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Old 05-14-2019, 04:41 PM   #1
XtraScratch8
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AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

2/5 $500 max buy-in

Hero is a TAG winning reg. Capable of bluffs, thin value and has a fold button when needed.

V2 is a MAWG. Says he doesnít play often, but Iíve been impressed with his play so far in the couple hours since the table opened. Definitely think he knows what heís doing.

V1 is a younger middle eastern guy who definitely does not know what heís doing. This guy is one of the fishiest reg fish that I see in the room. He has two modes. Ultra-nit mode where he waits for only monsters and stack off with any top pair/decent draw mode. Today he is in repetitive short buy stack off mode. When he gets in this mode he plays super wide pre.

V2 is UTG+2 and has $700.
Hero is in HJ with $650.
V1 is in the CO with $195 (just did another $200 rebuy).

Hero is dealt AQdd in HJ.

A six of diamonds is exposed and becomes the burn card during the deal.

V2 opens to $20, folds to me, I decide to flat and hope that V1 comes along, V1 does come along, blinds fold.

Flop: ($67) Ac - 9d - 3c

V2 bets $30, I flat, V1 flats.

Turn: ($157) Ac - 9d - 3c - 4d

V2 checks, I bet $85, V1 tanks and decides to shove remaining stack of $145, V2 folds, I call.
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Old 05-14-2019, 04:51 PM   #2
jdr0317
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
2/5 $500 max buy-in

Hero is a TAG winning reg. Capable of bluffs, thin value and has a fold button when needed.

V2 is a MAWG. Says he doesn’t play often, but I’ve been impressed with his play so far in the couple hours since the table opened. Definitely think he knows what he’s doing.

V1 is a younger middle eastern guy who definitely does not know what he’s doing. This guy is one of the fishiest reg fish that I see in the room. He has two modes. Ultra-nit mode where he waits for only monsters and stack off with any top pair/decent draw mode. Today he is in repetitive short buy stack off mode. When he gets in this mode he plays super wide pre.

V2 is UTG+2 and has $700.
Hero is in HJ with $650.
V1 is in the CO with $195 (just did another $200 rebuy).

Hero is dealt AQdd in HJ.

A six of diamonds is exposed and becomes the burn card during the deal.

V2 opens to $20, folds to me, I decide to flat and hope that V1 comes along, V1 does come along, blinds fold.

Flop: ($67) Ac - 9d - 3c

V2 bets $30, I flat, V1 flats.

Turn: ($157) Ac - 9d - 3c - 4d

V2 checks, I bet $85, V1 tanks and decides to shove remaining stack of $145, V2 folds, I call.
We could bet 70 on the turn even w/ the diamond dead. With this exact hand it probably doesn't matter, though; we aren't eager to get it in if V1 continues in the hand and seems likely he has between 0-2 outs total, so we don't really need to set up the "threaten to jam all in if V2 kamikaze's"
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Old 05-14-2019, 07:39 PM   #3
setintostraight
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

NH, WP.

I don't mind flatting AQ here in position against the better player. And the fish is short enough that we can get their whole stack in on later streets without a 3!
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Old 05-14-2019, 09:00 PM   #4
Spanishmoon
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

I suppose this fish has binked two pair. You're getting 5-2 and you've got 17 outs if he has A4. So I suppose it's the right price.

You're better than me so I hesitate giving you advice. But I would've raised this flop, fish or no fish. V2 is capable and I see no reason to mess about trying to filet the fish with V2 still in. Sometimes they wriggle off the hook and sometimes we put the hook through our own thumb.
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Old 05-15-2019, 03:36 AM   #5
barney big nuts
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

looks good to me nh
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Old 05-15-2019, 05:41 AM   #6
Tarheel234
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Well played, only thing I would say is that we shouldnít focus our preflop decision so heavily on the fish behind us, but rather on the dynamic with the stronger player. I would also flat preflop, but not to keep the fish in, I would flat because we have position on the stronger player. If we were OOP to the stronger player I would 3 bet to avoid playing post flop OOP. I find that fish are going to do what they do regardless of our actions especially when they are shortstacked
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Old 05-15-2019, 06:09 AM   #7
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post

Hero is a TAG winning reg. Capable of bluffs, thin value and has a fold button when needed.
the yuri boyka of poker

ship turn
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:25 AM   #8
XtraScratch8
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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I suppose this fish has binked two pair. You're getting 5-2 and you've got 17 outs if he has A4. So I suppose it's the right price.

