I think people calling and “playing poker” should talk out some possible turns and action therefrom and what they expect to do with them. It feels like it’s just postponing the difficult decision.

I just thought about this again, and although I do like raising flop vs flatting to “define ranges” better, have you thought about what happens if someone behind (or the UTG himself) plays sneaky and just flats with a set? The problem is they would also flat with their good FDs like Axhh, Qxhh, 54hh, 76hh. So if the turn bricks, what are you doing against that combined range of slowplayed sets and FDs?

Shoving and denying equity to FDs while risking to let their sets stack you? Or checking and giving them a free river? And if you check brick turns, are you check/folding because they would only shove turn with sets there?

That's a lot of "ifs" for one post. What I know is I would fold this occasionally depending on reads, call the $65 occasionally, but mostly raise the flop. Now that I raised and someone behind us shoved $500. I'm folding pretty easily.

What I also know is that its pretty obvious is that we had UTG beat based on him folding to the shove. I doubt hes folding a set to a shove and I doubt he had AA/KK.

Whether or not it would been cheaper for us to call the $65 we have no way of knowing. I know if I was the guy who shoved the $500, and UTG led $65 and the preflop raiser only called, I would shove with a FD there all day long.

If I was that guy and there was a $65 bet and a raise to $175 (indicating very little FE for me) I would never shove my FD. So we will be folding the best hand a lot more often if we just flat the $65 and there's an aggro guy behind us then when we raise the flop and get shoved on.

Fair enough. But you still don’t say what you’re doing when you raise and :

1) guy behind just calls
2) utg just calls

I think you just explained why a raise actually doesn't help us define ranges.

Why are we using the word "cheaper"? It seems indicative of a desire to minimize losses in this hand, rather than maximize profit.

It doesn't matter how often we get shoved on in each scenario. The difference probably isn't that much really. And even if that point were conceded, there's no way it's +EV enough to offset A) The times you get flatted behind by a poorly defined range of good to great hands. B) The money you lose when someone behind us doesn't put $65 in the pot with a worse hand when they otherwise would have.

B in particular is huge $

Old,


Whether I call or raise to 165 depends on which players to act have 500 and which have 1000.

+1 Let's call this what it is. No matter how obvious it is that flatting is the +EV play, many will inherently resort back to the old cliches of "protecting their hands" or "taking it down now".

Raising doesn't work here and the way this hand played out exemplifies why. We put in $175 and are contemplating putting in $325 more because we're "priced in". You see what we did there? We put ourselves in a position to make the decision easier because we didn't want to deal with the potentially complex decision(s) on the turn and river.

If dealing with the complexity is too much, like Owl said, that's okay, just fold. But don't jump on a forum and preach bad strat to the masses in hopes they will adopt the same poor play as you to help justify your poor play in the first place.

Ah ok sure...

MAAG decent straightforward betting value hands not bluffy UTG 600 (donks 65)
MAAG decent straightforward betting value hands not bluffy UTG2 1000
MAWG New player reg, competent, first hand UTG3 500
V New player reg, competent, first orbit HJ 500 (jams 500)
20s euro dude, weird bet sizing splashy, played 2 hours, reloaded twice 1000
Blinds folded

Old,

Didn’t post that intending to spur a discussion on that point, just making a comment. In a nutshell, when I’m raising there it’s because I think there’s a good chance of a reraise from a player who I’m happy to snap call against.

I just wanted to get heads up against UTG
If he calls and the turn bricks I jam
If someone comes in behind a 175 raise then they have strong draw or set, we’ve flushed out all the nonsense
Such a simple plan until I realised I’m priced in to call against that range

What about limp raising AQ from EP? Is that viable or just too weak a holding to include in that range (which I love and do all the time on cash)

Sorry, but there’s no proper reasoning givn by anyone that flatting is +ev and raising is -ev.

If you’re flatting $65 on flop and flatting $110 on a brick turn, raising to $175 OTF is putting in the same amount of money, except we have better defined ranges and take control of the hand.

The only thing anyone has proven in this debate is that this is a very tough spot with no correct way to play it. If anyone still thinks their way is the only way, then they are just hard headed and stubborn. I dont think raising is the only way at all. Its just my preference. I could be swayed but nobody has shown any proof whatsoever that another option is better.

OldSilver,

I think you played it fine. What I dont know is why you think you were priced in. I dont think there are enough players who would go all in for $500 after a bet and a healthy sized raise with a draw for you to call here. I think its an easy fold (unless you have a read on the guy who shoved that says otherwise)

SAYS THE GUY WITH 2 POSTS
PLEASE TELL US THE NAME OF THE BOOK YOU JUST WROTE SO WE CAN ALL GO OUT AND BUY IT

This seems like a good argument on the surface, but it really isnt.

As we play more streets and get to see more actions (bets,sizes,checks or whatever) from our villains, our bulk of information goes up. With more information comes more accurate ranging. More accurate ranging means better decisions.

We can get more reads on every level with proceeding with the hand further on with a flatcall. We can see what everybody else behind us does. If they call, we can evaluete who is calling and what kind of range we put them on. Same if somebody raises. If an OMC shoves for 500, we can easily get out of the way. If an aggro onlinegrinder shoves, we can happily stackoff if donkbettor folds.

Most of the time everybody else will fold though, and we play rest of the hand heads up in position with very good chances of manouvering precisely on later streets without putting ourself in a stackoff situation right away on the flop, when we have the least amount of information available to us.

