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AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? AQ flop shove. Ok or spew?

02-09-2016 , 11:51 PM
1/2 last night at a very loose aggressive table. Bad loose aggressive. Maybe after this hand I fall in as part of the 'bad loose' category.

Effective stacks are $200. 3 limpets to me in the CO and I raise to $15

V1: limp calling standard loose passive player calls from UG+1
V2 loose aggressive player who's stack has dropped from $500 to $200 in the last 30 mins.

V1 and V2 call

Flop: 433r

Checks around to me and I cbet $25 on the relatively dry board. V1 folds and V2 min raises to $50.

Now normally in these spots to check raises at 1/2 I'm folding pretty quickly. Folding TPTK a lot of the time and always folding air. But in this spot I thought V2 was capable of a c/r bluff on the dry board that misses all my pfr except my big pairs. V2s limp calling range is really wide. All pairs, all suited connectors, gappers, Broadway's. Off suit 78,89,9T, ect. Suited aces.

88+ I think he's going to pfr most of the time.

So the c/r seems fishy to me. What is he doing this with 55,66,77,88? It could be a hand with equity like 46. Maybe A3? 44 is probably too strong.

Because of this thought process I decide to shove. Villian has $135 behind.

Spew or ok?
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 12:13 AM
I think you wasted a medium strength hand by turning it into a bluff here. If you think he's FOS I'd much rather call him down and take the b/3! line with hands which can't do so profitably. Take this line with overpairs and hands like T9s which have no SDV and still have two overs to most of his calling range.

Both of your ranges are mostly air and you beat 100% of his air. Just call down.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 12:28 AM
Unless you have seen him minraise bluff in similar spots folding here is best. Especially vs this villain, you will have plenty of opportunities to get in a better spot. I doubt villain is minraising here with air. If you can get villain to fold a bunch of PP's and 4's by shoving I guess its ok but based on villians description I get the feeling that he doesn't plan on folding. I would classify this as spew. Hopefully he folded though.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 12:44 AM
Ck back flop, fold turn unimp. Sounds like a good situation, but you're gonna need to flop some equity in such a high var game with 200 eff stacks.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 12:51 AM
as someone suggested you can close your eyes and call him down if you think he has air a lot here

shoving doesn't accomplishes much, he'll fold his air and probably still call with 4x+

if he folds 4x and some pp's then shoving is the best play
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 12:52 AM
I like the bluff. Villain might raise-fold a weak overpair, 4x, or other non-paired hands. Sometimes 'bad lags' also make loose calls. Make sure your villain can fold something like 66 before making a bluff.

It's also fine to check the flop. No one will believe you hit it. Any pp will call/raise, some high card hands will float, and some lags will bluff. When you check, you have 6 outs to hit against pp and encourage dominated hands to stick around. You call also safely fold if the turn action blows up and someone slowplayed 3x.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 01:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
I think you wasted a medium strength hand by turning it into a bluff here. If you think he's FOS I'd much rather call him down and take the b/3! line with hands which can't do so profitably. Take this line with overpairs and hands like T9s which have no SDV and still have two overs to most of his calling range.

Both of your ranges are mostly air and you beat 100% of his air. Just call down.
Dang. This is an idea of didn't think of. Not even in post session. I'm kind of embarrassed to admit.

You're right tho. I've got a titling lag who's c/raised on a dry board and I don't believe him. If I just flat, there is a good shot he'll shove the turn and I could call down.

If I don't believe him, it's better than a shove
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 01:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
I think you wasted a medium strength hand by turning it into a bluff here. If you think he's FOS I'd much rather call him down and take the b/3! line with hands which can't do so profitably. Take this line with overpairs and hands like T9s which have no SDV and still have two overs to most of his calling range.

Both of your ranges are mostly air and you beat 100% of his air. Just call down.
Dang. This is an idea of didn't think of. Not even post session. I'm kind of embarrassed to admit.

You're right tho. I've got a titling lag who's c/raised on a dry board and I don't believe him. If I just flat, there is a good shot he'll shove the turn and I could call down.

If I don't believe him, it's better than a shove
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
shoving doesn't accomplishes much, he'll fold his air
Actually, it accomplishes a lot by folding out his pair equity vs A high.

