I'm not sure if bluffs are 100% villain dependent. I mean, when we bluff rivers we are always calculating how often it needs to work to make a profit. A good bluff arises naturally from the math.

Our calling range pre should be pretty ace heavy and of course we have a blocker on board, so I think if calling this from the SB pre, we should already know we are floating some boards, otherwise we almost never have complete odds to call it pre

obviously, if it's a super nit that's never betting this flop without the goods, we can c/f, and it's ok to flop vs those guys because we expect to get paid off when we hit

but those people are going to lose eventually no matter what we do. Vs Someone who is good we can't just always give up on boards that hit our pf range.

The problem with this thinking is that we are just about never check raising the turn when we have showdown value on this board. The river in this hand is the most interesting street. That is, if we feel this is a floatable flop, our only play now with the 7 is c/c on the turn. Therefore, the turn plays itself and the question is if we should ever float the flop and how to play the river.

I actually think you can be completely polarized on the river. If leading, bet 70% of pot when bluffing and 50% when valueing, and the vast majority of ppl don't have enough experience on rivers to be able to tell the difference

Yes but it still is depends on Villain. Obv this line will work against some and not others.

I disagree about the bold part. It also has to do with how V's perceive our range. If we have folded the last 20 hands then maybe our range has a lot of A's but if we have played the last 20 hands then our range is pretty wide.

Again this is dependent on V

Making plays without using reads, IMO, is -EV. Sure the math might be "correct" but if we know V never folds then the math doesn't mean ****.

Why do you think this is the case? We should be raising turn often when we have 7x or 44 here.

You could also lead turn and lead river.

The idea that a river c/r is magically stronger than turn c/r + river bomb seems very odd to me on this board.

Granted, a read matters here on V a lot in terms of line selection, but I think you're making an odd assumption. Let's face it, the #1 thing driving their calling tendency here is the strength of their hand, not the street where we choose to raise.

This sums it up.

However if your a fish. I might lay down a big Ace to this river bet. Thinking you tagged along with A2s.

However this bluff wasn't thought out very well. To many cards that come on river that you can't bluff at, therefore you have donated $ on 2 streets For nothing.

Bluffing this V is good if he can fold AJ/AQ and worse, and terrible if he can't.

Mikko: I think you misread the board because A2 is behind A5+.

Didnt read the thread but a lot of villians check back one pair. Risky to check the river.

Semi grunch:

Not enough info on villain to know but in general heroic stack size three street bluffs should be an almost nonexistent part of your win rate.

It looks a lot more like premeditatd button clicking to me than anything else.

Yeah, that's true, just wonder if we c/r with an Ace? But then again, we push him off aces sometimes so it hardly matters. I think you might be right that c/r turn is better than c/c turn then bet river because more FE and bombing turns is a great way to get him to stop raising your blinds.

If the goal is to c/r river it is because we think villain will bet/bet/bet with an ace but fold like a little girl when we raise with even AJ/AQ

But, you know, that implies we have a read.

I do think a c/r on the turn may be more effective but I think it says bluff fairly often most villains don't think your floating 2 streets with air oop. wouldn't u agree? everyone seems to believe that my range is saying to villain that i have 75% bluffs 25% nuts.. making it a bad easy to pick off bluff but I would have to disagree with my perceived range give my line oop it's pretty 2009 to just float someone simple to ship it in on them to try and get them to fold.

my grammar is pretty horrid right now I'm driving and 2+2ing

Ok, so your plan is to float 2 streets and then do the same?

What are you doing when he checks back river besides losing?

That's the worst part of the line, IMO, he has to bet river for you to ever gain any value.

It reads like you just button clicked and didn't really plan.

Yeah, I mean it was very fortunate that he bet the river and obviously, that's the most important part of the "reads" equation. As a standard, it's probably not profitable at all to c/r river because people don't bet it enough. Also, one person said bluffing is 100% read dependent, and I said it was part of the math. We are both right. We can arrive at this turn purely by math because it says we have to float from the SB some of the time and try to win with T-high because we don't have direct odds to play it pre otherwise. Floating ace high flops has to be part of the equation just to protect our pf aces too.

right well I'm pretty sure every time we check intending to check raise we never know that villain is going to bet when we check.. so I'm not sure how that's a factor.. I felt he has a lot of bluffs and value hands that he's turning into bluffs in his range there for checking behind is usually a loss for him as well.