You're better than me so I hesitate giving you advice. But I would've raised this flop, fish or no fish. V2 is capable and I see no reason to mess about trying to filet the fish with V2 still in. Sometimes they wriggle off the hook and sometimes we put the hook through our own thumb.
Iím always glad to read your thoughts. Thereís definitely been threads where your thinking catches something that I donít. Hope you keep weighing in, the worst that can ever happen is a disagreement discussion.

I feel like one of the main differences in our games might be that I usually am comfortable letting a strong hand get to the turn or river in certain spots without raising a lot and giving away my hand strength.

On this hand, Iím really comfortable just flatting flop and again hoping for V1 to come along again, rather than raising and blowing him off his hand. If he folds, thatís fine, Iím still IP against V2 on a relatively safe board. If V1 calls, perfect. V2 will have to define his hand strength on the turn because he wonít bet a weak hand knowing that V1 only has $145 left and waste his bet. On the turn, Iím definitely hoping that V1 ships, I have him dead here almost every time unless he rivers 2pr or a club. Iím never contemplating folding, my hope is that he ships his short stack.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:26 AM   #9
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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ship turn
Really? Curious why you think this?
Seems unnecessarily risky to me.
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:07 AM   #10
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Really? Curious why you think this?
Seems unnecessarily risky to me.
You said he is in the mode where he plays wide preflop. Really, the only hands I think you need to worry about is if he spiked a 4 on the turn. I think he is showing up with more club draws more often than not. I would think he 3 bets AK here, and I would think he raises most of his two pair hands and sets on the flop. I am putting a lot of club draws in his range, as well as some hands like J9/J10.

Also, the 145 shove might as well be treated as a call. WIth his stack size, he is pot committed anyway, and I think his hesitation might be because he never calls here. He either folds or shoves.

Edit: I think you are ahead a decent amount of time, and you have outs if you aren't. Forgot to mention that part, so I too would call. Not a slam dunk, but a call.
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Old 05-15-2019, 12:46 PM   #11
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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You said he is in the mode where he plays wide preflop. Really, the only hands I think you need to worry about is if he spiked a 4 on the turn. I think he is showing up with more club draws more often than not. I would think he 3 bets AK here, and I would think he raises most of his two pair hands and sets on the flop. I am putting a lot of club draws in his range, as well as some hands like J9/J10.

Also, the 145 shove might as well be treated as a call. WIth his stack size, he is pot committed anyway, and I think his hesitation might be because he never calls here. He either folds or shoves.

Edit: I think you are ahead a decent amount of time, and you have outs if you aren't. Forgot to mention that part, so I too would call. Not a slam dunk, but a call.
Ohhh, I get the misunderstanding here.
I thought it was being recommended that I ship turn when it first got to me before the larger stack had folded.

Obviously Iím never ever folding to the short stack raise and was looking to commit him to shoving with my turn bet size. I was hoping that he would shove.
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Old 05-15-2019, 01:25 PM   #12
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Ohhh, I get the misunderstanding here.
I thought it was being recommended that I ship turn when it first got to me before the larger stack had folded.

Obviously Iím never ever folding to the short stack raise and was looking to commit him to shoving with my turn bet size. I was hoping that he would shove.
That's how I read it. If he meant the way you originally thought, I would be confused as well as that prices out most draws, and you are almost never being called by worse.

I thought turn was played fine. It looks like a shove to short stack either way, but it at least leaves room for V2 to continue with worse.

I think the hand plays itself, imo. This just comes down to if he is spiked a 4, or is chasing a flush.
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Old 05-15-2019, 01:50 PM   #13
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Looks good. Flat pre is good awareness.
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Old 05-15-2019, 04:42 PM   #14
XtraScratch8
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Looks good. Flat pre is good awareness.
Right on. Was curious if people would think that this should still be a 3! regardless of table circumstances. I felt good about how I played this hand, and wanted to post one that I felt good about to contrast the one I felt like I botched.

