1/2 live 8 handed

Hero - 19 year old, the old nits perceives as agro but playing pretty standard tag
Villain - to Hero's direct left, pro grinder who plays at this same card room almost every day. We shoot the **** every time we play together and talk through hands and stuff. Doesn't know a lot about GTO or modern strategy but very good live player and normally the best player in the room every time he plays (except when im there )

Hand

Villain is the effective stack with 250

Hero opens KQo to 15 in the LJ, Villain and BB call

Flop comes KQTr, checks to hero and bets 20 into 45 (I think this should have been more like 30-35 as the BB calls very inelastically). Only Villain Calls

Turn 8 creating a flush draw, Hero bets 45 and villain takes about 10 seconds before raising to 120. Hero?

A bunch of combos are ahead (AJ/J9s/TT). Hard to flop a straight, still given his descript, I'd let this one go.

If u can put him on AXs/KTs/QTs/JXs, maybe enough to call. I'd still fold.

Shovel it in

What would he do with AJo and AJs preflop here?

I'm not inclined to fold because he reps thin. I think with a set he raises flop, J9s he may not flat pre and it's not many combos. AJ is the concern. Personally I would be threebetting AJo and AJs in his spot and I find it hard to imagine an experienced player flatting AJo here, but who knows with live pros. Anyway I suspect he has some draw which was improved by the turn and the raise is a semibluff. I have low confidence in that because this seems like a dubious spot to bluff as you'll have a lot of crushing hands. If you think he for sure flats all his AJ pre in this spot then I'm folding.

I like a hero fold since this is never done with a worse hand. I'm basing this one entirely on experience.

signed up here at age 16 - impressive.

I need to know he has a decent level of LAG in his game to not fold here.

Your sizing makes this a bit more difficult, but I still fold pretty effortlessly.

1/2 live grinder is probably a nut-peddler. Furthermore, he called 7.5x pre, so he always has at least a pair+SD hand when he calls the flop. In order to continue facing his turn raise, you need him be turning hands like QJ into a bluff A LOT to counterweight the 23 combos of AJ, J9s, and TT in his range.

Imo you have the bigger leak than a guy calling with AJ here.

Interesting responses, a couple of comments on villain

- he calls J9s pre for sure, and folds all offsuit combos

- I think hes flatting AJ but its close (let's give him 50% of both suited and offsuit combos)

- He would most likely 3 bet TT but i suppose its possible he flats (let's give him 2 combos)

- I doubt he'd raise the turn with QJs unless it was the flush suit so 1 combo there

Using those, I'd say the rest of his turn range looks something like KQs (2 combos), KTs (2 combos), maybe QTs (2 combos), and for bluffs probably AX of the flush suit (A9, maybe AT, maybe wheel aces, so we'll give him 3 combos)

So he has ~12 combos of straights and 2 combos of sets (both of which we're obviously behind, but have like 10% equity against), 6 combos of 2 pair which we crush, and ~3 combos of flush draws which we have like 80% equity against.

Since we're basically all in on the turn (not folding any rivers), we need 75/325 or 23.1% equity to make this call profitable, so I think we kinda have to go with it.

Anyone have a problem with my logic?

In the moment I didnt think about the possibility of him having QJ or the A-high flush draw, and I folded, and he showed KQ.

If you're solid on him having AJ and J9s preflop a lot here, then the problem is that everything else is speculation. You're giving him lower two pairs but I don't think he ever has that, I think he raises them OTF. We also don't know whether he ever actually raises flush combos, your line looks pretty strong. The odds make it difficult to fold but I think it's pretty close.

Edit: Only just read the results. I guess he can have two pair combos, but might be more inclined to raise with QT/KT, idk.

Your pot odds calculation is wrong. Treating his raise like an all-in, pot is

15+15+15+20+20+45+215=345

and it costs you

250-15-20-45=170

So you're getting almost exactly 2:1 and need 33% equity.

What’s going on that we open to 15 in a 1/2 game?

Given that we open to 15 I doubt AJ is going to 3bet.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That, I guess.

I think it’s close. I don’t think he has worse two pair for value and I don’t think he’s doing very much bluffing on this texture given the texture and the line you have taken. If he has all the QJ as bluffs, and we lose to all the AJ and the J9s, then we have about 30% equity. Obviously he doesn’t bluff all 8 QJ combos, but he might have some other bluffs.

I probably find a fold but could really go either way.

May I ask why 3 betting AJo or AJs a late position open is a leak? I would play it both ways. I’d be more inclined to 3B if I’m isolating a donkey or if the late position raiser gives me reason to suspect he’s opening too light.

The open is not from late position. It's from the LJ. 6max players would call that UTG lol.

So let's consider the fact that this is a 7.5x open and what kind of strength the opener needs to have. The opener is risking 7.5 to win 1.5 with five players behind. There is around a 20% chance someone wakes up with AQ+,TT+ (it's more if you have no blockers like 89s). Assume on average that the opener loses his 7.5x when someone holds one of these hands and he holds a weaker hand. So that's already a loss of 7.5(0.2)=1.5. Now if everyone just folded everything weaker, then the opener has offsetting wins of 1.5(0.8)=1.2, creating a net EV of -0.3bb. Now in reality they will call worse than AQ+,TT+, but you will usually be oop when you get called, so you're gonna need a strong hand to show a profit playing oop in a low SPR pot. A decent range for opening LJ with this sizing would therefore be AJ+, KQ, 88+, ATs, KQs, KJs, QJs.

So now imagine you 3b in the HJ with AJ to 20x and let's say the opener folds everything except JJ+, AK, and with these hands he jams. Then he's continuing with 30 combos and folding 68 combos. If this were headsup, your play is almost exactly breakeven in a rakeless situation. However,

(1) There are still four players behind that can wake up with JJ+/AK themselves.

(2) This assumes your 2p2er opponent is not adjusting for your ridic wide 3bing range and jamming TT and AQ.

I should add that it's still bad to 3b AJo in the HJ facing a more normal raise size from a skilled opponent. It makes your 3b range really weak unless you take out other, better bluffs like suited wheel Aces.

this is a really gross spot imo.

the fact that he is a live pro, grinding $1/2, and doesnt know much about GTO tells me that he kind of plays a straight forward, TAG, exploitative game. and i just dont really think he has bluffs here ever. and does he really x/r turn with KT and/or flat flop with KTs?

im not saying i do it in game, but i think he shows up here with a straight an awful lot of the time. he probably doesnt flat J9s preflop, but AJs definitely. such a narrow range though. but our range is also uncapped, we have all the sets and all the straights as well (AJ for sure, J9s depending on if you open that hand).

i think folding is good here, but its pretty gross and in-game i dont think i fold all that often.

i think calling and then calling river is better than shoving over his raise on the turn though. just imo.