Quote:
Originally Posted by Corto Montez
I might go slightly more pre-flop, although without a detailed breakdown of the table pre-flop dynamics I can't really give a definitive answer here, since getting 4 callers might just be variance.
Given that V tends to call down light the flop raise is good. I'd probably raise to about $60 given stack sizes so that we can shove pretty much any turn, although given how dry the board is the raise size isn't terrible (but it increases the likely hood of our action being killed).
On the turn, it's a shove/fold spot. There aren't really any draws he can have here, although given he's playing such a wide range pre-flop he can have a lot of A7/AJ hands here. As such, we need to determine how often, if at all he's bluffing/spewing here.
Factors in favour of shipping:
-V is probably stuck
-V tank calling flop discounts AJ from his range
-Hero has been seen squeezing before
Factors in favour of folding:
-V tends to be stationy as opposed to bluffy/spewy
-Hero has been seen to call light
-Most live Vs love to 'put hero on AK'
-V flop tank-call can often be hollywooding with a set/2P, and discounts other Jx hands from his range
-Flop is so dry such that V can't really have many draws to semi-bluff
-C/c flop, donk turn line is very strong usually
Overall, I think it's a fold given the action, although if checked to on the turn I'm betting about $55 and shoving river.
An £8/£9 raise would generally get one or two callers, to get 4 was an anomaly. The table was generally very loose pre flop and rarely saw more than heads us action on all but the wettest of boards. I was probably the shortest stack, average was £250+ so it was playing rather deep.
In hindsight I don't particularly like my sizing pf/f, especially given I'd be OOP vs all but one villian. I'd rather have gone to £10 pre as it'd have likely gotten the same amount of callers and just gotten slightly more money into the pot. On the flop I'd rather have raised to £55-60 as with the raise made it left a very awkward slightly >1SPR making shoving nearly any turn as I'd planned much more difficult.
Although I'm only beaten by the absolute top of his range looking back I don't see him taking this line with anything I beat, basically Jx and QQ, and it'd be such a poor spot to bluff and given villains image a bluff here seems highly unlikely given how dry the board was.
Cheers for the feedback.
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