this is going to be more of a math exercise than a regular hand analysis. I almost never sit down and do the math on these things so I thought I would post it for possibly some input.

Hero(btn) ($1000)- LAG been doing a lot of 3 betting

V1 (utg)($500)- seems TAG ish decent player

V2(co)covers- fish, hero has been 3 betting a lot to iso, V1 probably notices


V1 raises $15, V2 calls, hero raises to $60 with AQ, V1 calls V2 calls.

flop $180 48J
check, check, hero bets $60, V1 calls, fold

turn $240 48J - 4
check, check

River 48J - 4 - K
check, hero? $360 eff. behind

I wanted to look at how often and if we should be bluffing here w AQ

hero has 32 Value combos and 40 air/bluff hands
V has 14 value combos (beat a king) and 36 bluff catching hands

to see how i constructed the ranges I put them below in a spoiler

our Optimal bluffing frequency = 0.375 =b/(2b+1) where b= 360/240=1.5

therefor 62.5% value hands -> 32 value + 11 of our 40 air hands should be bluffs otr

conclusion:
It makes sense to bluff about 25% of the time we get to the river in this spot, I think AQ makes a lot of sense because of the potential blockers to AK, KQ that could call river and if we decide to bluff all of our non suited AQ combos here we will be about balanced.

ranges

I have many questions. Why are you checking back AJ and QQ? Why are you including hands in this range which bet the turn 100% of the time? Do you really threebet an UTG raiser who "seems TAG ish decent player" with all your combos of KQ?

In reality the value range you're repping here is just AK, plus whatever KQ you have. I very rarely fold anything that can beat a bluff to aggressive players at LLSNL in these spots where a big card rivers, because they invariably overbluff.

Check flop, betting your entire range 3-way in a 3b pot is a pretty huge leak, especially vs an UTG raiser who just 3b/call and where UTG/CO have each 6-9 combos of sets on this exact board.

ap pretty obvious bet here

firstly, AJ and QQ. probably not, i was being a little bit lazy when i was putting those hands into my range, tbh they probably get bet OTT so maybe they should have been excluded for that reason.

with KQ i gave myself 8 combos so that doesn't included KQs. And no KQ would normally be a fold but I 3 bet extra light to try and Iso V2

I don't think it is as big of a problem as it make look. we're only c-betting 100% on certain flops where our range is way ahead of our opponents.

not c-betting because your opponents could have sets seems like a lol

lastly if this is just an "obvious bet" we're going to be bluffing way to much

So if board changes to J87r or J86r you still cbet? Lol. The board in question much more favors the callers over yours and there are two of them. I didnt give the fact that our opponent could have sets being the only reason we shouldnt cbet. Over cbetting flops is one of the biggest leaks and most common leaks players have but if you’re set on your mind and are just gonna lol and then w.e., keep lighting money on fire by cbetting 100% of your range 3-4 way in 3b pots where ranges are condensed and you have no FE.

It’s funny you say we’re bluffing too much when you cbet A high vs two players on a not so good board for your range, ie bluffing too much otf

Blocking QQ/QJ prob makes AQ one of the better bluff hands, he’s more likely to have weaker floats like 1010-, = he’s more likely to fold = more profitable bluff hand than whatever else you’re bluffing with

Done posting strat tho cuz you got everything figured out

Despite the comment by ChrisV that he rarely folds here, this is a good river card to bluff.

If I got here like this, my bluff frequency is much higher than 25% at 1/2-1/3. If this guy is really a TAG at 3/5, I don't think we ever get here like this.

we have a tremendous amount of FE on non suited non connected boards, in position, after we 3bet. I'm happy to hear constructive criticism, and maybe you're right but i can't see any logic in what you're saying

Idk what's going on here but it's definitely a c-bet in the original example.

I can take or leave cbetting there. I definitely wouldn't in a single-raised pot, but there's more FE in 3bet pots generally.

c-bet or not I don't think that's the main take away here

The take away i got from doing this hand was that players will tend to overbluff this river and when we get a value hand like AK most players will probably tend to under price their value bets

Yeah. Overbluffing has some logic to it, in that it works a lot, you just have to know your opponent. I should probably work some overbet shoves with AK here into my game against thinking players.