History: 5/1/2 (mandatory button straddle). This table has been awesome. Action and loose play in almost every seat. $22 raises have been 5-ways to flop multiple times.

Hero: I have been the tighter player at the table but did win a massive pot when I called $22 p/f with 45s and flopped a straight and stacked KK. I have been calling almost every raise in position as if I hit I know I'm shipping a massive pot. Stack size: $500.

Villain 1: Older Black Man who is quite loose and fairly aggressive after his stack has grown large. Makes some really stupid calls and bets when he is obviously beat. Stack size is $450

Villain 2: Owner of the charity room. Straight forward in big pots. One of the other tighter players. Stack size also about $450. I have a lot of history with this player and know what he has exactly most of the time.

Action starts in SB (V1) who raises to $20. BB calls. V2 calls from MP. HJ ships it for $33. I call with AQs from the CO especially because I can tell the BTN is going to fold. All 3 other players call the small shove.

Flop: 4s7sJd (Pot: $165)

V1 bets $40. BB folds. V2 shoves for about $420. Action is on Hero, but as I first start thinking V1 announces call. In this room if I call or fold that call will be binding.

Hero???

V2 has a range of 77 and JJ. That's it. 100% sure. Since I know he has a set, I need to hit the flush without the board pairing and also my over-cards are no good. I believe I'm getting 2.5:1 odds on the call and that isn't enough.

Thoughts???

You'd be putting in $420 to win $420*2 + $165 = $1,005, so yeah, you're getting about 2.4:1 on the call. It's +EV if you win more than 1/3.4 = 29.5% of the time.

Oddly, given a reasonable (if loose) calling range for V1 you actually have a better chance of winning against the both of them than you would heads-up against V2! For instance, you're 25.6% to win against just a set of 7's, but 27.1% against 77 and AJ.

You'll notice neither of those numbers are 29.5% or higher, so based just on that it's a fold. But I call here, b/c personally I'm never 100% sure about ranges. V2 never has QQ here? He never has two pair? Or 6s5s? Or anything else that we're a lot better than a 3:1 dog against? Combine that with the fact that my chances aren't affected all that much no matter what V1 holds, and I feel pretty good about a call.

I call here because at worst its about EV neutral and gambool

Well said. I call in this spot and other close spots since our ranges could always be off. Gambolllllllll.

Is no one else worried that V1 might actually have a hand. He was the original raiser from the SB, led the flop into 3 other players. Depending on the rules of the room, V1 may not have been able to reraise the all-in preflop. Maybe we should consider V1 to have JJ+.
Also, don't forget the fact that we also have to beat the preflop all-in villian for the $165 main pot. If we add 56s to V2's range, we could possibly be up against V1(JJ+), V2(JJ, 77, and 56s), and a totally random hand. I think this is a straight forward fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,940 games 0.000 secs 1,188,000 games/sec

Board: 4s 7s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.444% 74.44% 00.00% 4422 0.00 { JJ, 77 }
Hand 1: 25.556% 25.56% 00.00% 1518 0.00 { AsQs }

Then it's an easy fold, because you aren't getting 3:1+

Action Dan would be proud.

I like the guys who say gambooool, easy ship and everything else... Me thinks IRL that putting that much glimmer into play isn't going to be as easy as saying, "Ya bro, easy snap call."

Do we really need to gamble $500 here in a maybe neutral spot?

I will say this... If your plan is to hit the blackjack table after the poker, then go ahead and skip that plan and gamboooooool here.

For what its worth I fold here if I am 100% sure the first person has JJ/77 since the random donkey caller could have my outs. That is a rarity though.

This, if your up, and want a chance to double or nothing your money here, call.
If your up and just want to keep your winnings, sigh fold and hate yourself when you river the flush.

Quick question, could villain ever show up with Aces or Kings here?

V2 has 77 or JJ 100% of the time. V1 could possibly have KK or AA at time or as low as say 88 or weak J.

There you have... 100% he has a set... Fold.

This is a fold because our equity vs villains' range is lower than our pot odds.

Our equity against V2's set is 25%. The effect of V1's hand on our equity is close to negligible (because we still basically need a spade and for the board not to pair).

Our pot odds are:

1005:420 (as a ratio)
420/1425 (as a fraction)
29% (as a percentage)

25% is a smaller number than 29%. That means we should fold.

1 time in 4, the outcome would be +$1005.

3 times in 4, the outcome would be -$420.

On average the result of calling here can be expressed as:

$1005 + (-$420 x 3) = -$255

OP, you are not getting 2.5 to 1 actually, if he has sets he has a 75% (3 to 1 I think) because of full house over flush, and I doubt sincerely that his range is that accurately narrow.

If I'm as certain as the OP that V2 has a set plus a decent chance that V1 has 2 pair or my flush outs, I'd fold.

Pretty easy fold to me if your 100% sure v2 has a set. I'm sure u can find better situations to get your money in if your that confident in your reads.

Wow, he showed you his cards before he pushed? Wish I could find me some opponents who would do that.

But wait, he couldn't have, because it was two different holdings you say he had. Were you up against Schroedinger's cat in this hand?

(Do you see the point I'm trying to make?)

(Odds of him having JJ) + (Odds of him having 77) = 100%

Fold. If you want to gamble like that, play pit games. with two opponents; a tight, business means business player and a loose calling 'tard, I see a lot of your outs gone and you being up against a big, made hand.

Call cause folding is boring.

No, they weren't. That's the point I was trying to make.