AA and AK aren't checking flop.

Meh preflop, personally folsing to the 3bet.

Really bad river shove with right result. I'm assuming he called and beat ace-high.

It's ok though. I did a similarly horrific bluff the other day and binked my straight on the river.

Against a "solid" ABC player at the 1/2nl level, I expect him to fold all of his Kx and Qx one pair hands near 100% of the time. I expect him to make an emotional call with 2 pair hands probably 75% of the time and call you with AA or sets near 100% of the time.

You described V as "solid" and so his 3-betting range from the blinds is exclusively JJ+, AK
Based on the way the hand played out I think V has a ******edly played set or AK majority of the time.

Unfortunately for you, at this level, I think he will 100% call you believing that he is 100% beat. The only hand in his range that he folds to you is JJ. Everything else I think he makes an emotional call down.

As far as bluffing. The best times to bluff at LLSNL are vs villains that have demonstrated they fold to pressure (especially villains that say, "I know I got you beat but I'm gonna wait for a better spot") and villains that show weakness. Since V 3-bet you pre, he isn't weak despite his flop check (Villains at this level love to check their monsters when they are OOP)

Under the right circumstances this could be a good bluff. But as played, I don't think so. His range is too strong and I suspect he will call believing he is beat simply because his hand is strong.

Also, it's my opinion that his calling in this spot will have less to do with how your line "looks" and more to do with just how strong V's hand is. I mean, V is never calling you hear with TT or 99 simply because your line may look FOS. Villains at this level just don't have it in them to make those sorts of calls. They only make those sorts of calls when they read you as FOS AND they have a strong hand like TPGK+. Then they like to talk tough and make the call, but they rarely make the call with underpairs.

Note: the exception is when they read you specifically for "AK", then they can/will call you down fairly light on non-Ace and non-King boards

Lastly, FOLD PREFLOP!!!! Raising is fine, but once he 3-bets you need to fold

I'm going to go in a different direction and just post for a moment on bluffing in general. Poker players love to make the huge bet bluff. The reason is that almost every poker player was attracted to the game because of the gambling aspect of it. Huge bluffs get the adrenaline going and give us the gambling buzz. Any time you feed an addiction, alarm bells should be going off in your head.

The media also feeds the myth that a great bluff is a big bluff. You never see Norman Chad on TV commenting on a cbet. So they encourage you to be like these people who make it on TV.

Ed Miller wrote that the success of a bluff is inverse proportional to the size of the pot. The smaller the pot, the more likely you are to win it. This is why cbetting is one of the most effective bluffs, even today. You make a 3BB raise pf, get one caller and there is 7BB in the pot. On the flop, you bet 4BB. The villain has nothing. He knows there's a good chance you have nothing either, but the pot is small and not worth the effort to chase. He lets you have it.

The next requirement is leverage, which Howard Lederer wrote about. Bluffs are more successful on early streets with larger stacks. You make that 4BB cbet. The villain has to decide, "Yeah, I call this, but if he bets the turn and river too, is this really worth having to call 34BB to find out if he's bluffing?"

Harrington pointed out that a bluff has to tell a good consistent story. If you raised pf and bet the flop and turn, a villain isn't going to believe you now hit your back door FD on the river. He also pointed out that your bluffs should be rare. He suggested every 40 hands or so. As Bobby Hoff put it, it depends on your image. If your image is great, you can increase your bluff frequency. If your image is bad, you shouldn't be bluffing at all.

I'd also add as others did that you need to be doing a great job of hand reading and be playing one level above your opponent. If he's just playing his cards, you need to know where his threshold is for folding. For many of these players, TP is the break point. If they have TP, they aren't folding. If someone is thinking about your hand, you have to represent a bigger one.

The reality is as Digger the Dog posted years ago, "most of my bluffs are spew." The conditions are rarely good for a bluff on the river. Which is why value betting on the river is one of the most important aspects of winning in LLSNL.

Well you'll have to wait 12 months to see if you win, but I nominate this for the post of the year in the bluffing category.

You have to take into account that your line looks very weird/weak also. What hands are you trying to rep when you check back, call, than shove for 2x pot? This line makes zero sense. If I was in Vs spots I would probably be calling very light, QJ QT JJ TT 99. I think V can be taking this line with a hand like AQ.


You prolly don't want to hear this, but obv it's a fold pre. You say V isn't getting out of line and playing solid poker, so why call a 3bet with a weak ace?

Calling pre was horrible.

The bluff makes zero sense, your story doesnt hold water at all, however...

The overbet should win here most of the time on the river simply due to the fact the villain cannot be strong at all. You ran into what I call a drooler.

But in the future, plan your bluffs so that they are credible.

I think you got snapped by AQs or JJ. (emphasis on AQs)