maybe AQ or KQs. Maybe.

BB who has everyone covered, calls.

Flop: A95 $54 in pot raked.

BB checks, Tilty bets $25, seat 2 calls; seat 7 [who has sucked out on Tilty] raises to $75, BB folds.....

Tilty says "No way!" Seat 7 has made c-bets with air on occasion & bet with weak holdings OTT & OTR, but usually won. Takes Tilty about 20 seconds to shove. Seat 2 folds & seat 7 insta-calls. Tilty has AK & doesn't improve.

Garbage in, garbage out.....here the garbage in was 95s & the garbage out was the tilty player.

It's like stealing candy from a baby when you know you can score big with your garbage hand against a player whose range is face-up when he o/r UTG for $15 & then bets the ace high flop.

Give seat 7 a pair of 5s OTF along with a flush draw & he's calling & if a 9 comes OTT or even a 5, Tilty isn't going to believe 7 paid $15 pre with a 5 in his hand. The flush is the only thing that may save Tilty all of his stack, but he's calling a value bet OTT.

Player on my left was in the 1/3NL game for $1200 when I left. All due to bad play. Real bad play. I left when the fish ran out of fight & swam off.

It was Pokerstars 1998 @ the MGM in Maryland

Yes this is the HH that describes my OP. I can't tell you how many times I have intentionally made very bad preflop calls for $15-25 bucks in 1/2 and 2/5 games against villains who I know are on QQ+ with good stacks but that aren't skilled enough to get away from them.

The looser opens also allow me to have more turn/river bluffs than normal which I do much more than most. I don't actually intend for my bluffs to make money, hopefully they break even. But I can get caught in a small bluff in a $200 pot, and then somehow villains assume I would make the same bluff in a $1000 pot when I actually bink with garbage.

As I personally am starting to move up to 5/10 this is the biggest adjustment, I can't assume villains will make the same turn/river mistakes, so I can't bleed chips in questionable pre-flop and flop spots because those villains will exploit it more early as well as not pay off when I hit.

There might be a false premise in the OP which I would like to clear up (whether there is or not).

There is no such thing as perfect preflop play. And hands are not +EV or -EV in a vacuum. For instance if you're playing with weak/tight players who x/f too often you can play ATC in position profitably.

We play hands like 33 / 65s / A5s because over the course of all streets we expect them to be profitable against the villains in hand. They aren't bad hands pre-flop merely because it takes a while for their equity to be realized.

So we can't say it's -EV to call with these hands pre-flop if continuing with them on favorable boards is on average +EV.

And the same applies to all hands. We can't really rank hands best to worst in an absolute sense. It's critical to consider whether we can realize the equity of a given hand which in that specific situation, which is generally more important than how it performs heads up all-in vs another hand.

So if the table conditions, players, position, etc., are such that raising Q6s is profitable from the cutoff, it's not a bad hand in that situation or -EV.

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I have no idea what this example is supposed to show. Of course, sometimes we flop bottom 2, get it in with 80% equity on the flop, and that rules. How often does that happen? How often do we flop one pair, pay some post-flop and fail to improve? How often do we just whiff and fold? How often does V show up in this spot with AA or A9 and own us, or KK/QQ and fold to our reraise? I don't really think someone getting in 100 BBs with TPTK on this board is such a big mistake that we've proven anything.

Others may disagree, but I think that people mistake what makes a good player. They think that a good player is able to overcome the lack of cards or lack of position. I think that much of what makes a good player is playing big pots when he has big cards/position, and avoiding big pots when he doesn't. Of course you can overcome some of this with good post-flop decision making, but I believe people overestimate this at times.

That is the point I started this thread to open debate on.

What you say above (i.e. play 'good' from pre-flop to river) is certainly a very profitable strategy at LLSNL; no debate there.

My IRL experience (a lot less than many on this forum) would seem to provide evidence that it is not the MOST profitable strategy at LLSNL where villains are prone to making a lot of turn/river mistakes in big pots. Experientially it would seem to be profitable to pay a slight 'penalty' via bad pre-flop play where there is a skill edge in exchange for creating more opportunities for villains to make mistakes when pots are $10x on the river.

If I lose $150 in a session making 10 x $15 'worse than normal' pre-flop calls, but those 10 chances result in 1 additional spot where a villain makes a bad river play in a $500 pot (say folding best hand to our bluff on a bad runout, or stacking off with an overpair against our bad 2 pair) we have made a $350 profit in hands we wouldn't have played if we were playing 'good' pre-flop poker (assuming we wash on small wins/losses in the other 9 pots).


Obviously I wouldn't advocate this approach should be extended to being crazy with pre-flop ranges, and I think you shouldn't overestimate skill advantage which we all probably do. But I think it is strategy worthy of debate/perspective.

I have definitely at LLSNL been trying to shift my approach AWAY from focusing just on playing 'good' poker myself, and instead trying to manipulate situations and villains into spots they will make mistakes. Anecdotally the latter has worked better at LLSNL, although I don't believe it works well at really skilled 2/5 and higher stakes.

But playing a hand pre-flop because you (accurately, presumably) believe it will be +EV to continue with this hand against the current array of villains is not "bad pre-flop play," it's standard exploitative play.

There is no pre-flop "penalty." I mean virtually all pre-flop hands are -EV if that's the only street we're looking at. EX: We raise AJ. People aren't folding often enough for this to be +EV in itself (unless maybe we raise ONLY AJ), and getting it in is not a good option either. We make our money on later streets.

