Playing 2/5 NL, live home game.

Villain is super fishy Asian college student. Aggro preflop, but passive and *huge* calling station post. Already have the following hand history with him:

Mega Fish (MP, effective stack, $580): Raises to $25.
Hero (BT), AQ: Raises to $50.
MF: Calls.

Flop ($100 after rake): A 9 7

MF: Checks.
Hero: Bets $60.
MF: Raises to $140.
Hero: Ships for $530.
MF: Briefly tanks before calling with KQ.

Other than the check-raise here, I haven't seen him get out of line postflop. Have seen him slow-play a couple monsters to the river.

/ / /

Hand I'm actually interested in:

MF (UTG+1, effective stack, $500): Raises to $25.
MP: Calls.
Hero (BB), A J: Calls.

Flop ($70 after rake): A K 7

Hero: Donks for $50.
MF: Calls.
MP: Folds.

Turn ($170): 7

Hero: Checks.
MF: Checks.

River ($170): J

Hero: Bets $90.
MF: Raises to $270.
Hero: Tanks briefly, figures that Mega Fish is, well, super-fishy and even though he's also pretty passive/stationy/capable of slow-playing post-flop, the price (exactly 3:1) is too good to pass up. Calls.

MF: Flips over Q T.

Thoughts? Given how super-fishy/stationy MF is (calling 70% pot with a naked gutshot on the flop really didn't surprise me at this point), should I have led the turn? Also, is it ever okay to fold the river here? I knew the kid was nuts, but I just got a bad feeling about it -- he really didn't seem to have a river bluff raise in his arsenal . . .

Why did you check the turn? It's awful.

Because there are no worse value hands villain calls with? Is he calling again with Kx? What if he raises do we stack off?

Think it's easy check turn call all river bets and b/f if checked to. is he really check raising river to get you off a chop? I don't think so.

You really butchered this one. Why not squeeze pre to $75 to isolate.

Why not bet pot size flop and shove turn.

You lose value by checking turn. He called with KQo before

He called $400 with K high on an A high board and you think he's not calling turn with worse?

Bet turn, snap call river, reload if beat.

LOL, so much this.

'well he called flop shove with total air but he can't call a turn cbet with 2nd pair' - does not compute.

Any time a fish, let alone a mega fish, raises the river, you snap fold.

just lol
re basically reps exactly one hand, and this villain is certainly capable of spazzing out and severe button clicking.

barring a very strong life tell, this is never a fold

That's the thing. In the cold light of day, I think everyone above is right -- "pot control" on the turn was a really dumb idea.

But, as played, I did have a strong live read that I was beat. I remember thinking that his range was 7x that randomly turned trips, QT, and spaz.

I'm still not sure if the spaz is 25%. Meh . . .

He can easily have any 7. Expect to see a lot of K7/J7 in addition to the A7.

But that's all besides the point. When was the last time you saw a big river raise by a terrible player who didn't have a strong hand?

When was the last time you saw someone call $400 shove with K high on an A high board? Don't overthink this - the fish certainly isn't.

He might have misread his hand or the board, it's hard to say for certain wtf compelled him to call with K high. He might have had a brain fart and thought he had AK or KQ instead.

I'm having a hard time believing you guys would happily call river raises by weak players and expect it to be a profitable move. Don't make the amateur mistake of seeing just one showdown hand and crystallizing your impression of the villain.

I agree with Hardball about folding this river. Fish has all the 7x in his range and there's a big difference between making an atrocious flop call and making a bluffy river raise. Not sure it's a snap fold, I think I sigh fold it though.

Turn is a lol easy bet.