Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424
Do we know if villain is positionally aware? A lot of players will not adjust their opening range much in early position. I could definitely see a random 1/2 player raising a lot of speculative hands in early position.
Does he limp a lot pre-flop? If not, I think hands like JTs are in his range. If he does like to limp, I tend to discount those hands since he'd be hesitant to open them.
Yes, I think we can assume villain is at least not brain dead and likely positionally aware. He changed seats and actually told the reason for it (being to left of better players).
I do think AQ can be under repped here but still not sure if it's strong enough to call this flop raise. I'm actually not a huge fan of the c/r on flop, don't see what it accomplishes... he's calling $30 to win ~$24+17+47 = $88 which means they need ~25% equity to continue. I actually think this is really common and people think I'm a calling station for calling so many raises, but raising too little on the flop may be a big leak for a lot of players. Will try and break down why but would appreciate comments.
What happens when you check raise and he calls:
You will have to continue to play OOP on a really connected board and threat of overpair and he only needs 25% equity to continue. Even if people say "oh it doesn't matter he doesnt know about pot odds"... it does matter. I think the only real reason to c/r here would be for value vs draws and other top pair hands which is kinda meh as draws can call (20%ish of time on turn they hit flush, ~13% of time they hit a pair which improves their equity on river to 28%) and other top pairs can either get out or try and bluff later if scare cards hit. I think it's a bad habit to get into trying to play for big pots with TPTK hands especially OOP with no real reads. Would prefer a c/c and reeval turn line instead since you're OOP.... unless you're prepared to bomb a lot of blank turns with the c/r line.
What happens when you c/r and he 3 bets:
Well, ****. He's UTG so he's gotta be strong but maybe he knows that he's utg and probably looks strong so he's trying to bluff. Or, if he was serious about you being one of best at table, you should consider the fact that he may truly be avoiding spots with you and has an overpair here. Or maybe he knows that you know that he knows you're a good player and knows that you will assume he will only being playing premiums. If you decide you're going to go with the hand just shove because you can be bet off so many turns if you check.
TL;DR If you check raise, raise more at least. Even an extra 5bb sways amount of equity they need to profitably move forward with and gives them more of a chance to make a mistake when they have weaker draws and call your raise. Also greater fold equity which is okay since OOP. As played, fold > shove > call (please don't ever call here) imo
Last edited by tunkpirate; 10-10-2013 at 10:56 PM.
