There was a $6 UTG straddle on, it folds to me in MP with KK, I raise to 25, OMCNES (old man coffee not English speaking) makes the call from the SB, UTG calls my raise.

OMCNES (stack 230) - Older Gentleman from Europe somewhere I would guess limps every hand, has not raised, always overbets when he has something on flop and turn. Will check call underpairs and draws. Easy to figure out where he is at.

UTG (stack 330) - Younger guy, maybe 30s. probably one of two guys at the table who can read hands and play decently. Has been raising PF a decent amount from a variety of position.

Flop J53r

OMCNES bets 100
UTG shoves all in
Back to me: I call.

I wanted some 2+2 help to see if the following ranges are correct given villains descriptions and a call was warrented. I did call so you can see the results below if you like:

I believe the ranges should look like this:
UTG straddle defense:22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,ATo+,K To+,QTo+,JTo
BB defense (OMCNES): 22+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KQo

Flop BB bets:JJ+,55,33,AJs,KJs,QJs,JTs,AJo. He check calls hands like TT, 99, 88 etc based on history. Always bets a J+

UTG shove range: JJ+,55,33,AJs,KJs,QJs,J9s+,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo
UTG not shoving air because he knows BB is not bluffing and he has my raise behind PF.

All in all with these ranges I got this:
OMCNES: 38%
Hero: 38%
UTG 1 24%.

Someone smarter then me at math can review, but given these ranges it looks like a clear call. Calling 330 to win (230 +330+79 = 639) 639. OMC never folding btw.


OMCNES flips over:



UTG flips over:




Board runs out 7, J.

OMCNES wins main, UTG wins side, I win.... nothing.... you win nothing kind Sir!

Please look at math and assumptions and let me know what you guys think. Fold/Call/borderline/not even close?

This is a fold based off the action in front of you and not nec the maths... I think your ranges are too wide on such a dry board...

And obv omc is not an omc of he is shipping top top on this board... More like fish who overplays tp...

"More like fish who overplays tp... "

Much better description.......

One thing that I thought about when I was looking at the hand is the fact that when we heavily weigh OMC's range toward AJ, KJ type hands, there aren't that many more combos of Jx that UTG can have. And based on your description I do expect OMC to have AJ pretty often.

When we give OMC AJ/KJ/QJ, we end up with two Js left. If we take away an ace for OMC's AJ then we have 6 available combos of AJ, 8 available combos of KJ. If we think he can flat pre with overpairs then we also have 6 combos of QQ, 1 combo of KK, 6 combos of AA. Of course we still have the 6 combos of 555 and 333 and 1 combo of JJJ (again, assuming OMC is leading out with AJ/KJ).

Big question is whether a competent player really ever loves AJ enough to raise an OMC's donk with a preflop raiser to act behind him. Like Odddhalo I do think it's a bit optimistic to weigh UTG toward Jx. I think it's more realistic to see this raise as overpairs and sets, i.e. we beat 6 combos, chop with 1 combo and lose to 13 combos (although if you discount AA to half of its combos we end up losing to 10 instead of 13).

wp

Why would UTG ever raise a set here tho?

This is why I don't post hand results until the end of the thread because it's easy to be results oriented. If I didn't know the results this is a tough lay down.

With a pocket pair it helps a ton to narrow down what Villain has. To make things simple, since we have KK, it reduces the chance or combos that they have:

KJ

Instead it increases the chances of JJ, AJ, QJ, QQ, AA, 55, and 33.

The board also very dry (no draws) and it's very likely a set, a strong J-X hand and Over-pair is pushing.

OMCNES's BET
I wouldn't overly discount these type of players his bet could mean he has a strong hand. Since he's straightforward it just means most of his range is J-X hands.

UTG ALL IN!
The UTG's all-in is very significant. Is UTG really pushing J-X especially if he thinks OMCNES has a Jack? Since UTG is decent hand reader he must be jamming/exploiting with a hand that is stronger OMCNES's range.

UTG might have - QQ, JJ, KK*, AA, maybe even 55, 33.

QQ- beat
KK- chop
AA,JJ,55,33- kill us

To beat UTG he has to be have exactly QQ's and the unlikely KK. Either player also could have a set of JJ's.

But I don't blame you, what makes this hand difficult is assuming UTG is not calling your PF raise with 55 or 33 and that OMCNES just has J-X (meaning lesser Jacks). UTG might simply have AA or QQ.

Yeah, I didn't look at how dry the flop is. With two streets to go pushing a set doesn't make a ton of sense, either. Tbh it's kind of a strange line that he's taken.

2 players have shown extreme strength on a relatively dry board I think we can fold an overpair here pretty comfortably.

I would have raised preflop to $35+, which is 10%+ of straddler's stack, and we can then easily stack off postflop HU. I guess it also depends on how loose vs tight your table is, but a $25 preflop raise isn't out-of-line in a non-straddled pot at my table, it is actually on the small side for a straddled pot.

Kinda a sucky situation now. We have a small SPR against both opponents (thanks in large part that we went 3way instead of HU), will most likely flop an overpair (which we've done), will have little wiggle room postflop, and yet offered decent odds to get stacked. Preflop set this up.

I probably also would have called although not felt great about it. I guess I simply would think that it's doubtful both players would play this dry flop so aggressively with monster hands (although I've leveled myself into this thinking before and been wrong).

GcluelessNLnoobG

there is just nothing about the action I'm looking at that screams that we are ahead. I think GG is right in the way we're looking at this regarding the way this is set up, although idk if I could ever really bring myself to raise 35 pre.

That, or the worst Nintendo game ever made