You can look at all hands as requiring X amount of money to be made post-flop when called (or 3-bet or whatever). For instance, we open a hand to 5BB and expect to win the blinds a third of the time. So you could look at this as all hands lose 1/3(1.5) - 2/3(5) = -2.83BB in this situation. We play this hand because we believe we can make at least 2.83BB in post-flop play. This is a slight oversimplification because of reraising pre-flop, but it's sufficient to illustrate the point, which is that every hand loses money pre-flop if we are opening at even close to a decent frequency. But it's not a penalty, and if we play AJ because we expect to make at least 2.83BB in this situation, we can play any other hand for the same reason.

The math is different for limping but same idea. We invest 1BB and expect to make at least 1BB on average with that hand to compensate. And we also should expect to make more by limping than by raising to choose limping.

The table dynamics--your opponents, your image, your position, the skill of your opponents, etc.--determines with which group of hands we can recoup our preflop losses. Obviously this includes the standard premium hands. But yeah, in sufficiently soft games this often includes weak hands like 95 or K9 etc., depending on our position. If we're super skilled and our opponents super bad we might be able to play ATC in position.

MIB211, What the HH I posted shows, is what a good player can do when he has position & knows his opponent's o/r range UTG, in addition knowing that he is on tilt, frustrated from the fact that the Young Bucks have been beating him with hands like 87s when he o/r with KQs. What Mr. Tilty didn't realize, is that they just folded OTF when they whiffed.

Young Buck knew, that when he raised to $75 & Mr. Tilty didn't come back over the top, he was up against 3 outs, or runner, runner pair. Sure, he only had a chance of flopping 2pr but he had other possibilities & absolute position.

Last night I played in a game where a guy in his 70s was playing loose. He'd raise in LP when 2 limped with hands like 76o & was killing it. Had over 2k in front of him. I got there late, but was there long enough to see that he had the table on tilt trying to crack his ass, but he just folded OTF when he whiffed.

A very healthy 70+ yr old, with a sharp brain, able to put players on ranges. I've played with him before & this wasn't the 1st time he walked away a winner.

He was even telegraphing his hands pre; raising to $12/$15/$18/$25/$30 pre based upon his hand strength & number of players already calling the open/limp.

He played Kd5d OTB for $17, flopped a K & a diamond draw; called the flop bet & turned trips & scooped a nice pot because they don't want to believe he has the goods.

I think skill, coupled with position & knowing your opponent[s], trumps hand strength, being OOP & having the initiative.

In your example V does come over the top and shove flop...

More generally, these examples don't really help. Of course it's awesome to play Kd5d OTB, flop TP and a diamond draw and improve to trips. Without a view on how likely that event is, it doesn't answer the question. Moreover, in your new example, V has position and initiative, and an OK hand.

Here are my thoughts more generally. I think these first two points are probably incontrovertible:

1. As post-flop skills improve, some hands that would've been a fold pre become +EV. This is on the margins, but as you get better post-flop there will be hands that should've been folded that instead should be played.
2. Post-flop skills matter more when stacks are deeper as compared to open raise sizes. Skill does not matter much when facing a pre-flop raise of $25 from a player with a $100 stack and matters a lot more if effective stacks are $1000 or when facing a limp rather than a raise.

However, the info above doesn't really say whether you or I should play more hands generally pre. Why not?

1. Most people playing live (though not all) err in playing too many hands pre rather than too few. I certainly suffer from this. If you're playing too many hands pre anyway, then getting better post-flop may turn some of the hands you're already playing into +EV hands, and make some of the other hands less -EV. However, if that's your case, getting better post-flop doesn't mean you should add to your range, in fact you should still tighten your range pre. It just means that you shouldn't tighten it as much.
2. As evidence of #1, I've never played with anyone live and thought "He's so good post-flop, he really should be involved in more hands". I've played with a number of Vs of whom I've thought "He's very good post-flop, he'd be a better player if he tightened up some pre, but he's usually at a big disadvantage because he's playing too many hands." Again, most people err towards playing too many hands.
3. Even an OMC, who plays a tight range, isn't someone who should loosen up pre. The OMC is a slightly winning player only because he uses a very tight range pre to overcome several mistakes post, namely playing too fit-or-fold and overvaluing made hands. If he loosened up pre these would actually be worse.
4. People are much more likely to overestimate their skill post-flop than underestimate it. This is akin to everyone thinking they're an above-average driver.
5. People don't necessarily fully understand what it means to have a skill advantage. You can't just say so-and-so is fish, and so I should play more hands with him. You have to know why they're a fish, and how to exploit. For instance, a lot of people are fish largely because they play too many hands pre. You can't really exploit them by playing more hands pre yourself.

There's a player I play with who is truly awful. He always limps pre-flop unless he has KK+, but never folds pre-flop. He will call with any piece of the board, including a gutter or sometimes just two overcards. He bets 20% of pot with top pair, but will never fold post, and therefore gives you odds to stack him by hitting trips or two pair with middle pair. If he bets more than half of pot, he has two pair +, and you can fold unless you're ahead or drawing to move ahead. I obviously try to play as many hands as possible against him when stacks are 100 BBs deep, but it's an extreme example. More generally, I doubt there are many spots where people are going to improve their results by expanding their range pre.