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Old 10-19-2016, 01:14 PM   #1
psujohn
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AQ facing flop/turn donk

V has been at the table maybe 3 orbit. He's playing somewhat decent LAG looking. Definitely more aggro than typical and with generally larger sizing than typical in the population. He sat with $200 and has run it up to $350 without showdown.

Hero has AQo in the CO and about $200 effective
2 limpers, Hero $15, SB calls, V calls from BB, 1 limper calls

Flop $62
A96
check, V $25, fold, Hero calls, fold

Turn $112
A96 9
V $75, Hero ???

His flop donk was out of place. I hadn't seen him do this before but small sample size. His sizing was also small for him. Turn sizing is committing and puts stacks in play if we continue.

Anyone raise the flop? Surely we never fold the flop right?
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Old 10-19-2016, 01:30 PM   #2
sierradave
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Re: AQ facing flop/turn donk

I think you need to shove this turn. He has taken a very strong line, but there just aren't many combos he can have that beat you. Factor in the combo draws that he can be semi-bluffing and you're better off shoving now and forcing him to commit stacks with his drawing hands than just calling and evaluating the river.

If he's decent and seems loose-aggressive, then I think we can pretty safely remove AK from his preflop range. He should know better than to call with AK oop against multiple players.

When he bets the flop, let's give him all combo draws (67cc, 68cc, 65cc, 78cc), pocket 9s, pocket 6s, A9, A6, AJ, and A10. He might have weaker aces in his range as well. I'm not prepared to rule them out.

The 9 on the turn is a terrible card for his range. A9 and 66 have now made full houses, sure. 99 has made quads, but probably doesn't immediately bet $75. A6 has just been counterfeited. All the 6x combo draws have just lost their two pair outs.

Would he keep firing with his combo draws, trying to get you to fold medium aces and bigger pairs? Would he slow down and try to trap with his full houses, or does he prefer a bet/bet/bet line with them? Does he overvalue top pair-decent kicker hands?

We've only played three orbits with him, so we don't have strong insights into these questions yet. But it you see him as an aggressive player, then I'm discounting AK and inflating the likelihood that he's overvaluing the fold equity of his combo draws. You're around the top of your range. Gii.
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Old 10-19-2016, 02:28 PM   #3
Amanaplan
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Re: AQ facing flop/turn donk

Shove turn - the 9 is a very good card for you.

Above poster sums things up quite neatly. His range likely includes all FD+gtr and NFDs as well.
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Old 10-19-2016, 02:30 PM   #4
pologuy64
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Re: AQ facing flop/turn donk

Call, Call, seems about right to me. don't like shoving the turn
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