Hi. So here's a hand that we had an argument about. 1/2 nl. I'm sitting at a beautiful table full of fish. Nobody 3-bets, no regs, all good. I'm on sb and there are 2 callers from late positions. $215 effective. I make it $15 to go. Bb calls, 2 limpers call. Flop is: Q54 ($60). I bet $40, late position makes it $200 and it's on me. $160 more. He has 37. Is his reraise against my range profitable? I believe it's 50/50 at best and therefore it's not. I specifically won't tell you my hand. Please tell me if villain played good on the flop or not. My image: tight. His image: lose passive, plays every hand.

How deep? If hes allin, then yes its profitable imo. If he has like $400 total then its pretty bad. Pre was horrendous too but whatever

Given your range and image it's not terrible. He's flipping against most of it.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Assuming not hugenormous stacks behind, Villain's raise is *clearly* profitable. First, there's dead money in the pot, so even in times he ends up getting it in with you in 50/50 type situations, the dead money in the pot makes this incredibly profitable for him. Secondly, he has FE against hands that he is 50/50 with (i.e. you're not always going to call it off with JJ-), and you're also going to easily fold AK/etc. (which he is a slight fave over but with FE makes him a massive fave).

Gpreflopislol,butpostflopheplayeditfine,imoG

Sorry. Effective stack added - $215.

Hard to say for certain without seeing stack sizes, but generally this is a great spot to raise. Best case scenario is that you fold, and raiser takes down the pot with 7-high, so that's great. You're definitely folding your big aces, other than AQ and Acxc. You're probably folding pocket pairs between QQ and 55. Assume you call with AQ and KQ, but you're not loving it.

If you call with a range of QQ+, AQ, KQ AKCc and AJcc, V still has 44% equity so can't really be making a mistake even if the gets called. The more suited ace combos you have, the more non club combos you have that whiffed and will fold.

Basically, V gets you to fold a ton of hands that have very good equity (TT with one club has 57.4% equity and AK with one club has like 45% equity) and when you call V is never doing badly unless you have exactly QQ.

Edit - Just saw that his raise basically puts you all in. I like it even more now, because the one reason not to raise is if he would have good IO with deep stacks and position on later streets. That's not the case if you're all in. Also prevents you from trying to rebluff with a hand he wants you to fold.

It's definitely profitable as you should be folding a lot of your hands that are currently ahead of him, and he's usually flipping when called.

Profitable

It's not possible to say how he's doing against your range unless you state what you raise in SB vs. 2 limpers and what you cbet on this board vs. 4 players.

But why don't you guys think that if I'm tight AND raise from sb, I might have QQ-AA? AQ, QK. So I fold 99-JJ, AK, AJ.

Against any Q he is flipping and I'm definitely calling. Isn't it better to have better hands to push me off my Q? I am tight, but cont bet 2/3 and chance on the flop that he gives me - aren't there more hands I call with than those I fold? It's 1:1 to me on that call basically. Correct me if I'm wrong. Can someone run a calculator against my range?

I suggest you do some reading on equity calculations. This is a no brainer +EV shove.

215 effective stack size. No, I'm way far from all in, I had $600.

Doesn't really matter equity the calculator comes up with (even if it is 50/50), because it is ignoring (a) dead money (which makes 50/50 flips profitable) and (b) the FE he has against the weaker part of your range.

With this stack size (noting it is only his smaller effective stack size that is important, how much you cover him by is irrelevant), his shove is trivial.

ETA: True that you did cbet into 3 opponents, and I tight opponent raising out of the blinds might not cbet this board into that many opponents if they whiff. Still, they might do with JJ-, and once in a while with AK. And even if your opponent runs into your Qx+, whatever, that's like the worse case scenario for him (other than QQ obviously), and he's *still* profitable shoving into you (due to dead money and some FE even against the top end of your range).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Can't say I folded too much. My range preflop was tight. Sorry for confusion. He definitely went for fold equity but if I bet 2/3 cont bet, am I really folding to 1:1 flip? I don't think I'm folding too many hands. We were arguing about playing 37 preflop. I don't see how it can be profitable in the long run. My buddy thinks it's top pro level to play 37 that way.
P.S. I won by A high.

You're thinking about this completely wrong. Say your raising range pre was AJ+, KQ and 99+. With a Q on the board, that's 93 combos. You fold 18 combos of JJ-99, 15 of the AK combos (everything but AcKc) and 15 of the AJ combos (everything but AcJc). So you fold 48/93 of the time. You call with a range of QQ+, AQ, KQ, AcKc and AcJc. He has 44.2% equity.

So 48/93=51.6% of the time, you fold, and 48.4% of the time he has 44.2% equity. Looks like the $160 is all in. Equity calculation for him is: 51.6% of the time, he wins $100. 48.4% of the time when you call, he's putting in $160 and is 44.2% to win $100+160. So, when you call, his EV is .442*260-.558*160= about $26. So, even when you call given all the money already in the pot he hasn't made a mistake (though if he knew you'd call he wouldn't raise). EV all told is .516*100+.484*26=about $64. V is printing money in this spot with his raise. Of course, he also has EV if he just calls, but that's harder to figure out (given IOs), and I highly doubt it's as high as raising. This is a slam dunk spot to raise. You fold about half the time, and when you call he's doing fine.

His preflop play was atrocious.


Even if you flip over AA he should be shoving all in. Even if you told him "I'm never folding," he should shove. Do you understand why?

Playing 37s pre is definitely a leak, but once he does it the flop play is correct and standard.

If you had A-high other than Acxc, I think you made a mistake by calling. I doubt you're getting odds to call against some reasonable mix of club draws, Qx, sets and 54.

Disagree with this. If V knows we are never folding, he should just call for the IOs and try to get it in on later streets if he hits, or fold river if he whiffs river.

Another reason that shoving is clearly profitable here is for meta-game reasons, in that now that he knows you're often calling with A high here (BTW: unless we had a flush draw, I don't like the cbet or the call), this allows him to also shove his good made hands here (sets, etc.).

GcluelessNLnoobG

We could probably do some math with some basic assumptions but I'm feelin lazy. Does hero ever call if the flush hits? If the answer is no then shoving is likely better.

Yes obviously preflop is terrible by villain, but not to be outdon by the horrible call on your part with A high on the flop.

It's also possible that if Hero shoves a blank turn that Villain might not have odds to call, especially if Villain sets up (and has thus wasted the flop call and not realized his equity). Might be close in this contrived example (i.e. shows AA and declares I'm not folding) which is best; my initial reaction was flatting might also be best in this case, but I can be convinced otherwise (although variables might make this difficult to argue, such as how often Hero donks different types of turns, his sizing, how often he calls a bad turn, etc.).

Gtoolazytoomath,plusmathishardG

It's pretty hard for his play to not be profitable and it's pretty hard for your Ace-high call on the flop to be profitable.

73cc has 44.7% equity v. AA on a Qc5c4d board. Note that we have the gutshot too.

Ah, my bad. Didnt notice the gutshot.