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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 07-02-2014, 12:56 PM   #1
Archer68
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AQs MP2

$.50 NL 10 handed $20 max buy in.
we are all regs with each other

UTG+1 ($35 stack)raises $4.50 range 33-JJ, ATs+, QQ+ he normally bets bigger to cut field down. If over card comes of his pair and misses his set he will c/f.

Hero MP2 ($18) AQdd

my question is what would be most +EV line?

1. To shove and get it heads up?

2. Just call because seen 2 guys already had chips in hand.

3. Fold
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Old 07-02-2014, 03:57 PM   #2
Koss
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So there are two guys behind you ready to call? In this case I am thinking fold. I dont want to play a shortstacked multiway pot. If the opener is as predictable as you say then I think you can flat heads up because even if you miss you can bluff. But with two other guys you are going to have to hit the flop and hope it holds up.

I suppose if the two guys looking to call are weak players you could call too. If they will stack off with KT on an QTx flop then calling may be ok.
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Old 07-03-2014, 02:17 AM   #3
B&E
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Re: AQs MP2

If I am understanding correctly, your range for V is 33-JJ, ATs+, and I'm assuming AKo. I'm also assuming a $.25SB and $.50BB.

Since you are all regs, do you know what V will do if you shove? If V will call with all of his range, you will only have 46.7% equity and should fold.

But lets say when you shove, V will fold 33-77 and ATs-AJs. That means he's folding 36/75 combos where you win $5.25. When he calls the remaining 39/75 combos, you have an average ev of -$2.70. Totaling it up the play has an average ev of +$1.12.

Of course this is just an very rough estimation. Sometimes a player will wake up with a better hand behind you. Sometimes your read is wrong and V does has AA-QQ in his range. Then again, sometimes V may call with ATs or AJs which would increase the play's ev.

Another thing to consider is meta-game reasons. I think that in such a small buy-in game with all regulars, shoving is good for the game and good for your image. If I thought the play was close to neutral ev, I would happily shove for that reason alone. (I am assuming you can easily rebuy)

In this hand, I would not call, especially when I thought players were going to call behind. Most of the time you will miss the flop and be forced to c/f after putting 25% of you stack in preflop.
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Old 07-03-2014, 10:43 AM   #4
Archer68
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Re: AQs MP2

Good post B&E that is what I like one to make me think. yes correct on blinds. I did shove, but first thought on mind was to isolate. was pretty sure I had 2 overs. which I did he showed TT. I like your thought on image. I play a real tight game so I do get respect with raises and when they see I in mood to push back they really keep eye on me. They think I am tight because of scared money, but I feel super tight play at this group is best and can use that image they have of me.
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