V: ($550) SB early 40s AG. Seems TAG and haven't seen him get out of line with anything up to this hand
H ($600): been a little roller coastery in this session. Lossed first buyin on first hand with AA with a flopped set. A few orbits later doubled up second buyin with FH over FH. Was generally only raising when entering pots and getting flops that made sense to c-bet.
OTTH:
H - AQ off in CO raises to $15 after two limpers.
V calls in the BB. One limper calls
F: ($45) AJ3r
checks to H who bets $20. V calls, limper folds (probably could have bet more but on a dry A high board this is a standard c-bet with my entire range)
T: ($85) 6 (i think there was a BD heart draw now)
V leads for $40.
V: ($550) SB early 40s AG. Seems TAG and haven't seen him get out of line with anything up to this hand
H ($600): been a little roller coastery in this session. Lossed first buyin on first hand with AA with a flopped set. A few orbits later doubled up second buyin with FH over FH. Was generally only raising when entering pots and getting flops that made sense to c-bet.
OTTH:
H - AQ off in CO raises to $15 after two limpers.
V calls in the BB. One limper calls
F: ($45) AJ3r
checks to H who bets $20. V calls, limper folds (probably could have bet more but on a dry A high board this is a standard c-bet with my entire range)
T: ($85) 6 (i think there was a BD heart draw now)
V leads for $40.
H...?
Just 15? Why only 5x over two limpers? I usually 6x as a minimum and at this limit I'd probably go like 20-25.
I like flop. I like making small bets on dry A high board for value and as bluffs.
I'd just call. Bet isn't too big but we're way overrepping our hand with a raise. He's gonna have weaker aces trying to avoid calling a bigger bet, 54s, random stupid stuff. Sometimes you'll be beat too.
Being this deep I don't mind preflop nor the result (narrowed field to 3way with a playable SPR in position).
I'm either/or on the flop. I'm totally fine with betting smallish like we've done, or even just checking behind some of the time too. Against guys less likely to get out-of-line / bluff into weakness I probably lean to the small bet.
Against someone who hasn't gotten out-of-line we have to at least consider exiting on the turn. But thanks to the small bets both on the flop and turn, I think I'm seeing a river. If he donks the river (even when everything busts), I think we strongly have to consider a fold unless he has shown he's capable of barrelling draws that he's picked up.
I had been raising a bunch with a general raise ranging from $15-18 (unless there was a straddle). I noticed I was getting a decent amount of limp folds regardless of the size and the more predictive factor of getting a lot of callers was whether the person one or two to the left of me called. If one of them called it was more likely to get a train of callers.
Well maybe the V has 54 and had the gutter and maybe some doubt about your Ace. It's the only line here that makes a ton of sense.
It's possible he picked up a FD on turn too with 5h4h. If so, he's got 16 river outs. Or he has JJ here too sometimes. I don't particularly like 3b JJ oop from the blinds against a TAG like Hero.
You get 3-1 to call. He'll miss over half the time he's not already made a hand. So it's a good price. Xc non-2,7,h rivers.
Well maybe the V has 54 and had the gutter and maybe some doubt about your Ace. It's the only line here that makes a ton of sense.
It's possible he picked up a FD on turn too with 5h4h. If so, he's got 16 river outs. Or he has JJ here too sometimes. I don't particularly like 3b JJ oop from the blinds against a TAG like Hero.
You get 3-1 to call. He'll miss over half the time he's not already made a hand. So it's a good price. Xc non-2,7,h rivers.
Yeah, during the hand, when he bet out I assumed he had JJ, 33, 66, A3, AJ, A6 or maybe Ax (possibly with a flush draw now).
I probably make a sigh call due to "pot odds" or whatever.
But the more I play, the more I realize we really have to be up against a real idiot to end up being good enough of the time. A not-getting-out-of-line guy just doesn't take this line enough OOP with draws picking up equity, nor do they value-town themselves enough with AQ/AT after we're still here on the river (plus they hate opening the door with their showdownable hand to possibly get raised). Mostly they just know we can't ever fold for this price and make decent coin with their two pear or whatever thanks to three streets worth of small postflop bets.
Guy could be leading with any A when he sees the FD come. Everyone sucks. Call calling sucks more, but you just don't know anything and you have a strong enough hand even facing bets.
I'd guess he has a weak ace-high flush draw and is playing it poorly. Nothing else makes much sense. Call turn, call river. If he has two pair with the flush draw, that's tough luck, but he would've had to flop two pair and then donk a flush draw and I don't see the thinking there. JJ or 33 wouldn't play it like this since you were already betting for him (he has to have put you on an ace here). If he's got you, nh, but I'm sure call and call is profitable here
FWIW, this is like a pretty standard line for a set / two pear OOP, especially not very multiway on a dry board. Not saying that's enough reason to fold, just sayin'.
You can't fold the turn, ever. You will be exploited if you do.
Given the river bet, I think you also have to call. It's $65 into $165, for 3.5 to 1 pot odds. If V had a big hand on the flop, I would have expected him to check the turn to you, or bet more on the turn. If V had that same big hand, he should bet more on the river as well. My guess is V is making a blocking bet with a medium strength hand so he can avoid having to call a bigger bet.
FWIW, this is like a pretty standard line for a set / two pear OOP, especially not very multiway on a dry board. Not saying that's enough reason to fold, just sayin'.
I tried to figure out what I could beat that would have played the hand this way. I didn't think AT or A9 would play it this way. So maybe Ax with a missed flush. But even then he probably check calls. I really wanted to fold and was mad at myself that I didn't because I really couldn't figure out what I beat that this player would play this way. I assumed I was going to see AJ or A6. But, I was really surprised to see what he had...he had AK.
Maybe he figured that he would lead out on turn to see if i raise or not. I can't imagine a raise without 2p+ would be a very profitable play here against most 2/3 Vs.
Do you guys really think a "not out of line player" bluffs or value bets worse here >22% of the time? I would think the actual % is closer to 10-15% on this type of board. I probably should/could have saved $65.
It's a difficult question. As I say, the more I play the more I feel this river call given this overall action is very dicey, but we need such solid reads to do otherwise getting these odds that I don't think it can be a massive mistake to call.
This is also partly why checking back the flop is never horrible (especially without TK). We'd rather not put in 3 bets postflop against most opponents with TP2K (especially when TP3K outflopped us) so a flop check back helps this.
You could have held off results for 24 hours to get more replies without bias but I can tell you I'd play this exactly the same except I'd bet a smidge more OTF. Calling turn and river is trivial IMO vs. a guy you don't have a lot of game time with, shrug and move on.
You could have held off results for 24 hours to get more replies without bias but I can tell you I'd play this exactly the same except I'd bet a smidge more OTF. Calling turn and river is trivial IMO vs. a guy you don't have a lot of game time with, shrug and move on.
