Drunk's range is so wide and enough of Unknown's value range includes hands drawing slim to the AA, I couldn't surrender my equity in that pot, the MW helps you only need ~30% and there are times you're at 80%.

Call with red JJ on Qxx8ddd. Let him bluff the river

I agree that there is positive equity in that, but assuming the guy has a small pair on the board, he probably has minimum 5 outs to outdraw. In addition, if an A or K hits the river and you think you will fold to an all in, there's probably now 11 cards that could hit / 25% of the deck, where you either lose the $150 pot to a river bluff or also stack off your other $225, in addition, if the guy hits. And, the dude might not actually shove a blank river with a small pair, maybe his over 2x pot bet was a put up or shut up bet to take down a small pot and now he's done. Depends on his history with two barrel bluffing turns and rivers on checked flops, but his hand could be disguised depending on the river.

If you got a read he's weak, I don't hate the $225 shove to take the now $150 pot (after the $60 call) 100% of the time, even if there is additional positive equity on the rest of your money going in on a bluffed river. 100% equity is hard to argue if you know it's good.

As for folding the Aces, can't do it if you play it that coy, not good. Asian lady has to think QQ or KK is good there, and those hands are more likely, with more possible combinations, than JJ. And based on her description, I think putting 13% of her stack in with a small pocket pair, pre flop, on the first hand she played, is extremely unlikely. Ignore the outcome from the spoiler, always call here, it's a long term game.

Exactly what I was thinking.

good for you to post the hand. bad players like to pretend botched hands didn't even happen. might as well learn from our mistakes.

I still disagree with most people itt who say as played we should still call. We have a lot of BB left and it seems only hands we beat from unknown are KK and QQ, and spewtard is capable of having AA beat here.

SPR is 3.3 against spewtard and 2.2 against Unknown, so the plan from the start should be to gii against either or both. Further, Hero underreps his hand on the flop and when action first reaches him on turn, so folding to aggression would be bad.

Hero was faced with $350 to win $800 decision. Given the above, this was a clear call. Hero's Aces are gonna get cracked now and then in this spot, but folding them here is quite costly. Depending whether on your level of pessimism on the ranges, I'd estimate calling EV to be +$275 to +$400.

That's a lot of bb's.

Unknown's range is basically KK, QQ, and JJ, so the fact that we beat 80% of it is a great reason to call.

In the "7 high" hand, there's no reason not to bet. You know you're 100% ahead based on stated read. Throw a small bet out & see if he'll spew.

I like shove on the JJ hand. Realizing equity.

AA hand, bet flop, as played call turn shove. Not happily, but has to be done.

i agree. that being said, its a lot easier for us to sit back and be critical and say he should have made the call, because 1)we weren't under ther stress of it being our money and 2)not under any sort of time constraint

Love our seat position, nice.

Is spewtard going to call any non crazy raise? Would raising to $60 be crazy? Cuz that's what I'd like to 3bet to in order to prevent ~setmining being profitable. The problem with the raise to $37 is that we're giving him 14+ implied odds and yet will be creating a SPR of 5 where we're basically always going to have to stack off; if I'm going to have to stack off, I'd rather not give good implied odds. The other option would be to flat and play an SPR 20 pot OOP and just check/call for a decent win, although against a guy who can overbomb (and thus possibly play for stacks this deep) I'm not in love with that (ETA: just realize the SB flatted between us, so I would hate the flatting option even more).

Anyoo, SPR is 3.3 at this point and we's got an overpair on a drawy board. I'd grit my teeth, pot the flop to shove the turn, and never fold. I don't mind the FPS to get spewtard to do his thing, but I'm not sure I'm in love with it in a 3way 3bet pot.

Hand gets weird after that but we're sorta unrepped. I think we have to call.

GimoG