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AQ River Decision AQ River Decision

08-27-2015 , 08:31 AM
1/3 hand I played yesterday

I've been at the table for a few hours and have had serious rungood all day. I'm sitting on over 300 BB. Villain in this hand has been at the table for an hour or so. Less of a station than I normally expect at this level and I haven't seen him get out of line at all. He's maybe mid 20s, young for the room.

Villain is sitting on about 180 BB in the HJ.

I'm in the BB with A Q

One limper, villain makes it $15, folded to me, I call, limper calls.

Pot is $46

Flop: Q 3 2

I check, limper checks, Villain bets $25, I c/r to $70, limper folds, villain calls after about 15-20 seconds

Pot after rake is $182.

Turn: 7

I bet $80, villain thinks for about 30 seconds and calls.

River: A

Something doesn't feel right. I check. Villain thinks for close to a minute and checks behind.

Comments on all streets appreciated.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 09:24 AM
I almost never c/r flopped TPTK. I usually either donk out and b/f every street, or c/c, and eval turn for c/c or donk out. In this case with the small flop bet and flushing board I don't hate it, but were rarely getting called by worse.

AP turn is fine.

River seems like an obvious b/f, if you haven't seen V get out of line. You aren't inducing from busted FDs, and likely not from other aces. Maybe from worse 2-pair, but they'd call a bet anyway. Seems like a waste of value to check, especially as I can't see that we're ever c/f.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 09:32 AM
Preflop is fine. Flop is ok though I'm probably just flatting against this villain a good amount of the time. As played, on turn I'm betting $115 and jamming river for 3/4 pot. I guess you really thought he had a set? Were you folding top 2 to a big river bet? If not, you should be betting for value.

Villain has AXcc, KK, AQ, AA, KQ and maybe even 88-JJ most of which we need to try to get value from, and since we may have a bully image, he may be putting on the police hat a higher % of the time. Betting turn small and checking river seems really bad.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 10:20 AM
I don't mind the re-raise on the flop (although I would have called), but I don't like the small bet on the turn. I want to bet the river, but I've had my spidey-sense go off before, and it's usually right, so at the table I get it. However, I think this is usually a bet/fold.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 10:35 AM
I don't like the raise on flop I'd either X/c or lead my self for about 30. Not really sure about turn since I would never have raised flop vs a villain who sounds fairly competant but I think betting around 50% with the intention of folding to a raise is OK. As played on the river it looks like villain has a Q or AcXc a lot of the time so I'm betting about 150 and hoping villain doesn't shove cause that'd be really ****ty :/

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AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 11:51 AM
I'm either/or/or for preflop. I think calling is an ok middle ground; we keep in dominated Ax hands that we would blow out with a 3bet, don't build a huge bloated pot OOP where we might have to give up on a lot of turns (and possibly have the pot stolen from us), plus stacks are big so we have a decent SPR to work with. But 3betting does give us the initiative against what looks like an iso-attempt. I'm guessing folding is too nitty, especially if other guy is a fish.

I would probably just check/call the flop. SPR is 12, so thanks to the smallish flop bet we aren't on our way to risking our stack OOP with just TP; but as soon as we raise, stacks are now in play (and I don't think we want to play for stacks here). Guy has to be on a flush draw + make that draw in order for us to kick ourselves for just calling; I ain't worried about it. Otherwise, we pretty much get him to fold hands we're beating while getting owned by hands that are beating us (exceptions being KQ, but whatever, I'm cool with getting 2 streets or even letting them bet all 3 streets for us as I'm sure a value better will do).

I think the flop check raise built way too big a pot for out hand. If we just bet a "smallish" $100 into $180 on the turn, that'll setup a $380 pot with only $355 left for the river, OOP. Will we be able to fold to a shove if the draws bust? Probably not. Which means we are playing for 180bb stacks with just one pair having put in a lol 2.8% of our stack preflop. Ug, imo.

Shoulda stopped the action on the river so we know Villain didn't check behind as this will influence our comments. Pretty sure we either have to be value betting or bluffcatching, and I'd lean towards value betting as Ax flush draw just got there a little bit and could check behind.

GcluelessNLnoobG
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 12:20 PM
Which hands do you 3b out of the BB v HJ? AK+? If you're not raising AQo maybe you don't raise JJ. That's so tight. It might be good, but at the games I play in I'm definitely raising for value.

I am interested to hear which other hands you xr on the flop. Most of your sets as well? I guess check raising this hand adds value to your xr range but it belongs in your check calls. When you check raise, what do you expect to call you? QQ+, sets, flush draws, KQ, some QJ I guess. I quickly stoved this and you are like 48% against this range. Do you get better hands to fold that often? Worse ones to call? A quick estimate of a calling range shows you might not be ahead. I think the check raise is a mistake. I am interested to hear others' thoughts on this.
Also, the suited aces and queens are blocked.

Are you folding to a 3b? calling and then calling it off seems like spew, and which cards do you want to see? only Qs?

I do not like the turn sizing. You xr the flop for value, right? Go on and get it. V has like $440 and the pot is $180. If you plan on gii, which is what I expect from the xr and the turn bet, you can bet 120 and shove the river. I would have called and if turn goes xx then lead river.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 12:30 PM
OOP 3way, I prefer to 3bet or fold pre, unless against a superstation or a LAG. If you CC I think you need to be able to steal postflop quite a bit with some creative lines. To do this I´d want a good feel for V´s tendencies. I´m guessing this is not the case given the limited info you provided on him.

I would bet or c/c the flop. With more limpers inbetween a c/r might be good to charge the flush draws. I´d go $110 or $125 if that was the plan.

Are we trying to keep middle PP´s, Q´s interested with our smallish turn sizing?

Not betting the river seems really bad on paper. Did you put him on QQ, 77, or AA? Those are only 5 combos in the deck (only two if 77 is not in his range). Maybe you thought he might raise w. AQ, AK and blow us out of the pot?
AQ River Decision Quote
08-27-2015 , 10:45 PM
The preflop decision to flat I think is ok. I really don't want to fold and I really don't want to boost the pot OOP 180bb deep. As played I really don't like the check raise because it's basically over represents our hand and makes it really hard to be called by worse. We also have he A of clubs so that takes away from a lot of the flush draw combos villan has.

I think check call bet fold turn and bet fold river is best IMO. We don't allow turn to check through and get value from Qx and draws. Maybe even some under pairs etc.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-28-2015 , 09:42 AM
Thanks for the replies.

I chalk this up to an attack of FPS. I was running over the table and decided to do something non-standard, which is seldom +EV.

Results are irrelevant, so I'll put them in spoiler tags.

Spoiler:
I flipped over my top 2 pair. Villain nods his head and flips over 22. Had I played the hand better from the flop on and check-called all the way, I'd probably have lost the same amount. I guess I should've thanked him for not betting the river.
AQ River Decision Quote
08-28-2015 , 09:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
Thanks for the replies.

I chalk this up to an attack of FPS. I was running over the table and decided to do something non-standard, which is seldom +EV.

Results are irrelevant, so I'll put them in spoiler tags.

Spoiler:
I flipped over my top 2 pair. Villain nods his head and flips over 22. Had I played the hand better from the flop on and check-called all the way, I'd probably have lost the same amount. I guess I should've thanked him for not betting the river.
Wow really terrible X back by him there

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