£1/1, effective stack around 250

Villian in UTG +1 raises to 6, Hero in MP calls with 23hh (I know this is -EV but been very card dead and wanted to play). Three more callers.

Flop (30): 4c5cQh

Villians leads for 15, hero calls, rest fold.

Turn (60): 8d

Villian checks, hero bets 35, villian calls.

River (130): 5h

Villian bets 35, Hero raises to 120.

I showed 25cc and won on the river with a straight around an orbit ago, again extremely card dead which was the only reason I played that hand

Is this situation a good spot to bluff. Also sizing wize, is this a good size or should I have shoved for about 190.


Would you guys have played this hand a different way excluding preflop, such as raising flop etc.

Will tell you what villian did after a few replies.

If you think folding for an orbit is "card dead," poker may not be the activity for you.

Just fold pf.

Folding for an orbit is definately not card dead. I only put that in there to give a little more information. By card dead I mean, in the 2 hours before that hand, the best pre-flop hand I got was something like K9 or something, I don't remember. I know to fold preflop which is why I stated in my post that I should fold it. I only play poker around twice a week so I'd rather be a bit -EV and enjoy myself a little more than folding through a card dead session.

But thats not the point, what I am asking for is advice on whether that was a good play or not as other higher suited connectors that is +EV from the LP or multiway limp pots may be in similar situations.

Check/call turn then lead river is usually a VERY strong line in these games. His line is fishy but river leads tend to be strong. You have no relevant card removal, although you do block some of the bluffs you might want villain to have here. You've given us no indication that villain is the type capable of laying down a big hand if he does have one. The only thing *good* about this bluff is that you are at least bluffing with the nut low, so there's that. With the information you've given us, I don't like it. If you tell me you have a read that his river sizing signals weakness and that you know he is capable of folding, then I'm good with it. Your sizing is fine.

Although if maximizing your winrate is your ultimate goal here, you might want to make preflop discipline your focus. Planing 32 and 52 is not winning poker.

Name a single specific combo we block which villain will fold to a raise, which is likely to play this way.

This line is not strong at all with this sizing. This is a blocker bet and he rarely has better than Qx mid kicker, unless he's just really bad at sizing with his value hands.

How does having the nut low help us?

I agree that pre-flop is the biggest issue in this hand.

If you're going to bluff river, shove like you would if you had a real hand.

I guess shouldve given more information but don't have much. Villian seemed relatively tight and he said he often played 25nl online and is a semi-reg but haven't played with him b4. Not much more information than that. If villian had bet the turn I would not have bluffed as the check seemed like he was scared of something. I' m not really sure how check calling turn then betting river (also a small 35 bet) is strong especially when there is a club draw and a straight draw(albeit a low one), would like for you to elaborate if you can.

I put villian on a Qx hand when making the bet. Another reason why I bet is because from my experience in low stakes live poker is that a bet on the river almost always is never a bluff, hence he would have higher fold equity.

I know pre-flop is the biggest issue.

A2/A3 that he decided to make a desperation bluff on the river with. Not a huge part of his range, and blockers aren't particularly relevant here.

Really bad at sizing is a pretty common theme at LLSNL. The bet is not particularly scary, but I have seen the nuts play this way often enough that I'm not weighting his range towards weaker holding just based on bet size. In general check/call turn lead river is a strong line.

From a purely mathematical standpoint we gain the most when we turn the weakest parts of our range into bluffs. We have 0% equity against his range on this river. Most other hands we get to the river with here will have some equity as bluff catchers, so turning them into bluffs isn't as big of an EV swing as using this hand. Card removal is usually a better way to construct a bluff range, but that's not always particularly relevant, so in that case, it's best to start at the bottom of your range and work up. Although in these games I'm usually not in the business of using GTO concepts for constructing bluffs. The population calls far too often, so without some stronger reads on his folding tendencies and what this sizing means, I'm not pulling this trigger.

Shove OTR is better imo, you need to have a read he can lay down top pair

Maybe. I would expect those to double-barrel rather than check/call, but people play weird.


You're right about LLSNL being terrible about bet sizing, but I'm going to disagree with the rest and claim that bet-sizing tells pretty reliable.


I think we both understand these concepts, but let me clarify for those who don't. Ignoring blockers, all hands that would otherwise be in our folding range are equal as bluffs. If we are folding QT on this river it's exactly the same EV to bluff with it as 32s, even though it's much higher in our range. I'd actually argue that it's better to choose bluffs from the top of our folding range rather than the bottom if we don't understand blockers, because the quality of blocking effects generally has a positive correlation with the position of a combo in our range.

If we are facing a check, it makes sense to choose bluffs from the bottom up because even fairly weak hands can check back and sometimes win. It wouldn't make sense to bluff with AK-high when we can beat missed draws, but check with 3-high.

You absolutely should be using these concepts to construct a bluffing range. However, it's very reasonable to exploitatively not have a bluffing range at all if you decide even the best bluffs won't be profitable.

I think most people don't bluff enough due to the stereotype that LLSNL doesn't fold enough. IME live 1|2 is a mixed bag. While there are a lot of players who won't fold TP with a gun to their head, there are a very significant number of players who won't stack off with one pair. Scared money is much more common at 1|2 than higher stakes.

In the end Villian folded and showed AQcc for TPTK. So the bluff worked but still not sure if that is the correct play in the long-run.