Ok, so There is this guy at the table named crazy joe... he is well... crazy. lol However, he knows what he's doing and is far from a fish. Here is how the hand played out.
Starting stacks/position (9 handed at table)
Hero (UTG):163 (in the game for 400)
Crazy Joe (Hijack): 600 (in the game for 500)
Hero raises to 12 (standard is 4x+1 BB per limper in this game) with AsKs
MP1: calls
Mp2: calls
folds to crazy joe and he raises to 62
folds back around to hero
My question is as follows which of the three scenarios do you follow in this spot?
1) 4 bet ship for 100 more
2) Flat then ship any flop
3) Fold
Personally I don't think that 3 is an option but could be persuaded here, and I don't think that we can just flat then fold to an 'unfavorable' flop because that is simply waaaay too weak and it's for too much of our stack.
Your thoughts?
Last edited by grind55; 05-07-2010 at 04:33 AM.
Reason: I forgot to subscribe.
That one. Clearly you have tremendous equity against his range and don't mind playing for stacks with MUCH the best of it. But there's enough of his range with good equity that you'd like to make him play a guessing game and possibly make a bad fold too.
That one. Clearly you have tremendous equity against his range and don't mind playing for stacks with MUCH the best of it. But there's enough of his range with good equity that you'd like to make him play a guessing game and possibly make a bad fold too.
Longer analysis to follow.
This is similar logic to what I was thinking. I'm interested in hearing the longer version here.
If there wasn't dead money thanks to MP's calling then probably you can think about folding if V is VERY TIGHT. But since you are not deep at all (in fact less than 100bb's) and you named V "crazy joe" which makes this a pretty trivial shove.
Ok, so There is this guy at the table named crazy joe... he is well... crazy. lol However, he knows what he's doing and is far from a fish. Here is how the hand played out.
Starting stacks/position (9 handed at table)
Hero (UTG):163 (in the game for 400)
Crazy Joe (Hijack): 600 (in the game for 500)
Hero raises to 12 (standard is 4x+1 BB per limper in this game) with AsKs
MP1: calls
Mp2: calls
folds to crazy joe and he raises to 62
folds back around to hero
My question is as follows which of the three scenarios do you follow in this spot?
1) 4 bet ship for 100 more
2) Flat then ship any flop
3) Fold
Personally I don't think that 3 is an option but could be persuaded here, and I don't think that we can just flat then fold to an 'unfavorable' flop because that is simply waaaay too weak and it's for too much of our stack.
Your thoughts?
What is your image? Has Crazy Joe seen how you have lost your stack?
I hesitate to say "ship it ASAP" because people often tend to overplay A/K in these situations. The problem is that you started with only 55 bbs and now you have 50 bbs facing a raise with a premium hand OOP.
You can't fold here because of (a) crazy joe's image and (b) your equity against any standard (non-crazy) player's range.
A stop-and-go move would be okay but only if you are jamming it all-in post-flop on a heavy majority of situations. Otherwise, you might as well just cash out and go home because you will quickly be a marked man for check-folding after calling off 1/3 of your stack pre like that.
Sorry to be so mysterious about it -- I really just needed some sleep before trying to run the numbers more precisely.
Broad point: Although AKs is a healthy favorite against his range and you don't mind getting it all in, there are enough specific hands in his range with decent equity against you that you really don't mind getting a fold.
So an all-in 4-bet offers him about 247:101 or about 2.44 : 1 to call. All he needs is 29% equity to call.
A 3-bettor with "Crazy" in his nickname might be 3-betting any pair, A9s+, AJ+, QJs+, KQ, JTs. Maybe that's a little wide, maybe not.
Worse aces are about 25%, so theoretically you'd like for him to call with exactly that part of his range and fold everything else, even weak hands racing with you like 44 and QJs. But you can't accomplish that.
By 4-betting, though, you put pressure on him to make the right decision with those marginal hands. If your 4-betting range is TT+, AK, AQs, then his marginal hands are getting just barely enough equity against your range to call (32.5% for 44, 31.7% for QJs). But he might fold mistakenly anyway not realizing the equity he has against your 4-betting range.
Back to our perspective, a 4-bet shove is much better than a stop-and-go because it might still get value from a weaker range that won't pay you off if it misses the flop, and it might fold out a range that's getting odds to call you but won't fold (and might be a favorite) on a favorable flop. Either way you profit.
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Another question is, what (if any) range are we flatting the 3-bet with? Just KK+?
Taking KK+ out of our 4-betting range may not be good against an observant reg like Crazy Joe, so unless he starts making a lot of incorrect folds to our other 4-bets we might better leave it in our 4-betting range here too.
Obvious shove all in. You are playing a 54xBB stack versus a guy described as "Crazy Joe", and there are 8 BB's worth of dead money in the pot from the two callers of $12. Hugely +EV to move all in here.
which makes this a pretty trivial shove.
