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AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board

12-29-2017 , 08:08 PM
NWI NL 1/2
It's a wild game. Lots of people, including Hero, are off work today. Hero is doing well early. I'd been there for an hour and I'm up 225 with a $425 stack. I get AQ UTG. I bet $12. Pretty standard for me. Most of the wildness in the game comes from EP player here who was raising to $20 when it was folded to him---every hand. Predictably, he folds to my raise.
SB calls. 30 yo WG. He's at about $500 and is a 2/5 player.
BB calls. 45 yo WG. He's also a 2/5 player. He had $150 left. I think the game was huge before i got there but what happened with him I don't know. Both players are skilled. They make moves occasionally but i think both guys are long-term winners at Hold em.
Pot $36
FLOP
10Q9
SB leads out for $40.
BB goes all in. When I ask the amount he says, "138 and it has your name written on it."
Hero?????????
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-29-2017 , 08:51 PM
Easy fold
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-29-2017 , 09:21 PM
We've got $413 left in our stack and sb has us covered. We need to let this one go.

We're not that afraid of the bb. It looks like he has something we have reasonable equity against such as pair with a flush draw or pair with an open-ended straight draw.

But this is not a spot where we want to risk playing for 200bb against the SB.

Sorry if the SB instafolded. It is what it is.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-29-2017 , 09:42 PM
Fwiw, if effective stacks at the start of the hand were $150, I suspect calling would be a slightly better than break-even play.

If effective stacks are $180 or above, the risk to reward ration changes and I feel like foldingbis the right move.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 02:39 AM
You know I rarely have 200 BBs+ in a game and it's a totally different game with a bigger stack, thanks for the feedback.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 04:11 AM
I largely agree with nogyongs analysis which is obviously well thought out but do think we should give BB a bit more credit. I trust your average 2/5 player isn't shoving without a strong draw or 2 pair+. He still has to respect that the board nailed your UTG open range and the SB is getting 2.2:1 on his money so can call with a lot of his hands. Unless villains have history we don't know about he should be expecting a call from one of you a large percentage of the time.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 11:32 AM
In a wild, loose game, AQo UTG vs 9 players is a standard fold for me. With a big stack, it's an auto-muck without any thought. I also fold flop.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 11:34 AM
Im comfortable folding here. I think the sb, if he is a competant player, wouldnt expect to just bet this board and take it down on the flop. Hes got to be pretty sure hell be seeing action here so it looks like hes trying to charge draws the maximum with 2 pr or better.

Now its 140 to us and we still have the sb to act and a turn and river to get through. Since we have to showdown vs bb and sb is so deep and our hand cant really improve much makes this a fold for me.

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AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 04:20 PM
Fold. You opened for 12, got called in two spots. Flop is among the worst possible to give you TPTK, given all the draws and how connected it is.
But when SB leads and BB shoves, folding is the only play. Also, you've only invested a small amount in this hand, it's not the time to be a hero. And with position on these players for later hands, letting this one go makes the most sense.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 08:41 PM
This is an interesting spot, I actually think it is quite close given how villains are described as I think we should be ahead of sb leading range and bb can jam wide. Still stacks are so awkward if sb does not fold (and are we folding the rest of our chips) that its ok to let it go.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 09:08 PM
Great analysis everyone and i appreciate it. I've got to study some deep stack strategy because it's a whole different world. Thanks again.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-30-2017 , 10:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
In a wild, loose game, AQo UTG vs 9 players is a standard fold for me. With a big stack, it's an auto-muck without any thought. I also fold flop.
So you tighten up in these games? Would you not want to loosen up instead (at least in middle and late position) cause of your skill advantage?

I also fold flop OP. SB led pot into two villains on a board that smacks a flatting range. You block hands BB can have that you beat like KQ or QJ. Then you have to worry about SB who can easily have you crushed. Even if SB just flats, if he shoves a blank turn can you really stack off just one pair?
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-31-2017 , 06:01 AM
@LordRiverRat: Correct. I have yet to master the skill of outplaying my Vs when I'm OOP & I play 1200 hrs a year. I think I spent too much of my time concentrating on mid/late position. It's a work in-progress.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote
12-31-2017 , 10:35 AM
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking fearless gambol players are skilled. You can take it to the bank that BB is not very good. Watch showdowns for players like this and take notes to study away from the table. You'll find some terrible plays upon reflection that can get lost in the blur that is an action table.

You're probably in decent shape against their ranges here, but it's still a fold. You're committing your stack if you continue, but you're not playing against SB's range, you're playing against his continuing range. And you still might be ok, but a tight fold seems fine. They're gonna turn over FD, jx, and kx often enough to make you question the decision, but the stack sizes just work too much against you here.
AQ UTG, TPTK on hellacious board Quote

      
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