1/2 live

Villain is eff stack with ~$300

Villain is very loose. Likes to do this thing where he pretends hes going to shove when you're about to bet. Stacks his chips up and puts his hands on them like hes going to push them forward. Then when you bet he tanks. Usually it's because he has a decent hand, but not amazing hand, and wants to scare you into not putting more pressure on him. Calls way too much preflop and keeps getting mad I open raise a lot instead of limp but calls anyway.

Folds to hero on btn
Hero ATcc
Hero raise to $10
Sb folds, BB again gets mad I raised but calls

Flop ($21) As8c9s
Checks to hero, hero bets $12, villain calls

Turn ($45) 7c
Checks to hero, hero bets $25, villain gets mad and raises to $50. While hero is in the tank villain does his usual acting like hes ready to shove.

Hero?

I'm happy to call in position. 3-betting is an overplay. I'd size up turn.

Raising just folds out his worse hands like middling pairs, worse flush draws and maybe even worse Ax’s. Basically only get called by 2ps and sets.

I would call turn and evaluate river in position.

Pure player read situation. You may have tilted villain into doing something stupid but he may also have a big hand. This is one of those judgement calls that separate mediocre lags from good ones. The good ones can read people and make the right shove/call/fold decisions.

In this specific case you can't fold. Even if clubs are your only outs you are getting straight odds to chase. Call and evaluate on the river.

Agree. Agree. Agree.

Don't push a tilter around. He'll fold or show you the nuts. Let him make the mistakes.

Add: You are behind A9 - A7, ahead of A6 - A2. If you raise, he'll probably fold the hands you are beating and call or rr the better hands. Why do that?

Would your shove be as a bluff or for value? You say his tell means he has a decent but not amazing hand. What is that on this board? Ax? 2 Pair+? Pair + straight draw? If you think his tell means that your AT is good, then I guess a shove is OK, even though you might be better off just calling in position and playing a river.

Although the types of hands that aren't thrilled with this board are all the 98/97/87 combos that know they are either up against a better hand or big draw if you jam. For a bluff shove to be good here we really want him to have all these hands and at least consider folding them to our jam.

Your very specific tell aside, generally when someone check/raises the turn they have something they like, and 1/2 villains don't seem to like folding in these spots. I'm really happy just calling and folding to a big bet on a blank river.

I put him on some kind of 2 pair or maybe a weaker ace (leaning a lot more toward 2 pair because i don't think he's raising A2-A6). Possibly a straight but unlikely since we block some JT and I'm not sure he calls the flop with a gutshot. Odds are he doesn't have a set because I think he would have raised the flop with how connected the flop was. I also don't think he's raising a spade or club draw. I think if he had a nutted hand like a straight or set he wouldn't have done his "im going to shove if you raise" act.

I was thinking of it more as a semi-bluff in a way. I think we are behind here more times than not.. but we have plenty of equity to win the hand if behind, and probably some fold equity. If we can just take it down here that's great. If he has 78/79/89 we still have 50% equity against him. So applying max pressure can get him to fold better hands. It can fold out worse hands of course but those hands likely aren't betting the river as well, so if we hit one of our draws we aren't getting paid anyway.

On the river (if we just call the turn) any J, 6, T, A, spade, club, or paired board that isn't one of his 2pair would likely slow him down big time if he has a weaker holding we are ahead of on the turn. On the turn if he's ahead and calls, we aren't in the worst shape considering we have outs to the nut flush, 2nd nut straight, and possibly trips/2pair. If he's behind and calls, that's obviously great. And if he folds he either folded something he wouldn't want to put money in on the river with (like A2-A6) unless he improved (which likely makes us lose) or a hand we are behind like 2 pair.. which is good to get him to fold.

You yourself are putting him on 2 pair so why would you even entertain raising the turn?

Your hand looks exactly like AT-AK. Take the very nice odds he gave you to draw to the nuts and crack his hand. You can always miss the flush and river goes check check anyway.

If we think we can get villain to fold a better hand why shouldn't we do it?

Because V is never in a million years folding 2 pair here. There is even less likely of a chance someone who is "mad" will ever fold a strong hand. I dont think this guy would fold AJ in this spot so if you raised you are never folding out a better hand. This is one of those valuebluff spots where you have no idea why you're raising which is not a good move to make.

Here is a simple lesson in implied odds. If V has a 2p+ hand and is never folding he just said "here is a $25 bet to win $350". I arrive at this number because after the turn minraise he still has 230ish behind and there is 120 already in the pot. Its a very easy call and the only tough decision in this hand will be on the river if he bets out and you dont improve.

You dont need to post results. If you want other honest opinions you should delete that. Your hand looks like Ax because the combos of those hands vastly outweigh any other holdings on this board and when someone raises pre and fires twice on a A high board his most likely holding is an A. It doesnt mean you 100% have to have one.

I am not going to make specific comments on what V had because I think you should delete all of that and let the conversation continue.

Ty OP. Dont take analysis as a personal attack.

Nooo it's no problem, I never take analysis as a personal attack sorry if it seemed that way. I just figured it had been discussed enough to post results but you're right it will probably make newer answers more results oriented than honest. I always really appreciate the input. I just always try to state my thought process and try to defend it in the way I see it so people can pick it apart if it's wrong and I can learn from it.

You have a flush draw, OESD and a pair of aces. You're getting about 5-1 on a call here. Even against a made straight, you're getting the right odds just to draw to the flush, with implied odds to boot.

Raising probably will only get called if you're behind, and it's not likely that V will fold a better hand than AT, so let's just call and see the river. V will not know if you're on a flush draw, OESD, or only have a pair of aces. So there a real good chance that he won't fold two pair or a set even you make your straight or your flush. You're playing your hand like you have a pair of aces and calling the raise would indicate that you're playing pot control with your aces.

I"m just calling, but I actually don't hate a raise. People saying a raise only gets called by bigger hands are right, but it could also fold out AK, AQ, and AJ. Regardless though, your hand has showdown value, and you have a huge draw, so just call and reevaluate.

I didn’t notice we had the NFD, also. It’s hard to call 3-betting an overplay, then, but I’m still happy to just call and play rivers. I don’t expect a lot of fold equity except against hands that are drawing dead or close.

My question is, if we are just calling here, why is the optimal play sometimes to raise when you flop a pair + flush draw or a pair + straight draw?

Is this different because it's on the turn?

Don’t shove. Keep his tilt hands in the mix here. Shoving folds out no better and doesn’t get called by much worse. And you do have top pair, you may have the best hand.

Or he has the JT straight and you’re at 9 scoop and 2 chop outs. Not exactly what I wanna be pushing it in with.


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This is different for numerous reasons

1) there’s one card to come, not two, so our equity when we get it in is worse
2) ranges are stronger: on the flop our opponent has their entire preflop range. On the turn they have the range of hands from preflop that get past the flop
3) flopped straights aren’t common. But by the turn, there’s usually straights available. On this board (987), even with the T in your hand, a full 40 possible card combos of 1035 that our opponent can have (and that’s assuming he plays blind til the turn) are straights. So once you whittle our nonsense like 32o, you can see that he has a good deal of straights. Add in sets and two pairs and you’d see that there’s a lot of ways we get in bad here.

Essentially, on the flop with TP + NFD, we are rarely crushed and sometimes crushing when the money goes in. On the turn, we are often crushed when the money goes in. We also have far less chance of getting a fold. We also have a bit of showdown value, so playing that as a bluff is almost always a bad idea, unless you’re incredibly advanced (reference a BR challenge video of Doug Polk where he xr all in as a bluff on like KQJ and stuff with KT).


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Calls, and folds the river without improvement.