Results:

Spoiler:
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Old 05-15-2019, 05:24 PM   #15
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Flatting from the HJ to let a short stack CO in behind is a bit overrated. This hand could still end up 6-way with you in the worst relative position. You could also be squeezed from behind in which case both options (calling/folding) suck. I would have 3b small preflop to $50. Fish could still call the $50 which is a fine outcome.

As played I'm raising flop. V2 is not betting a hand worse than AQ on the flop, and there's enough turns out there that will put someone else ahead or kill the action leading to free rivers.
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Old 05-15-2019, 05:28 PM   #16
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Bet turn bigger, as played nh
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Old 05-15-2019, 05:53 PM   #17
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

The better the opener and the weaker the players left to act, the more polarized your 3-betting range should be. AQs isn't exactly a monster vs. an EP open anyway so it's not like we're losing value by not 3-betting.
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Old 05-15-2019, 08:00 PM   #18
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Villain is firmly in MP acting third preflop. AQs is a pretty damn strong hand.
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Old 05-15-2019, 10:47 PM   #19
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Flatting from the HJ to let a short stack CO in behind is a bit overrated. This hand could still end up 6-way with you in the worst relative position. You could also be squeezed from behind in which case both options (calling/folding) suck. I would have 3b small preflop to $50. Fish could still call the $50 which is a fine outcome.

As played I'm raising flop. V2 is not betting a hand worse than AQ on the flop, and there's enough turns out there that will put someone else ahead or kill the action leading to free rivers.
Xtrascratch: I see it as Johnny does AP. I really respect your game and obviously smart players can differ here. Youíve helped me so much to think about my under-realization of equity when ahead. So Iím very grateful to you.

I agree that my leak is that Iím afraid to let people draw against me and I try to minimize variance. This is a vestige of my prior real life career where I got paid for risk-adjusted return.

That said, itís possible youíre underestimating the impact of Vís range- strengthening and the ďBayesian impact ď as a hand progresses through streets. The V is strengthening at a non-linear rate due to card removal and Bayesí Theorem. Iím sure youíve studied all this so itís a question of implementation and individual utility. Iíve just found that the puck bounces strangely and I like to control as much a I can. Cheers!
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Old 05-15-2019, 11:36 PM   #20
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Whoops I obvi meant V2 not betting a hand better than AQ on flop *
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Old 05-16-2019, 02:03 AM   #21
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Originally Posted by XtraScratch8 View Post
Really? Curious why you think this?
Seems unnecessarily risky to me.
sry, I misread the stacks, thought spr was ~1
pot the turn, neither the pfr or the fish fold Ax and the fish calls even worse

you want to attack pfr's capped range (after x turn when a fish is in the hand on a 2 fds board). betting big vs a capped range increases the ev of both of your value and bluffs. you shouldn't have a lot of clubs or diamonds here but the guy prob won't notice.

main reason is fish has ~psb, he's not folding anything he likes, no reason to miss a 1/2p bet when the fish calls turn but folds river when his draws bricks
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Old 05-16-2019, 03:58 AM   #22
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

Well played, only thing I'd do differently is 3-bet pre, I'm not as concerned about trapping the fish when he's short stacked. I'd still probably flat sometimes though lol
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Old 05-16-2019, 08:02 AM   #23
XtraScratch8
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

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Xtrascratch: I see it as Johnny does AP. I really respect your game and obviously smart players can differ here. You’ve helped me so much to think about my under-realization of equity when ahead. So I’m very grateful to you.

I agree that my leak is that I’m afraid to let people draw against me and I try to minimize variance. This is a vestige of my prior real life career where I got paid for risk-adjusted return.

That said, it’s possible you’re underestimating the impact of V’s range- strengthening and the “Bayesian impact “ as a hand progresses through streets. The V is strengthening at a non-linear rate due to card removal and Bayes’ Theorem. I’m sure you’ve studied all this so it’s a question of implementation and individual utility. I’ve just found that the puck bounces strangely and I like to control as much a I can. Cheers!

I wasn’t even necessarily saying that it’s a leak. I’m sure that some would say the way that I let people draw on me the odd time is actually a leak of mine.