At least this is my few cents. I am comfortable playing postflop like this, and i believe my edge and odds of making better decisions than my opponents gets bigger the more information i get as the hand progresses. That may not be the case for everybody though.

Cant argue with this but let me just add that the best way to play the rest of the hand IP against the UTG flop bettor is to put in a flop raise.

Maybe I just suck playing mulitway, especially OOP, but IMO if we get called once or more behind us, the hand is going to get a lot tougher on the turn and river. We dont know who behind us has draws, which draws, maybe they are slow playing a set..or whatever. I wish there was a way to measure the EV of all the flop options but there really isnt. All any of us know is how we normally play these spots but none of us know if the other way is better or not. There's just too many variables.

Limp/rr is underrated in general, I don't mind it in this spot and with random suited hands sometimes. As an iso I think I prefer a larger sizing to prevent this and low SPR since you're in EP. My usual thing is make it fairly large in EP, bit smaller in MP, smaller in LP, and enormous from the blinds.

On flop there's no easy answer. Pricing in draws behind me is pretty miserable but also getting jammed on by UTG or someone else is horrible too. AQo is probably the worst made hand I can raise here. When you get shoved on I think it's time to fold.

I think I prefer a call on the flop since big draws and sets are super likely to play fast behind you, so when the action doesn't get raised you can feel a lot more confident in your hand on most turns.

FYI.....for you people who believe in GTO

Snowie shows a fold to be correct on the flop. I dont trust Snowie all that much because he plays against other good GTO players and we play against mostly bad players, but I do like a fold here the more I think about it and the deeper the stacks are.

Curious as to why you think this is best HU ip with TPTK on a Q73hh texture?

I stated my reasons for flatting multi-way, among them was to not fold QX/88+/FD. A raise would do that.

Not really when UTG donks into you again on brick turns.

Snowie can’t be serious. Folding TPTK to a single small donk bet OTF because it’s multiway and we are afraid of others behind, lol. If we’re folding AQ here, what are we calling with? Just QQ+ and FDs? Or are we folding KK/AA too?

I’d like to know what Bart Hanson thinks of this spot. Will send him the link to this thread.

That’s great and all. Now talk through some possible actions after you flat the flop and the turn is X and Y happens. Seriously, I’d find that helpful.

Your post implicitly assumes you just get all the other decisions right later — which if you assume that then heck yes you should flat everything because you’ll only put in more money when it’s right. But I don’t think you actually can do that effectively here.

Pertucci said if he calls, most of the time everyone else will fold and we get to play the rest of the hand HU IP vs UTG. I said its much more likely that we play HU IP vs UTG if we raise.

That may or may not be the highest EV play. I dont think anyone will ever know for sure. But surely there cant be an argument that raising is more likely to get HU than calling?

Cmon you guys, this thread is FULL of proof and reasoning.

1) We don't perceive the donk bettor's range as being particularly strong. It really looks like he's doing something fishy like betting to find out where he is at. Why would we light up a sign that says "Hey pal, you're out of position with a dominated Q! That's where you're at!"

2) As has been mentioned extensively ITT, a raise has the opposite effect of defining opponents ranges behind us. It allows them to continue passively with the strongest parts of their range. However, if we flat, any hand better than ours is forced to raise and protect its equity.

3) The "gravy train of callers" is a myth. It's a flat out lie being perpetrated throughout this thread by folks who just want to end the hand now and are clawing for any justification possible. Here's the proof:

In a single raised pot, a string of pre-flop callers probably have wide ranges. Agree? Ok good. How wide. Let's just say for now, they have 20% of starting hands. That's 265 combos.

Here is a range of all hands that I think are possible (though some are quite unlikely) that could continue if we flat the donk bet. Notice I said "continue", not "call".

7d7s, 7d7c, 7s7c, 3d3s, 3d3c, 3s3c, AhKh, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QdJd, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QdTd, QhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Qd9d, Qh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Kh8h, Qd8d, Qh8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah6h, 9h6h, 8h6h, Ah5h, 8h5h, 6h5h, Ah4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, Ah2h, 5h2h, AhQd, AsQd, AsQh, AcQd, AcQh, KdQh, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QhJs, QhJc

Did I miss any? (I don't think Q7, Q3 or 73 calls pre, but YMMV.)

Ok, so that's 60 hands, out of 265. Each player has a 22% chance of calling. I'm not going to do the math out here unless someone asks. I did it in Excel and these are the probabilities of each potential outcome.

4 folds = 35.8%
3 folds = 41.9%
2 folds = 18.4%
1 fold = 3.6%
No folds = 0.3%

So that's more than a third of the time, everyone will fold. And more than three quarters of the time, you'll have one caller or less. And when you are called by 1 person, most of the time it's a pretty straightforward situation where they have a flush draw.

Furthermore, if you want to fine tune these numbers....I'd say that the pre-flop call range of 20% might be too snug. Maybe it's 25%. That would be 331 total hands. Maybe they find a few more heart draws in those extra hands, so (just spitballing here), let's say 70/331 hands call = 21.1% chance each player calls.

So you see, the wider pre-flop ranges you give to the villains behind...the lower the chances we get the "gravy train".

Also, the calling range I gave the villains is probably too wide. There are some weak naked Qx in that range. Those might find a fold. That's not good for us, obviously. But it does reduce the chances of us playing the rest of the hand out of position.

So everyone please just stop with the "everyone will call and we'll be lost out of position in a bloated pot" argument.

Consider it debunked.

I was referring to the players behind. UTG can still have a stronger hand.