It's still a low quality bluff that gets called way too often and all the way down to 26o which will realize it's 35% on its own.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 01:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Actually, it accomplishes a lot by folding out his pair equity vs A high.

It's still a low quality bluff that gets called way too often and all the way down to 26o which will realize it's 35% on its own.
it's just a math question, getting an extra 135$ while he has little equity or making him fold it and letting him have his 135$

i am bad at math and too lazy, but i kinda want that last 135$ with ace high you know
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 05:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
it's just a math question, getting an extra 135$ while he has little equity or making him fold it and letting him have his 135$

i am bad at math and too lazy, but i kinda want that last 135$ with ace high you know
There is value in getting villain to fold anything >= a gutshot. Even K5+BDFD only has ~30% equity where he would need ~32% to call. Some non-dominated hands such as 98 no BDFD have as little as ~21% equity.

I'm going to give 25% equity for the air range we're targetting when we flat call (seems reasonable by playing with ranges). I'm assuming that he treats his entire air range the same and that he folds it when we shove the flop.

If he doesn't bluff his air on the turn it's a mistake to call the flop and let him freeroll us. There is some turn bluff frequency, 'b', where we meet the EV of a flop shove.

We win the pot with a flop shove, so after we call our EV needs to be the size of the pot on the turn to be at least as good.

P = b*(.75*(P+270)-135)+(1-b)*.75P
P = b(.75P+.75*270-135-.75P)+.75P
b = P/(3*270-4*135)
= ~54%

If Villain continues to bluff >54% of the time on the turn (regardless of whether or not he hits the turn) it is better than shoving the flop with respect to the air portion of his range.

If villain ever hits SDV on the turn and checks to us that is very good for us. We might also be able to further improve the EV of a call by folding or bluffing certain turns when checked to, like Kx.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 05:55 AM
I would call the min raise and evaluate on the Turn to see if it can go c/c if you think you're still behind and if you hit one of your overs. By shoving you're putting too much at risk if he has anything - 22+, A3, A4, 34, 45, etc.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 10:01 AM
I would fold and wait for a better spot but if I was very sure he had nothing I would shove in....not try to call him down. You have no idea what he has or what his turn plan is. Lets say he has JT. That doesnt mean his plan is to shove any turn. I min check raise flops like this sometimes.

When villain min check raises it looks like a big hand. It could be a middle pair but could easily be a 3. Alot of preflop raisers will fold if they dont have a big pocket pair. So there's a decent amount of FE. Villain raised $50 and there was $70ish in the pot so only has to work like 40% of the time. If I do this and get called, Im giving up unless I hit the turn. So if I had JT Im shoving any J or T turn and giving up the rest of the time. Of course if your plan is to call me down, you are calling my shove on any turn so you should've just shoved the flop.......or better yet, just folded.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote
02-10-2016 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I would fold and wait for a better spot but if I was very sure he had nothing I would shove in....not try to call him down. You have no idea what he has or what his turn plan is. Lets say he has JT. That doesnt mean his plan is to shove any turn. I min check raise flops like this sometimes.

When villain min check raises it looks like a big hand. It could be a middle pair but could easily be a 3. Alot of preflop raisers will fold if they dont have a big pocket pair. So there's a decent amount of FE. Villain raised $50 and there was $70ish in the pot so only has to work like 40% of the time. If I do this and get called, Im giving up unless I hit the turn. So if I had JT Im shoving any J or T turn and giving up the rest of the time. Of course if your plan is to call me down, you are calling my shove on any turn so you should've just shoved the flop.......or better yet, just folded.
a lot of players don't know when to stop bluffing

it's pretty obvious to most of us when hero calls the flop raise he will call down any run out but I doubt V is good enough to know this. if he does our reads are wrong. you exploit this tendency when you call him down because he'll put you on AK and thinks you'll fold ace high

ace high is a very good hand on paired board, sure it's vulnerable but if you get him to put his whole stack drawing to 6 outs & some backdoors sometimes, with a 6 outs redraw yourself, you crush him.. not to mention he'll have stuff like QT QJ sometimes that we destroy equity wise.
AQ flop shove. Ok or spew? Quote

      
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