However, in this specific case it made a lot of sense for me to play it this way and won me the max imo. If the short stacked fish V had a 100bb+ stack then I would have definitely either 3! pre, or raised on the flop. But having his short stack on my left changes the dynamic of the hand a lot. It’s actually an ideal spot to be stuck in the middle of the two V’s imo.

Here’s the other thing that I think that some might not agree with. I think that playing the hand this way, in this spot actually REDUCES variance, I’ll explain why:

After the flop action, I can pretty reasonably put the fish V on a club draw. Really either/both V’s can have a club draw, and either/both can have an ace.

But I’m not worried about them having an ace, I have a boss kicker. Clubs is the only turn that I really don’t want to see.

So if I think that I can still get the fish shortstack in on the turn, why not wait and see what the turn is before I do that? I don’t have time to do the equity/pot share math right now, but I’m pretty sure that by doing this V is making a much bigger mistake by shipping on the blank turn rather than me just raising the flop and him shipping the flop. That’s less of a mistake on his part, in fact it’s barely a mistake at all.

The other massive benefit is that I get to keep V2’s action right in front of me and he is either forced to commit himself to the fish stack on the turn, or, as I suspected would happen, check and completely cap himself to basically giving up on the hand.

If the turn is a club, I probably just let the turn check through honestly and accept that it didn’t work out this time, and that’s the obvious drawback here, but imo it’s a pretty cheap backup plan that I don’t mind happening the odd time because it only costs me $50 when it does happen.

I’d rather give myself a high chance of winning the $447 pot, and risk losing the $127 around 20% when the action gets to me on the turn. Plus, the added benefit of actually seeing the turn before committing more money to the pot.

This is slightly result oriented, but I have had this play out this way many times before. I have also got away cheap on the turn many times before where I would have lost the equivalent of the short stacks $ had I committed them on the flop before.

This is also taking advantage of the other mistake that this fish makes imo, and that’s him not shipping on the flop. He should definitely ship with a pair and flush draw on the flop imo, so why help him do that?

If I 3! pre here, I let the fish go. He folds. If I raise the flop, he either ships and plays his draw better, or he folds.

(I’m not saying that I’m definitely correct here, but this is my consistent experience in these spots. Anyone with more math based knowledge can/should feel free to tell me all the ways that I’m wrong here.)

Oh, and Spanish, I actually am not really as studied up on Bayes’ theorem as I could or should be. I guarantee that there are many far better math based players here than myself. My math skillz are pretty decent, but I’m a far more intuition based player than math based. I’ve played a ton of hands and I think my live read skills are usually superior to my mathematical approach. So I’m always really glad to read the math whiz’s approach on here because it’s good learning for me.
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Old 05-16-2019, 09:00 AM   #24
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

^^^^^^

This is a great explanation of your thoughts. I suppose there’s a fine line between a Villain capping himself and his range strengthening by the act of calling. Obviously it’s results oriented, but you gave the fish nearly direct odds on the flop. On the turn a combo/flushdraw got similar odds and your IO is capped by the small stack.

The very act of this guy calling your flop bet narrows and strengthens his range closer to what he actually held. This I think implies that H should make a bigger turn bet to deny the correct price.

I hope others will weigh in on this because I could be dead wrong. And if I am I’d like to know before I learn the hard way lol.
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Old 05-16-2019, 01:42 PM   #25
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Re: AQdd in HJ - flat to keep the fish in?

I will add, it's close. It's important to be aware of the dynamics in an advanced way. By that I mean that this spot isn't as obvious of a flat as some other spots where the main fish has already vpiped and a raise is mostly going to ISO the strong player (who isn't going to pay you off) and lose the fish. It's for sure a risky just call adjustment (unless you have lots of calls w AQs here) with the fish behind, but if he's stationing hard, then it might be worth it. About relative position, as we see here, when the flop goes bet call call, the 'strong' player knows that he is forced to have value only for the remainder of the hand - that's what happened here, bet call call, and he was forced to check turn bc the presence of the fish overcalling your call means he cannot have bluffs and has to give up the pot. Fish dynamics play a huge part in the way pros/winners play their ranges - especially in otherwise reg-infested games.
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