Hi all,

I witnessed this hand in a home game the other night. We were playing 0.25/0.50 with $1 straddle. Hero (my friend), who is MAAG TAG on nitty side, makes a standard raise in EP to $3.00 with AQhh. BB (MAWG, loose) 3! to $11. Hero flats. Pot $22.25. BB is known to bluff on occasion. Hero is playing around $90. BB has him covered (around $120).

Flop: Ad-6s-8c. BB checks, hero bets $10. BB calls. Pot $42.25.

Turn: Qs. BB checks, hero bets $15, BB check-raises to $30. This is where everything goes south for hero. Hero calls. Pot $102.25.

River: 10d. BB goes all in for hero's remaining $40. Hero? I am sure my friend would like to hear what everyone has to say about this hand, as it was a tough decision. He tanked for a long time on this one. (He's a very good player.)

Thanks,
DT

It's a call, river changes nothing. We're either behind OTT or not, nothing happened. Not like he shoved $100.

Pretty trivial call here. You lose to AA/QQ/TT/66/88, with TT being unlikely, so about 8 combos of hands that can beat top 2. There are 18 worse 2 pair combos of Ax, not to mention AK and other AQ's, all of which can take this line for value. I guess KJ/97 get there on the river, but aren't entirely consistent with his line up to this point.

Sure, the weaker Aces are light 3-bets, but so are 66 & 88.

His bet sizes were on the smaller size and may have induced the turn raise.

In summary you can beat part of his value range. When you factor in his bluff range, it's an easy call. Will you always win? no. But you can't fold here.

You gotta call there. No depression if you lose.

Yep, easy call. You have to be comfortable playing for stacks with a hand that strong. If you're not, check behind the turn and go for two streets of value instead of three. Koss has a very solid range analysis above.

Honestly I just jam back turn (well, first I size my own bet properly) and not think too hard about it.

I'd check the flop, size up the turn as played and stuff it over BB's x/r.

The river is a trivial call. There are very few combos that BB plays this way that we lose to, really only AA/QQ. BB's line looks a lot like AQ, but could be a lot of other things, too.

Otr, to avoid giving villain profitable bluffspot w/ whole range, you need to defend ~70% of your range so call w/ AQ+ seems mandatory. You can fold all the draws that were barreling ott and had to call vs minraise. How many handed are you? If this is full table you also can/should have AK here.

Now exploitably his line seems like he has very few bluffs after c/c flop,c/minraise turn,shove river so the question is how many worse hands V has for value. I don’t think that villain would play AK or smaller 2p like this most of the time. Also I feel like 66,88 and to a higher degree TT are not likely either not to mention KJ that is prolly close to never being played like this.

However, since we are getting great odds and are chopping with AQ, villain doesn’t need to bluff/overvalue worse often at all to make this a call. Infact if we discount half of lower sets and 2p, we still have enough equity to call river (33%) vs AA,QQ,66,A6,AQ. If we add 79 then we can add bluffs too so it’s a call anyway.

Fwiw we should call even if villains range is just AA,QQ,AQ. (Once again having 33% eq.)

The only way this is a fold is if villain isn’t minraising worse for value,has no bluffs AND has 88/66 in his range. This is little too many monsters under our bed for my liking.