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Old 08-19-2016, 01:50 AM   #1
Kler
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AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

1/3, 300 eff., hero just sat down at table and orbit ago and doesn't really know villain at all, but he seems like a strong player. Table is actually much tougher than usual, and there are lots of regs who often play 2/5, but there's no 2/5 running tonight, so it's 1/3. Villain doesn't know hero, but I've folded every hand for the past orbit.

Hero is on BTN. with AQ, three limpers and hero raises to 20. Villain in SB calls, limpers calls, 5 way to the flop.

Flop (100): Q79

Checks to hero who bets 65. Villain calls, others fold.

Turn (230): 5

Villain ponders for some moments and leads 100.

Hero? Thinks this is a pretty unusual line and is suspicious and confused, and shoves in the rest, some 180 or so.

Since I don't know villain at all I'm a little worried about the flush, but it's just weird to see someone x/call, hit the flush, then donk the turn, when there's still another street to play and get value. If villain is a strong player as he seems to be, I think it's more likely this is sort of a combo bet, like a QT-QK with a diamond, that may be good, may improve, and may even get better to fold. It could also be several other weakish hands or draws that want to use the scarecard to semi-bluff.

Writing this out now, I'm more confident shoving is the correct play than I was at the time, but I'm still interested in people's thoughts.
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Old 08-19-2016, 02:57 AM   #2
Mattyk1992
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Re: AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

I feel like it could be a set/2p more often then not.

He knows you will check back 100% of hands on this turn thus giving you a free river card to hit a diamond (if we had one).

I don't think it's a flush unless its a low one maybe like 109dd/56dd & same doesn't wanna give you a free river card by checking.

I feel as though this should be a turn fold, I am never calling turn as played.
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Old 08-19-2016, 03:02 AM   #3
Kler
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Re: AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mattyk1992 View Post
I feel like it could be a set/2p more often then not.

He knows you will check back 100% of hands on this turn thus giving you a free river card to hit a diamond (if we had one).

I don't think it's a flush unless its a low one maybe like 109dd/56dd & same doesn't wanna give you a free river card by checking.

I feel as though this should be a turn fold, I am never calling turn as played.
Given that the pot went 5 way and villain is first to act and has everyone else behind him after he calls my bet, I highly doubt he's x/calling sets or two pair on the flop, since this is bad, and he doesn't seem to play bad. Either leading or x/raising would be much more likely, as I see it.
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Old 08-19-2016, 04:44 AM   #4
javi
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Re: AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

I agree that he has simply picked up a few more outs on the turn and thinks he can take control of the pot by betting at it. A lot of live players do this with zero comprehension that you cant just "steal initiative" like that completely disregarding opponent hand ranges (in this case your range).

i've been in this exact spot twice that I can recall in recent history, and both times villain's folded when I raised. Last time was also a 5/10 reg who seems very "meh/average" at the game, and he made a comment like "you shoulda just called buddy" after he folds. Not sure what he meant by this other than he would have donk bluffed the river allin or something? There shouldnt be any hand in my holding that I am going to raise pre, bet flop, call turn donk, and then fold to river donk. So my guess is he is used to these games being very passive and just wasnt expecting another aggressive player at the table.
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Old 08-19-2016, 11:42 AM   #5
gobbledygeek
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Re: AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

I'm assuming we didn't expect to go eleventeen ways to the flop with a $20 raise? Table is described as tough, but is it also quite loose? The looser it is, the bigger I raise preflop after 3 limpers, and would often simply raise to $30 here (10% of stacks) at my loose table.

Unfortunately, quite a gross spot we are now in (which I'm assuming is unexpected). SPR of lol 3, and yet drawy board with TP, having given 4 opponents all 19+ implied odds. I sometimes just commit here with a PSB to setup a shove on the turn, but it's high variance for sure (which is why I do my best to avoid it preflop).

As played, even though we only have a PSB left, I probably make a hero fold, although this might be meh. Dude called the flop with 3 others left to act, so he has to have something. The main draw got there. Even 86 got there. Are we just hoping he's turning Qx into a semi-bluff when he knows he can't fold it (although admittedly we'll see this a lot)? Or semi-bluffing with T8?

ETA: Although good points regarding that a set / two pair probably either donk or check/raise this flop. Definitely more narrows his hands to flush/straight vs Qx.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 08-19-2016, 05:44 PM   #6
javi
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Re: AQ facing a turn donk as flush comes in

geek, most live players have a hard time dealing with reverse implied odds situations. They catch a hand like QJo, hit top pair, but instinctually recognize that if someone is betting hard then there's a very real chance they are beat. To counter this they do things to "make sure they are beat", hence the donkbet. It's sort of like a pre-river blocker bet. Villain knows it will be hard to lay down QJ to a river bet of $200 for example, even though there's no way hero would triple barrel bluff, so instead villain lays himself a price of $100 on the turn to achieve the "same result" in his mind. It's a dumb move because you are forfeiting an extra street. If villain check calls turn he gets to see a potentially very important river for his hand. He has denied himself that option with his donkbet (assuming he gets raised by a better hand 100% of the time). But he also knows it is the only foolproof way to know for certain that he is truly beat so he doesnt have to make an agonizing hero call out of position on the river.

And of course there's always the combo draw effect, whereby if he fears that our turn bet will be more than $100, he can stimey that and keep it at a price he's comfortable with to hit backdoor diamonds or whatever. I've had live players complain when I raise and say things like "arent you afraid of diamonds though? What if I have a set" or some asinine results oriented approach that lets me know they think I should be afraid of every combination of suckout that just hit. Hell 2 nights ago I cbet a T55hh flop 3way and MP makes this complaint, folds his Ten face up out of tilt and says "you dont know if the other guy has a 5, such a stupid bet".
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