Playing in a 2-5 home game that plays huge normally and has a group of guys that open big and light early and often in the night. Game just started and I have hard reads on everyone in the hand since I play every week.

Everything here is preflop and this is more a math question than anything else. I have 550 pre all cover me

Villain 1. Limp under gun
Villain 2 to his left raises to 40 (yes that's his standard open and means absolutely nothing, his range is any two and am more than willing to get in all in pre with him with a-q+ or 10-10+. Called all in once for 300bb with 7-8 off)
Villain 3: cu calls 40 (this guy is actually pretty good and can play tricky, hes a big thinking player bit sometimes thinks to deep and levels himself)
Hero: button looks down at AQ and raises to 170. Feels like a standard spot here to narrow field and get value
Villain 1 tanks for about 3 minutes and calls. Now I known he has exactly 10-10 or jj and will fold to any c bet on the flop if he doesnt hit. Trust me that's his range here - no a-k, aa, kk or qq BC he raises pre with qq/ ak and would ship the kk+ after my bet.

Original raiser folds (not surprised). Villain 3 tanks for about 5 minutes and ships. Now this is horrifying cause now his range is 88+ with the majority skewed towards kings or queens. I know he's putting villain 1 on the same range as me so I really thinks its JJ, qq, or kk.

So I tank and villain 1 acts out of turn and says **** it I call and flips over his jacks before I act. Now since this is binding I now know his hand do I have to call assuming the other guy has kk or qq? I'm 25% against jacks and kings pre and I'm putting 330 into a 1300 pot (or so).

I appreciate the advise

You are getting slightly less than 4 to 1 to call. Assuming the unknown hand is TT - 22 you are roughly 3 to 1 to win. If unknown is KK or QQ you are slightly more than 4 to 1 to call. AA or AK would be worst case.

Given the wide range of hands the unknown can open with I wouldn't say it's a bad move to call the 330, but it isn't a hugely profitable situation in the long run.

What does your raise size tell a 'thinking' player. Usually the bigger the raise the smaller the hand but he would have history on you in this spot I would think. This is a fold in most cases with AQ and even AK some of the time IMO.

I think your math is off a bit ... how did you start with $550 and are only calling $330? Should be $380? So you are shoving $380 into around $1300, basically the same math. If you expect to share any cards with V3 then I fold out here. Was the tanking a smaller pair or AK? That is your dilemma here IMO and its probably never AQ for what would be a hard to come by chop.

The worst case is you are 10% against AA but you are never really under 20% against all other hands which makes this a very close call ... TO BREAK EVEN in the long run. You could be as good as 40% against 2 under-pairs as well if you have 2 live suits.

If they cover then you have no side pot to 'recover' chips from anyone .. you are in 3rd place here most of the time. But it's early right? How many buyins do you have? Will you get the opportunity to get these chips back, probably.

Lots of folks on both sides of fence more than likely, so it comes down to your 'gamble' itch and if it needs to be scratched. GL

This situation has no similarities to a cooler.

[ ] Sick title

Obviously call.

lol at you saying you absolutely know he has TT or JJ, pretty ridiculous you can put him on 2 hands, good trying tho.

In a loose game I would be waiting around for better hands than AQ, your 3bet pre will very likely get a call from at least one spot and you are only left with about 380 behind which is about the size of the pot. So if you cbet half pot (~200) you'll have 1/4 pot sized bet on the turn and if you get a caller on the flop you'll have almost no fold equity. This just seems like a bad play. I would prefer a flat pre, not opposed to a fold but that seems kinda nitty.

fwiw don't say you know a guy has TT JJ pre after he calls your 3bet, you aren't fooling anyone with your reads

lol, agree

I assume you called and lost.

Bad play. Math as worked earlier is close, but the gamboozler has folded. I should believe we fold as well.

1) would never c bet half pot here. Its a ship everytime

2) when you play with someone 15/hrs a week for 2 years you can put someone dead on a few hands after a big 3-bet and a cold call. We have a ton of history

3) I actually won the pot and still am debating how bad (if its even bad) of a play it is. I don't put stuff on here to get a pat on the back.

4) sorry for wrong math

What's the question? If you somehow have ranges down exactly it really is just a math problem which you should be doing on your own.


Is this your only buy in? If so ten fold. I not then so the math.

Such a marginal spot.

I like folding here for variance purposes in the long run.

It is a giant math problem though

It's actually a pretty short math problem if you have an equity calculator. Like less than 60 seconds.

Interestingly, if you're confident that villain's range is KK or QQ then this is a pretty clear call.

550 + 550 + 40 + 170 + 2 + 5 = 1317

We need to put in 380 to win 1317
1317:380 is ~3.466:1

You'd be ~3.05:1 vs. KK, JJ
You'd be ~2.83:1 vs. QQ, JJ

If his range also includes AK and AQ, then it's more complicated...
You'd be ~3.71:1 vs. AK, JJ
You'd be ~4.48:1 vs. AQ, JJ

And of course vs. AA you're screwed.
You'd be ~14.32 vs. AA, JJ

So your decision strongly depends on what you're ranging villain on.

See.

Thanks discgolf. That's exactly what I wanted help running through

Gl at the tables y'all

Seems pretty neutral EV. If you are properly rolled for the game, I think it's a call, as the future EV of having a 300+ BB stack in this game swings it in the favour of a call, imo.