My point is this line makes much more sense in position where we can still bluff river.

OOP, planning to c/r turn or lead river (if turn checks through) is a better default bluff line unless you have a very strong read.

IMO, he's bluffing a huge % of the time on the turn, so it's probably best to try and win there rather than waiting til river. I don't think a lot of ppl are going to throw three barrels out there. He's checking back a pair of aces on the river always, sometimes folding them to a turn c/r, but usually has squadoosh if he's a random player. You need to have reads that he bets that river. Getting into the spot on the turn is fine and having a plan to steal is even better.

I agree a c/r turn and lead river is probably better but then is this a good way to use this line with a nut hand here? since everyone is saying it looks super bluffy and he's never folding

3 pair beats 2 pair!!! IDO

My bad

Once he bet that river it's ok, but you got ridiculously lucky that he bet in the first place. It's a pretty bad spot to triple barrel when people call down with ace whatever all the time so even a random player with air checks back river a lot and will win with like king high. If that happens your image is totally shot by the way. Most players are also showdown monkeys and it's very rare that someone will valuebet thin in this spot. A lot of weak aces check back, and many players even check ak here because they are scared of getting check raised off of their hand on the river and they won't be able to fold if that happens so they just knuckle back. Same goes for thinking he is turning a showdown hand into a bluff. Vs a random I think it's a big mistake consider that's in their playbook unless you have evidence. Any other bluff line is better than this line for that reason. You are sitting on the river with 10 high and you checked. Chk/raise turn is better and barrel river you can fold out a lot of aces that would have always checked back river. People say it has to work more that 50% of the time but it's even way way more than that because most of the time you CAN'T EVEN BLUFF b/c he checks back. So it's mute. Once he bets river I think it's fine because he is polarized to air/and nut hands and most of the range he's repping check back river. And if he's capable or is valuebetting thin he is probably also good enough to find a fold. But it's absurd to expect this perfect storm from some random. This only works vs good players who value bet thin and brainless barrel monkeys.

If Villain is a semi-aggro or aggro reg, then I like the OOP flop float. A74r is a good flop for Villain to c-bet bluff with a lot of his air, so we should show a profit by check/calling OOP as a float (with the intention of bluffing river if turn goes check/check and/or CR bluffing turn if Villain is a double barrel monkey).

I think the turn check/call is horrendous. It is much better to CR bluff turn than check/calling. Why? Very few live Villains will triple barrel bluff at all. If Villain is double barreling the turn, he will often just check back the river and give up on his bluff. Just as importantly, there are very few live Villains who will thin value bet river with Ax. Therefore, there is very little chance that Villain is going to bet the river for us to go for a river CR. So, check/calling turn to set up a river CR bluff is lighting money on fire when KQ-high checks back river so often. Just CR bluff the turn if you think he is double barreling often.

As played to the river, I think that that the CR itself becomes profitable after Villain bets the river, but I think you will only get a bet from Villain about 15%-25% of the time.

In any case, I would check/call flop. Then, I would CR or check/fold turn depending on Villain tendencies and live reads. Definitely think this turn check/call is horrible.

i agree well said. hmm im not sure if most villains are check giving up on the river in position with their air. there is no draw on this board its dryer than dry my c/c c/c pretty much says i have something im either trapping you or im holding on until the river to see what you do. im almost positive villain is never auto thinking that i just floated two streets with some random two cards just to ship the river.. its just a weird line i took.. i find it hard to pick it apart it has pros and cons and obviously could have been played a million different ways

You could have missed 65 OESD. So, you do have draws in your range.

similarly in the ballpark 35 double belly got there.

If you can't see why check/calling the turn is horrendous, then we can't help you.

Live players have low triple barrel frequencies. Period. If you don't want to take my word for it, go play 10k+ hours of live NLHE, and then get back to me then.