Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
It's as though all y'all decided on the flop, "He probably has a lot of kings," and don't revise that on the turn. You are considering hand combos in your ranging, right?
Sure, but I think people overestimate this effect. For example, if we think that given the flop action he has a K 50% of the time, when the turn falls we should only revise that down to 40%. Not a huge difference.
After the turn is a K, we should revise our estimate of the probability he has a K from p(he has K) to:
p(he has K | turn K) = p(turn K | he has K)*p(he has K) / (p(turn K | he has K)*p(he has K) + p(turn K | he does not have K)*p(he does not have K))
I used these values
p(turn K | he has K) ~ 2/50
p(turn K | he does not have K) ~ 3/50
p(he has K) ~ 50% (or whatever number you want)
p(he does not have K) ~ 50% (or 100% - whatever you picked for p(he has K))
plug these in and we get p(he has K | turn K) = 40%, i.e., not that big of a difference from our initial guess of 50%